我国居民消费增长的未来趋势与现实抑制

经济增速维持高位、就业形势趋好、收入分配格局改善等利好因素支撑着我国居民消费的长期增长趋势。但是,消费率偏低仍然是困扰我国经济发展方式转变的主要困难。收入分配差距大、公共服务不健全、消费环境不佳、通货膨胀、外部不确定性等矛盾同时制约着消费增长。必须长期制度创新与短期政策优化相结合,力促居民消费增长。     

Unveiling ways to reach organic purchase: Green perceived value,perceived knowledge,attitude, subjective norm,and trust

This paper aims to investigate organic food consumption based on the perspectives of an extended research model by integrating the theory of consumption value (TCV) and the theory of reasoned action (TRA). First, we tried to find out how five consumption values of functional, social, emotional, conditional, and epistemic in classic TCV influence consumption choice especially in the sustainable consumption domain of organic food, interpreted as green perceived value (GPV) in the reflective-reflective second-order latent. Second, as an attempt to extend the classic TRA, this study included trust and perceived knowledge in the research model in addition to the subjective norm, attitude, and behavioral intention. A partial least square structural equation method (PLS-SEM) was adopted to examine our research model with 251 samples. Our results revealed that GPV significantly affects consumer attitudes. Consumer attitudes and subjective norms also have a significantly positive effect on purchase intention. As an extended TRA, GPV has a significantly positive effect on trust while trust significantly impacts purchase intention. Further, perceived knowledge positively influences attitude and trust. By jointly considering TCV and TRA, this study proposes several implications emphasizing how GPV and perceived knowledge affects consumers’ organic food consumption choice based on the role of increased trust.     

The visible hand: the role of government in China’s long-awaited industrial revolution

China is undergoing its long-awaited industrial revolution. There is no shortage of commentary and opinion on this dramatic period, but few have attempted to provide a coherent, in-depth, political-economic framework that explains the fundamental mechanisms behind China’s rapid industrialization. This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen (2016a). This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen . It illuminates the critical sequence of developmental stages since the reforms enacted by Deng Xiaoping in 1978: namely, small-scale commercialized agricultural production, proto-industrialization in the countryside, a formal industrial revolution based on mass production of labor-intensive light consumer goods, a sustainable ‘industrial trinity’ boom in energy/motive power/infrastructure, and a second industrial revolution involving the mass production of heavy industrial goods. This developmental sequence follows essentially the same pattern as Great Britain’s Industrial Revolution, despite sharp differences in political and institutional conditions. One of the key conclusions exemplified by China’s economic rise is that the extent of industrialization is limited by the extent of the market. One of the key strategies behind the creation and nurturing of a continually growing market in China is based on this premise: The free market is a public good that is very costly for nations to create and support. Market creation requires a powerful ‘mercantilist’ state and the correct sequence of developmental stages; China has been successfully accomplishing its industrialization through these stages, backed by measured, targeted reforms and direct participation from its central and local governments.     

大连小南村乡村旅游发展路径研究

乡村旅游是以具有乡村性的自然和人文客体为旅游吸引物,依托农村区域的优美景观、自然环境等资源,在传统农村休闲游和农业体验游的基础上,拓展开发会务度假、休闲娱乐等项目的新兴旅游方式。大连小南村乡村旅游发展存在乡村旅游设施有待完善、乡村景区系统化规则缺乏、从业人员素质不高、乡村旅游景区管理体系不完善等相关问题,应该采取加大基础设施建设力度、完善景区系统化规则、积极推进景区工作人员能力培养、完善乡村旅游管理体系等解决方法,促进乡村旅游业的发展。     

最优能源强度与我国经济增长

本文通过一个内生增长模型对能源消费与经济增长的关系进行了分析,证实存在使经济增长率最大化的最优能源强度,并且最优能源强度与能源价格反方向变动.在此基础上,估计了近年来我国的最优能源强度,并测算了实际能源强度与最优值的差距.结果表明,近年来我国实际能源强度高于最优值达3万吨标准煤/亿元以上,且有不断上升的趋势.最后提出了在保持最优能源强度的前提下降低能源消耗的政策建议.     

国有企业转型过程中宏观与微观权力关系的渐进式变革

随着企业转型,企业的宏观权力关系从完全附属于政府主管部门、"五龙治水"、国资委统一行使所有者职能、到海外投资者对国有股东形成制衡.在微观权力关系上,企业的经营者由政府官员性质、行政性"内部人控制"问题的产生,到海外投资者选派的独立董事代表的进入,加强了对"内部人控制"问题的约束.总的来看,这种政府主导型的改革对企业转型和宏观权力关系产生了显著影响,但微观权力格局的转换仍然相当艰难.     

基于层次分析法的农村居民消费结构研究

农村居民的消费结构是否合理直接关系到产业结构、流通结构、分配结构乃至整个国民经济结构的合理化程度。寻求农村居民合理的消费结构,是拉动农村消费市场,实现我国经济持续增长的必然选择。本文运用层次分析法,确定了农村居民消费结构合理化的指标体系,并对其重要性进行了排序,进而提出相关的政策建议。     

个人所得税改革对居民消费的效应评价与完善路径

当前我国居民消费不足的最主要原因在于居民收入水平不高、国民收入分配失衡,所以2018年个人所得税改革的重点是提高费用扣除标准、调整税率结构,降低纳税人负担,增加纳税人可支配收入,提高居民消费水平。要进一步促进居民消费,个人所得税有必要继续减税,同时进一步调节收入分配差距,使收入分配更加公平。具体对策包括:将专项附加扣除中的子女教育支出范围扩大为子女养育支出,增加家庭合并征税模式,费用扣除标准指数化动态调整,进一步优化税率结构,建立负所得税制度。     

中国城镇家庭能源贫困评估*——基于微观调查数据的研究

我国扶贫工作重点已进入新阶段,从消除绝对贫困向缓解发展不平衡、不充分的相对贫困转变,从解决收入贫困向解决多维贫困转变,从重点解决农村贫困问题向统筹城乡扶贫转变。能源是人民生活质量的重要指标,能有效反映福利水平。了解我国城镇家庭能源消费的基本特征、准确测度能源贫困水平与分布,有助于为今后扶贫工作提供资料基础和科学管理依据。本文构建消费者能源消费决策分析框架,并运用第一次中国家庭能源消费调查数据,考察居民收入与能源消费之间的关系,并对中国城镇家庭能源贫困状况进行测度。研究发现,居民收入与能源消费之间存在S型非线性关系,能源价格、家庭特征、地域特征等因素在能源消费决策中都发挥重要影响。我国城镇家庭相对能源贫困较为严重,主要表现为能源可支付性问题。能源贫困率在20%左右,其中电力贫困程度更为严重,超过25%。家庭收入增长、户主受教育程度提高、城市电力基础设施的普及、城市环境规制水平的提升会显著降低城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性,而电力价格上涨会显著增加城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的概率。     

中国城市居民收入和储蓄增长对家庭能耗碳排放的区域异质性及政策应对

估计和预测城市居民收入变化对家庭能源消费碳排放的影响,对城市家庭消费部门构建低碳能源供应体系,应对气候变化具有重要意义。论文首先估计了中国284个地级以上城市的家庭三类能源消费的直接碳排放量,建立了面板固定效应模型来识别城市家庭能耗碳排放增长和变化的驱动因素。研究结果表明:城市居民收入的快速增长与储蓄水平的提高对于家庭碳排放有显著影响;城市家庭收入和储蓄的增加会抑制家庭燃气碳排放的产生,但对于城市家庭用电碳排放和城市家庭采暖碳排放,则表现出显著的推动作用。此外,研究还发现了家庭碳排放的影响因素存在显著的区域异质性。