Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.     

Sharing my way to success: A case study on developing entrepreneurial ventures using social capital in an OSS community

While Open Source Software (OSS) communities provide opportunities for knowledge creation, we have a limited understanding of how entrepreneurs leverage OSS communities for their entrepreneurial ventures. Using social capital theory in a mixed methods case study, we compare entrepreneur and non-entrepreneur behaviors to investigate how entrepreneurs build social capital within an OSS community. This study shows that entrepreneurs differentiate themselves from non-entrepreneurs by focusing on cognitive and relational capital building activities, which in return makes it possible for them to leverage their social capital to influence and shape the environment in which they are operating. Our findings suggest that entrepreneurs strategically select which activities within the community to expend their limited resources on (e.g., developing code over participating in email conversations) and build their social capital more through their actions than through their words (e.g., showing their commitment to the community through code commits, bug fixes, and documentation). Given the liabilities of newness and smallness as well as other challenges faced by entrepreneurs, applying an open innovation strategy in OSS communities could be one approach where entrepreneurs, by developing and freely revealing their intellectual property to the community, share their way to success via OSS-infused entrepreneurial business ventures.     

TRAMO/SEATS在危机事件中对旅游影响研究的应用

国内外对旅游危机事件的研究集中于管理方面,近年相关热点转向对旅游影响的研究.以往定性研究多,从经济数量模型进行定量分析研究的较少.本文使用在经济金融领域使用广泛的ARIMA改进版--TRAMO/SEATS方法评估危机事件,如疾病、地震等突发事件对中国旅游业的影响.作为欧盟各国统计局主要统计方法,TRAMO/SEATS方法能够最大程度地反映旅游业季节性波动的特点.通过该方法对2003年在中国内地和香港地区爆发的SARS进行实证研究,分析评估该危机事件的长期影响.在此基础上提出,国家短期内应当通过提高产品质量和拓展高质量的细分市场实现旅游效益型增长;恢复后期才可以推出更为直接的促销手法实现旅游数量型增长,采取刺激旅游人数快速增长的政策和措施.     

国内旅游生态环境研究进展及趋势

环境问题已成为当今旅游景区可持续发展面临的严峻挑战,旅游环境影响研究亦成为当今旅游研究的热点之一.本文在分析近年来国内旅游生态环境影响研究文献的基础上,对旅游生态环境影响研究的主要内容、方法、存在问适题进行了综述,并对今后一段时间国内旅游生态环境影响的研究趋势进行了探讨.     

饭店客房定价方法的理论研究综述

在饭店经营过程中,价格是一个重要因素,是企业主要的竞争手段之一.本文在对饭店客房定价方法相关文献整理基础上,从三个层面--成本导向、市场导向、成本和市场导向的结合对目前有关饭店客房定价方法的相关理论进行了评述,旨在推动饭店经营者提高价格决策能力.     

股权激励的市场反应及其内幕交易的实证研究

文章以2008年1月份前推出股权激励计划的67家公司为样本,采用事件研究法,对股价在股权激励计划方案公布前后21个交易日是否存在超常收益率进行了实证研究。实证结果表明:样本公司的股票在事件窗口内存在显著为正的超常收益率,市场对这一事件作出了正向的回应,而且超常收益率主要是由消息公布产生的,不存在消息的提前泄露和内幕交易。     

合同法上的附随义务初探

合同义务的一个重要分类是给付义务与附随义务。附随义务是指法律无明确规定,当事人间也无明确约定的合同当事人应承担的义务。在合同履行过程中,违反了附随义务应承担相应的法律责任。     

现金股利、股利稳定性、公司价值──来自我国证券市场的实证证据

股利政策在西方财务界受到高度重视 ,尤其是在实证方面更有颇多研究 ,但在我国上市公司并不重视 ,理论界也研究不多 ,随着证券市场的发展这一问题日益突出 ,本文企图在这一方面做一尝试。笔者采用实证方法对我国上市公司的股利政策进行了研究 ,得出了一些暂时结论。并分析了其原因和应采取的对策 ,希望能对上市公司实务操作和理论研究有所启发。     

旅游地理学研究现状及其研究内容刍议

旅游地理学是一门新兴、尚不成熟的学科,它应是旅游学的一个分支。它以旅游资源、旅游行为、旅游地建设、旅游环境、可持续发展等范畴为主要研究内容。