Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle

Overconfidence is a widely documented phenomenon. In this paper, we study the implications of consumer overconfidence in a life-cycle consumption/saving model. Our main analytical result is a necessary and sufficient condition under which any degree of overconfidence concerning the mean return on savings can produce a hump in the work-life consumption profile. This condition is almost always met in the data. We show by simulations that overconfidence concerning the variance of the return can have little effect on the long-run average behavior of consumption over the life cycle, and that our basic conclusion is fairly robust with various realistic modifications to the baseline model. We interpret the general applicability of our analytical framework and discuss our numerical results in the light of aggregate consumption data.     

关于我国宏观税负与经济增长的思考

宏观税负是反映政府经济规模及政府干预市场能力大小的一个重要的宏观经济指标.本文从理论与实证两个角度对宏观税负之于经济增长的影响进行了分析,认为过高的宏观税负不利于经济增长,并针对我国目前预算内的宏观税负水平不高但实际宏观税负却比较沉重的情况提出了一系列建议.     

砼受压柱箍筋间距的计算

本文利用弹性稳定理论推导了砼结构中箍筋问距的计算公式，并给出了计算实例。     

板级立体组装侧板垂直互联技术

通过对板级立体组装的侧板垂直互联技术进行研究,找到了板级垂直互联的一种可靠的理论途径,很好地解决了板间垂直互联的问题,实现了板级立体组装的侧板垂直互联工艺技术.     

文化符号在产品品牌形象塑造中的应用

利用文化符号塑造产品品牌形象对企业的发展十分重要。利用文化符号塑造产品的品牌形象需要多角度、全方位地打造。形态文化符号可以塑造产品品牌的外在美,语言文化符号可以提升品牌的附加值,而具有文化内涵的传播媒介符号可以打造产品品牌的亲和力。     

交通运输业是国土资源经济全局的循环系统

各类交通运输设施网络是十三亿百姓生存空间的循环系统,也是提高国土资源使用价值和物化劳动价值的能动性因素。迄今为止的运输经济学虽言称要涉及到微观经济和宏观经济两个方面,但是常止于把宏观效益视为各个运输环节单一价值要素迭加而成的所谓国内生产总值。然而,运输体系各个环节收支对比的总和仍然只是其微观效益,它的宏观效益是增减该环节对国土经济全局的实际影响,即所谓增益弹性,它必将牵动整个社会和国际间的诸多方面。     

大学生心理健康教育存在的问题及对策分析

大学生作为中国社会文化层次较高的群体,其全面发展的程度直接影响我国社会的发展,而健康心理是大学生全面发展的重要内容,也是大学生全面发展的重要条件。目前有相当数量的在校生均存在不同程度的心理障碍,这一问题已引起了当前社会各界的普遍关注。本文从大学生心理健康的标准谈起,对大学生心理健康的成因进行了详细分析,并提出了对策。     

闽粤两省经济发展比较

同处于泛珠三角的闽粤两省经济,是中国“两岸三地”经济发展的一个重要前沿动力板块。本文对闽粤两省经济发展形态与阶段进行比较,总结了两省在发展阶段、经济结构与发展动力、经济质量与人均水平的不同,并就此提出了对策建议。     

浅谈供应链环境下企业应急管理

随着各类突发事件造成的供应链中断的案例不断发生,研究当供应链受到突发事件的影响下,企业如何能快速有效地恢复到正常的运营状态,即建立应对突发事件的供应链应急管理机制和策略,是当前供应链管理研究的热点问题。本文首先将突发事件分成自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件和社会安全事件,并提出相应的应急管理策略。再分析供应链突发事件存在的内部和外部风险因素。最后,本文介绍了在供应链环境中企业应急管理的策略,希望能够在面临突发事件时,对中外企业如何应急管理提供一些参考。     

Uncertainty and crude oil market volatility: new evidence

ABSTRACT

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the predictability of five economic uncertainty indices for oil price volatility in a changing world. We employ the standard predictive regression framework, several model combination approaches, as well as two prevailing model shrinkage methods to evaluate the performances of the uncertainty indices. The empirical results based on simple autoregression models including only one index suggest that global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and US equity market volatility (EMV) indices have significant predictive power for crude oil market volatility. In addition, the model combination approaches adopted in this paper can improve slightly the performances of individual autoregressive models. Lastly, the two model shrinkage methods, namely Elastin net and Lasso, outperform other individual AR-type model and combination models in most forecasting cases. Other empirical results based on alternative forecasting methods, estimation window sizes, high/low volatility and economic expansion/recession time periods further make sure the robustness of our major conclusions. The findings in this paper also have several important economic implications for oil investors.