Do global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel consumption exhibit long memory? a fractional-integration analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO₂ emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO₂ emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks have permanent effects. Our fractional-integration analysis highlights that this is not the case.     

The EU ETS and corporate environmental abatement

This article studies the relationship between firm-level emissions-to-cap ratio (ETC) and environmental abatement, by using a unique and extensive data set of 10 762 installations covered by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) matched to 5931 firms. We find that a shortage of emissions allowances is related to more abatement in later years while a surplus of emissions allowances results in worse subsequent environmental performance. This finding underscores the importance of reducing the global amount of allowances in the ETS system. Our results also suggest that stakeholder pressure and the creation of transparency concerning corporate environmental performance are likely to support the effectiveness of the system.     

The Elasticity of Poverty with respect to Sectoral Growth in Africa

The African continent has grown by more than 4 percent yearly on average during the past decade. However, the link between this remarkable growth rate and poverty reduction is neither obvious nor simple. This paper focuses on the elasticity of poverty with respect to GDP growth at the sectoral level and takes into account the fact that economic growth may affect poverty directly as well as indirectly through sectoral labor share intensity. It develops a methodology that sheds light on the contribution of sectoral growth to poverty reduction country‐by‐country in Africa, guiding policy recommendations. As the composition of growth matters at least as much as its overall intensity, it is key to identify the sectors that have the strongest impact on poverty reduction and unleash their potential; if growth happens to concentrate in sectors with scarce pro‐poor potential, like commodity‐driven growth, redistributive strategies are necessary to compensate the weak effect on poverty.     

我国海洋产业碳排放核算研究

立足于海洋经济可持续发展的基本目标,探讨发展海洋产业低碳化核算问题。尝试运用改进的Kaya等式和LMDI分解法,对海洋产业CO2排放量变动的影响因素进行了测算与贡献率分析,运用碳排放系数核算了海洋产业碳排放值及碳排放强度,并根据核算结果提出海洋产业低碳化的实现思路。     

中国贸易开放与温室气体排放:文献综述

目前,全球气候变暖作为世界环境问题的四大热点之一不断升温,国际社会各种多边或双边活动日益频繁。中国作为CO2等温室气体排放大国,面临国际减排的压力与日俱增。西方国家鼓吹的"中国气候威胁论"也愈演愈烈,致使中国成为世界气候变暖的众矢之的,然而,通过对国内外文献的梳理,我们发现快速增长的外贸出口和不断扩大的贸易顺差才是导致中国碳排放增长的真正"源头",那些大量消费甚至奢侈消费"中国制造"商品的发达国家同样肩负一定的责任,一味指责中国是不公正、不公平和片面的。     

碳排放权交易、损益偏离与绿色经济效率关系研究

"双碳"目标展现了中国作为负责任的大国,对建设人类命运共同体的担当,碳排放权交易是实现这一目标的重要途径,但其对地区经济与环境的双重影响依然有待检验。结合1997—2017年中国省级数据,采用包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型测度地区绿色经济效率,以碳排放权交易试点为准自然实验,运用合成控制法评估试点政策对地区绿色经济效率的影响,并采用空间计量模型从损益偏离视角展开机制检验。研究发现:碳排放权交易试点政策能够显著提升地区经济效率,运用双重差分模型和PSM-DID进行稳健性检验后,基本结论依然可靠。缓解"收益在外,污染在内"的损益偏离现象,是碳排放权交易试点机制提升绿色经济效率的有效途径。随后提出通过进一步完善碳排放权交易市场机制,进而推动我国绿色发展的相关政策启示。     

Does Increased Extraction of Natural Gas Reduce Carbon Emissions?

Without an international climate agreement, extraction of more natural gas could reduce emissions of CO₂ as more clean natural gas may drive out dirty coal and oil. Using a computable equilibrium model for the Western European electricity and natural gas markets, we examine whether increased extraction of natural gas in Norway reduces global emissions of CO₂. We find that both in the short run and in the long run total emissions are reduced if the additional quantity of natural gas is used in gas power production in Norway. If instead the additional quantity is exported directly, total emissions increase both in the short run and in the long run. However, if modest CO₂-taxes are imposed, increased extraction of natural gas will reduce CO₂ emissions also when the additional natural gas is exported directed.earlier version of this paper was presented at the 25th Annual IAEE International Conference in Aberdeen June 2002.     

A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption,real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal

Mountain economies will have to play a central role in attaining the global pursuit of green economic growth as crucial bearers of ecosystems goods and services. However, these economies are not adequately represented in the development policy debates in spite of their fundamental importance towards global sustainable development. This study examines the inter relationships between energy consumption, output and carbon emissions in a developing mountainous economy using an augmented Vector Autoregression model. Time-series data over the period 1975–2013 is studied applying a multivariate framework using population and gross fixed capital formation as additional variables for Nepal. Testing for Granger causality between integrated variables based on asymptotic theory reveals a long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from carbon emissions to GDP. We suggest that the government of Nepal can address energy poverty by accelerating the adoption energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and energy efficiency improvements to narrow the energy supply-demand gap. The opportunity to promote the uptake of decentralised off-grid renewable technologies in remote areas and the large scale development of hydropower at the national level also needs to be prioritized. Our results remain robust across different estimators and contributes to an emerging literature on the nexus relationships between energy consumption, income and carbon emissions in mountainous developing economies.     

农业技术扩散的时间过程及空间特征分析——以陕西省苹果种植技术为例

农业科学技术只有被广大农民掌握和应用,才能转化为现实生产力,促进农业生产的发展。以陕西省苹果种植技术为例,借助"S型曲线模型"及"重力学模型"对陕西省苹果种植的时空规律进行了研究,发现陕西省苹果种植在时间序列上,其种植面积呈现在波动中上升的趋势,而在空间上,存在等级扩散与渐进扩散相结合的扩散模式,即随着空间尺度的缩减,技术扩散由明显的规模等级扩散向随距离增加扩散强度减弱的渐进式扩散转化。     

The role of inventories and capacity utilization as shock absorbers

We examine the role of inventories and capacity utilization (of both capital and labor) for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations. We document a new set of facts regarding the U.S. cyclical regularities of inventories and capacity utilization. First, we find that capital utilization and the flows of services from both capital and labor are procyclical, and comove with the holdings of inventories. Second, we find that labor utilization is procyclical as well, but is weakly negatively correlated with inventories. We build a model that accounts for these facts, and also accounts for the stylized inventory facts, i.e., inventory holdings are procyclical, while the inventory-to-sales ratio is countercyclical. The analysis is centered on the effects of two possible shocks: preference (demand) shocks and technology shocks. Our model shows that inventories and the rate of capital utilization are mostly complements, while inventories and the rate of labor utilization are mostly substitutes. It further shows that temporary demand shocks emphasize the role of inventories as being a “shock absorber,” whereas high-persistence demand shocks, as well as technology shocks of any persistence, emphasize the role of inventories as being a complement to consumption.