高技术产品研发项目技术风险的综合评价——以数码相机研发项目为例

文章以数码相机研发项目为例,提出了基于层次分析法与模糊综合评判法的高技术产品研发项目技术风险的综合评价方法,利用研发项目的工作分解结构对数码相机研发项目的风险进行了识别,制定了风险发生概率与影响程度的评分标准,并对数码相机研发项目的风险进行了综合评价和分析。     

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

基于模糊偏序关系的消费者偏好测评

了解消费者偏好是企业营销活动的基础性工作。本文首先利用模糊偏序关系的排序方法,解决消费者偏好的心理测度的模糊性问题,论证了用模糊偏序关系对心理测度进行评价是一种较好的方法;然后利用决策理论中的condorect函数把个人偏好合成群体偏好;最后用实例验证了该方法对消费者偏好进行评价的可行性。     

浅谈问卷调查中模糊性问题的处理方法

在社会经济中,存在着大量的模糊事件。传统的统计思想和方法对此往往无能为力,这就需要引入模糊数学的思想和方法。本文对问卷调查中模糊性产生的原因进行简要的概括,对其处理方法进行了初步的探讨。     

Partnering模式中伙伴收益分配比例的确定

对工程项目采用合伙制(Partnering)模式带来的风险进行了分析。在此基础上,根据“风险分担,收益共享”的原则,确定了伙伴收益分配遵循的四条原则;并利用模糊综合评判法,给出确定收益分配比例的一个计算方法。     

安徽工业立省探讨

和谐发展大势呼吁中部崛起,安徽省顺应形势,主张工业立省,奋力崛起.文章先从工业创造财富、"东向发展战略"、三次产业关系等角度论证安徽省工业立省的现实需要和战略意义.再重点从人力资本激励、资本集聚、工业园区建设等角度探讨安徽如何实现工业立省,奋力崛起.     

基于显著区域提取的红外图像舰船目标检测

针对复杂海面背景下红外图像舰船目标由于灰度不均匀、海杂波干扰大等因素造成的自动检测虚警率高、准确率低的问题,提出了一种显著区域提取和目标精确分割相结合的红外舰船目标检测方法。首先,利用基于图论的视觉显著性(Graph-based Visual Saliency ,GBVS)模型计算待检测图像的显著图,使得目标区域信息增强;其次,结合舰船目标先验信息（长短轴、面积等）,利用多级阈值划分算法提取关注的显著区域,并确定原图中候选目标区域;最后,利用空间约束模糊C均值(Fuzzy C-Means,FCM)算法对候选区域进行分割,结合目标先验知识对分割区域筛选并输出目标位置。所提方法在公开数据集IRShips上与相关方法进行比较,结果表明,相比直接进行全图目标搜索的方法,所提方法不仅准确率高、执行速度快,且检测目标的位置更加精确。     

The differences in hotel selection among various types of travellers: A comparative analysis with a useful bounded rationality behavioural decision support model

This study aims to investigate the hotel selection differences among different types of travellers through online hotel reviews. Specifically, the study performs a detailed examination of the differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results among five types of travellers, namely, business, couples, families, friends and solo. Using a sample of 194,885 online reviews on TripAdvisor.com, this study identifies the hotel key factors and criterion importance by employing the term frequency-inverse document frequency algorithm and Word2Vec algorithm. Additionally, a bounded rationality behavioural decision support model with picture fuzzy information is proposed to address hotel selection problems for different traveller types. Our results suggest that different types of travellers present differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results. However, families and friends have similar hotel selection results. This study can serve as a reference for hotel managers in understanding traveller preferences and for tourism website optimisation.     

基于生态系统服务功能的森林社会效益价值评估——以云南省森林资源为例

森林除了具有经济价值和生态价值外,还具有基于生态系统服务功能所产生的社会效益价值。论文以云南省森林资源为例,采用房地产评估中常用的假设开发法为主要评估方法,结合森林资源所反映的社会效益价值增长特征,运用企业自由现金流量折现模型中的两阶段现金流折现模型,通过构建模型体系,分别从直接社会效益和间接社会效益两个维度对云南省森林资源的社会效益价值进行评估。其中,直接社会效益包括就业价值和景观游憩价值,间接社会效益包括科教价值、历史价值及文化价值,通过模糊综合评判计算各组成部分的不同影响权重得出直接和间接社会效益模型,以多元回归的方法构建森林生态总体社会效益价值模型并计算云南省森林社会效益价值。同时,将各部分价值结果分别与云南省第三产业GDP、人均GDP及云南省GDP进行对比分析,进而对云南省森林社会效益价值现有情况进行评价,并对今后的森林资源开发提出相关建议。     

中国—荷兰中欧班列货源结构时空演化研究

欧盟一直是我国最重要的贸易合作伙伴之一,荷兰则是我国在欧盟的前三大贸易伙伴之一,中荷贸易关系是中欧贸易关系中重要的一环,中欧班列的区域货源结构对中欧班列功能定位和发展规划意义重大。为明确中荷贸易背景下货源结构动态演化过程、特征及机制,在模糊C均值基础上,结合邻接矩阵对聚类分析结果进行修正,将各离散点货源数据进行合并聚类,剖析其时间和空间层面的演变及原因,探究货源结构时空演化趋势。结果表明:2014—2018年,中荷之间货源数量整体呈上升趋势,货源时空布局呈现空间集聚效应,表现为“由整到散”“西高东低”的演化态势。最后提出相关政策建议。