Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting

This paper compares the forecast performance of automatic leading indicators (ALIs) and macroeconometric structural models (MESMs) commonly used by non-academic macroeconomists. Inflation and GDP growth form the forecast objects for comparison, using data from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. ALIs are found to outperform MESMs for one-period-ahead forecasts, but this superiority disappears as the forecast horizon increases. It is also found that ALIs involve greater uncertainty in choosing indicators, mixing data frequencies and utilizing unrestricted VARs. Two ways of reducing the uncertainty are explored: (i) give theory priority in choosing indicators, and include theory-based disequilibrium shocks in the indicator sets; and (ii) reduce the VARs by means of the general-to-specific modeling procedure.     

考虑合谋和声誉的高能耗企业碳减排主体间博弈分析

在考虑企业和地方政府的声誉的基础上,分析了高能耗企业碳减排中各主体及其行为倾向,构建了中央政府与地方政府间、地方政府与高能耗企业间的博弈模型,并分析了两模型的混合策略均衡解。研究结果表明:提高中央政府的检查效率、降低检查成本、加大惩罚力度、提高声誉对地方政府和企业的影响、提高地方政府做假时需付出的伪装成本,可以有效制约地方政府和高能耗企业的欺骗及做假行为。最后,提出了提高高能耗企业减排积极性、避免企业与地方政府合谋行为发生的政策建议。     

Microfoundations

This paper argues that the microfoundations programme can be understood as an implementation of an underlying methodological principle—methodological individualism—and that it therefore shares a fundamental ambiguity with that principle, viz, whether the macro must be derived from and therefore reducible to, or rather consistent with, micro-level behaviours. The pluralist conclusion of the paper is not that research guided by the principle of microfoundations is necessarily wrong, but that the exclusion of approaches not guided by that principle is indeed necessarily wrong. The argument is made via an examination of the advantages claimed for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, the relationship between parts and wholes in social science, and the concepts of reduction, substrate neutrality, the intentional stance and hypostatisation.     

坚强智能电网的低碳效益与贡献率量化分析

基于低碳发展理念,我国政府已提出2020年减排目标。电网作为能源产业链的重要环节,在促进低碳发展中发挥着关键的、不可替代的作用。归纳分析了坚强智能电网促进低碳发展的各项潜在能力,采用由低碳能力到低碳效益的测评技术路线,对坚强智能电网的低碳效益进行了详细评估,分析了其低碳效益对国家减排目标的贡献率。     

The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns

In this paper, we find new evidence for the carbon futures volatility prediction by using the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns as a powerful predictor. The in-sample results show that the spillovers have a significantly positive effect on carbon futures volatility. From the out-of-sample analysis with various loss functions, we find that fossil energy return spillovers significantly outperform the benchmark and show better forecasting performance than the competing models using dimension reduction, variable selection, and combination approaches. The predictive ability of the spillovers also holds in long-term forecasting and does not derive from other carbon-related variables. It can bring substantial economic gains in the portfolio exercise within carbon futures. Finally, we provide economic explanations on the predictive ability of the fossil energy return spillover by the channels of the carbon emission uncertainty and the investor sentiment on the warming climate.     

健全计量管理体系 促进企业节能降耗

能源计量是用能单位实现节能降耗、提高经济效益、强化能源科学管理必不可少的技术手段之一。新疆油田分公司勘探开发研究院在完善计量管理体系,全面贯彻GB17167-2006《用能单位能源计量器具配备和管理通则》的具体实践中,围绕计量管理服务于生产、服务于质量工作,充分发挥计量工作在科研生产、降低能源消耗,实现企业经济效益等方面所取得的丰富经验。     

日本应对气候变化的行业减排倡议和行动——以日本钢铁行业为例

本文研究了日本在应对气候变化方面提出的国际机制建议,对其提出的后京都时期的政策,尤其是其倡导的行业减排机制进行了深入研究,并以日本钢铁联盟应对气候变化行业减排的案例进行了分析,指出了国际应对气候变化斗争的新动向,为我国的国际谈判对策提供了研究基础。在当前应对气候变化的形势日益迫切的情况下,中国要充分借鉴日本的先进经验,采取积极的战略和策略应对气候变化,并使之与国家可持续发展战略和科技创新战略相结合,与国家重大生态建设工程、节能工程和能源产业技术升级工程相结合,与国家能源、环境等方面的法律、法规和政策体系建设相结合,增强国家应对气候变化的能力,并在后京都国际减排机制中发挥建设性的作用。     

基于碳交易的石化产业温室气体减排对策探究

依据温室气体排放权交易市场机制及其进展,讨论了石化产业与碳交易市场机制的关联,揭示了不同产能减排对绿色企业效益的贡献和期望。通过石化企业的碳减排对策分析,提出研究国内外碳排放交易市场机制,注重企业碳排放额度配置,突出装置型碳减排和综合低碳技术并重的企业技术创新模式,以及建立碳排放普查制度等。     

冷却塔生产环节中降噪节能设计分析

对机械通风冷却塔主要噪声的来源进行了分析,通过实例对降噪措施、节能运行等问题进行分析探讨,并提出了可行并有实际效果的降噪措施优化建议。     

加快电网智能化建设，打造资源优化配置平台

结合国外电网发展特点,分析了国外发展智能电网的主要动因及发展趋势。从经济社会发展、跨区资源配置、清洁能源发展、优化终端能源消费结构和提升能源安全等方面分析了未来我国电网发展面临的形势和要求。结合我国国情,提出未来我国需要加快电网的智能化建设,打造坚强的资源优化配置平台。