Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

《萨班斯法案》孰是孰非:基于成本与效率(收益)的分析视角

《萨班斯法案》的出台堪称注册会计师行业的一件大事，从理论上看，该法案各项条款的出台确实具有积极的意义，但仍然存在缺陷，它更多地强调监管的作用，而监管的效率往往不如制衡的效率；它更多地强调经济处罚和刑事处罚的作用，而这两种处罚却必须以民事赔偿为前提，并最终使作假行为的作假成本大大高于作假收益。     

基于顾客导向的物流企业风险预警

文中通过回顾企业风险预警管理相关文献,分析了物流企业风险形成主要影响因素,并结合物流企业运营特征,建立基于顾客导向的物流企业预警指标体系,运用灰关联分析方法评价物流企业顾客满意度,对物流企业的风险进行预警。     

Preventing HIV in injection drug users: exploring the tradeoffs between interventions

Injection drug users (IDUs) transmit the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via both needle sharing and sex. Available interventions for this population have varying costs and effectiveness and focus on different risk behaviors. In this analysis, we look at two interventions. One is inexpensive, broad-based and provides modest risk reductions (street outreach (SO)); the other is narrowly focused, expensive and relatively effective (methadone maintenance). This analysis explores the effects of population risk behavior, intervention effectiveness, intervention costs, and decision constraints when allocating funds between these two interventions to maximize effectiveness. We develop a model of the spread of HIV, dividing IDUs into susceptibles (uninfected) and infectives, and separately portraying sex and injection risk. We simulate the epidemic in New York City for time periods from the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, and incorporate the behavioral effects of two interventions performed singly or in combination to find the allocation that maximizes the number of infections averted in the IDUs and their noninjecting sex partners, assuming interventions have increasing marginal costs. We find that the optimal allocation nearly always involves spending the maximum allowable amount on SO. This result is largely insensitive to variations in risk parameters, intervention efficacy, or cost. The model's structure, however, makes clear that many factors contribute to this insensitivity, namely the scope of the interventions, the dual drug/sex nature of HIV risk in the population, the asymmetry of sexual risk for men and women, and the potential benefits to nonIDUs.     

Selecting Sites for New Facilities Using Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper develops a mathematical programming model for obtaining a best set of sites for planned facilities. The model is concerned with those situations where resource constraints are present. The specific setting for the paper involves the selection of sites for a set of retail outlets, wherein the ratio of aggregate outputs to inputs for the selected set is maximal among all possible sets that could be chosen. At the same time, the model guarantees that the only sets of stores allowable are those for which the available resources are used to the maximum extent possible.     

湿地公路与农田水利建设关系分析

湿地因其特殊的自然状况，公路交通建设投资大，成绩显著，但农田水利设施损失严重，正确处理好湿地公路建设与农田水利建设的矛盾，有利于发展交通建设和解决三农问题。文章从公路交通与农田水利现状分析出发，试图找到湿地交通发展与农田水利建设的平衡点，形成公路建设，农田水利建设共同发展的良好循环。     

Hybrid governance and governance performance in industrial purchasing relationships

Hybrid governance arrangements (e.g. joint action, long-term contracting and vertical coordination) feature regularly as an effective response to inter-firm dependence in the literature of business-to-business relationships. However, current empirical work has paid little attention to whether such governance arrangements really do improve governance efficacy and reduce transaction costs. The present study focuses on the governance efficacy of vertical coordination in industrial business-to-business relationships. Building on transaction costs arguments, the author examines whether vertical coordination is an effective means for adapting to inter-firm dependence, realized as the substantial employment of specific assets.Empirical findings from a survey of 170 industrial supplier–buyer relationships demonstrate that when asset specificity reaches a certain level, greater vertical coordination reduces ex post transaction costs significantly. On the other hand, this efficacy pattern is modest or non-existent in relationships with low asset specificity.The research findings support the basic TCA assumption that the performance of hybrid governance arrangements is highly dependent on a situation of substantial inter-firm dependence with subsequent small-number conditions.     

The Measurement of Consumption Efficiency Considering the Discrete Choice of Consumers

In this study we propose a mathematical definition of the consumption efficiency of multi-attribute products in the price–quality space. A new model, the discrete Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) model, is suggested as an empirical tool to measure the level of consumption efficiency. We further discuss the effect of consumption efficiency on the innovation incentive. Empirical work is made for the mobile phone market. We expect that the consumption efficiency concept will contribute to the extension of the traditional framework of production efficiency analysis on the one hand and to the understanding of the nature of innovation in a technology-intensive market on the other hand.JEL Classification: C67, D11, D12, D21     

江西大型企业资本运作模式的现状及其改进对策研究

资本运作是一种有效配置资源、实现企业资本增殖的活动,其核心是产权制度创新。本文对江西大型企业资本运作模式的现状进行了分析,进而提出了一系列的合理的改进对策,以期提高起运作绩效。     

How Fast Do Banks Adjust? A Dynamic Model of Labor-Use with an Application to Swedish Banks

This paper deals with a dynamic adjustment process in which adjustment of a key variable input (labor) towards its desired level is modeled in a panel data context. The partial adjustment type model is extended to make the adjustment parameter both firm- and time-specific by specifying it as a function of firm- and time-specific variables. Desired level of labor use is represented by a labor requirement function, which is a function of outputs and other firm-specific variables. The catch-up factor is defined as the ratio of actual to desired level of employment. Productivity growth is then defined in terms of a shift in the desired level of labor use and the change in the catch-up factor. Swedish banking data is used as an application of the above model.