速生造林项目投资的一种仿真优化方法

造林项目预期现金流量的影响因素较多,经营过程中需综合考虑以达到最优配置。通过确定速生造林项目现金流量种类,分析其影响因素、发生过程及变化规律,以对各种现金流量建模,并利用计算机软件建立仿真模型。为获得最优净现值,对有决策意义的影响因素进行优化求解,并通过人工测试或系统重复运行找到最优方案。     

烟熏痕迹形成过程及其证明作用

本文以火灾从起火点蔓延至整个建筑的不同阶段为时间线索,着重叙述烟熏痕迹形成过程。其中详细阐述了烟熏痕迹的形状、分布、浓重程度等特征。在火灾调查中充分考虑这些特征,有助于准确利用烟熏痕迹证明火灾事实。     

降低供电煤耗的方法探讨

降低火力发电厂的供电煤耗,对缓解燃料的供应和促进国民经济的发展有着十分重要的意义。笔者以某电厂为例,从提高汽轮机效率、锅炉效率、降低厂用电率等方面探讨降低供电煤耗率的途径。     

基于信息不对称非上市公司贷款违约研究

针对非上市企业融资困难的现状,从信息不对称角度出发,采用贷款抵押,利用修正的自由现金流模型估计非上市企业的价值,并结合企业的债务结构,建立了信息不对称下非上市企业信用风险模型,建立了企业的违约概率的预测模型,探讨了企业最大债务规模,并分析了贷款违约挽回率。     

订单型服装企业生产作业计划智能调度

订单型服装企业生产流程复杂,自动化程度不高,使得生产作业计划难于编制。文中根据服装车间生产作业调度的特点,提出了面向订单的服装企业的生产作业计划的数学模型,采用遗传算法求解。仿真结果表明模型的有效性和合理性,满足了客户的需求。     

Foreign exchange customers and dealers: Who’s driving whom?

This paper tests the theoretical assumption of the foreign exchange market microstructure that dealers and non-dealer customers interact over discrete trading rounds. An exhaustive frequency-domain analysis reveals that the interaction is limited and mainly due to the instability of financial markets. The principal finding is that the trading activity of dealers is able to predict the customer order flow at low frequencies with wavelengths longer than roughly a week. In all, the evidence shows that non-financial customers are not as passive as some other research has suggested.     

Exchange rate effect on carbon credit price via energy markets

This paper examines the impact of currency exchange rates on the carbon market. We scrutinize this effect through the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which primarily uses two substitutable fossil energy inputs for the generation of electricity: coal and natural gas. The European coal market is directly driven by global coal markets that are denominated in USD, whereas, natural gas is mainly imported from Russia and is denominated in Euros. The impulse response functions of a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model demonstrate that a shock in the Euro/USD exchange rate can be transmitted through the channel of energy substitution between coal and natural gas, and influence on the carbon credit market.     

Official FX interventions through derivatives

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swap auctions carried out by the Brazilian Central Bank on the USDBRL exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the exchange rate in a significant way, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. We show that during our sample period auctions of contracts in which the Central Bank took a short position in USD had larger effects than those in which the Central Bank took a long position. The supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.     

The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate volatility during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. The findings of the paper also suggest that financial markets might have been less reactive to the public debate by policy makers than previously feared. Still, there are instances where exchange rate volatility increased in response to news, such as on days when several politicians from AAA-rated countries went public with negative statements, suggesting that communication by policy makers at times of crisis should be cautious about triggering undesirable financial market reactions.     

Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Regimes

The paper evaluates the net welfare gains of inflation targeting over a fixed exchange rate as a function of a country's trade openness, using a multisectoral structural model calibrated to Chile. For most calibrations with separable preferences, net welfare gains are increasing in trade openness. The reason is that in more open economies terms of trade shocks, which favor inflation targeting, become quantitatively more important, while price markup shocks in the imperfectly competitive nontradables sector, which favor exchange rate targeting, become less important. The most important exception is heavily indebted countries, where net welfare gains are decreasing in trade openness.