Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation

If public goods and transfers are relatively more valuable to the poor, the elderly poor stand to lose from public debt reduction achieved through spending cuts. When long–term surpluses produced by debt reduction are recycled into higher provision of public goods and transfers, future generations of poor could gain. If future surpluses are recycled through lower labour taxes, working households in the future would be positively affected. The impact of debt reduction on vertical equity is ambiguous, yet inter– rather than intragenerational equity is likely to pose the greatest obstacle to fiscal consolidation. Based on majority voting by self–interested households, debt reduction is unlikely to occur.
JEL classification : D 91; E 62; H 23; H 63     

Statistical aspects of simulation: an updated survey*

Abstract Practical statistical techniques for the design and analysis of simulation experiments are presented. These techniques are relevant in both discrete and continuous, deterministic and stochastic simulation. To generalize and interpret the simulation output the analyst can use regression analysis. This analysis allows for interactions among factors. Actually the regression model provides either a first-order or a second-order approximation to the complicated simulation model. To decide which system variants (parameter combinations) should be simulated, the analyst may apply experimental design theory. This theory makes the exploration of the simulated system much more efficient and more thorough. In the preliminary phase of the simulation experimentation special screening designs can be used to investigate hundreds of factors in relatively few runs. In stochastic simulation additional problems arise. There are several approaches for determining how to initialize a simulation run and how long to continue that run. These approaches result in a confidence interval for the estimated response. Both steady-state and transient behavior are examined. Special variance reduction techniques are briefly discussed; the use of common random numbers (identical seeds) is discussed in more detail.     

分形方法在可靠性分析中的应用

讨论分形模型N＝C／r^D在可靠性分析中的应用。文中实例用分形方法处理天然气管道系统可靠性分析和产品可靠度下限分析中的有关问题。     

节约型经济流程的基础与条件

本文基于虚拟交换前置，探索资源节约型经济流程实现的基础与可能。通过信息资源对自然资源的替代，减少生产环节之前和生产过程中对资源的无谓消耗，避免大规模生产条件下盲目竞争导致的产品过剩问题，实现微观领域的产销平衡和宏观领域的总供需平衡。要达到这一点，必须转变经济流程，即通过信息资源替代物质资源，使交换在生产之前发生；而经济流程转变的关系在于信任的治理和对机会主义的控制。     

粗糙集在客户细分系统中的应用

利用不完备信息系统的粗糙集有关方法实现客户细分系统中客户个性化需求的挖掘过程,并对建模过程的主要步骤和关键问题作详尽的阐述,通过对客户个性化需求的分类进行分析和归纳可以发现影响企业实施销售战略的关键需求及其相关知识,企业可以根据挖掘结果,调整其经营策略,提升企业竞争力。应用实例表明:该模型是合理和可行的。     

美联储停止缩表的原因、影响及中国对策

近期美联储停止缩表引起广泛关注。美联储停止缩表主要有以下几个原因:一是货币需求大幅上升,二是美联储控制短期利率的能力出现下降,三是美国经济前景存在不确定性。此外,美联储停止缩表还有助于继续发挥财政作用、改善货币政策传导效率、降低污名效应、降低私人部门安全资产的供应以及降低对美联储信用风险和银行清算风险。美联储停止缩表对美国和中国都会产生十分广泛的影响。对美国的影响主要有:资产价格将获得支撑、投资可能出现过热、通胀可能出现阶段性上升、金融风险可能加大、美联储独立性可能受到影响、可能加剧收益率曲线倒挂;对中国的影响主要有:人民币汇率压力有望缓解、资产价格可能上升、短期资本流入可能增多。因此,中国货币政策应保持定力,密切关注国际资本流动趋势的变化,防范资产价格暴涨风险,同时,应加强人民币汇率风险管理。     

A Technique for Reducing Discretization Bias from Monte Carlo Simulations: Option Pricing under Stochastic Interest Rates

Abstract

Control variates are often used to reduce variability in Monte Carlo estimates and their effectiveness is traditionally measured by the so-called speed-up factor. The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that a control variate can also be applied to reduce the bias stemming from the discretization of the state variable dynamics. This is particularly valuable when stochastic interest rate models are discretized, since bias reduction through more grid points is computationally expensive.     

中外石油天然气行业会计准则的对比

针对石油天然气行业的特点,许多国家制定了本国的石油天然气准则。本文对比分析了国际财务报告准则、美国和我国石油天然气会计准则的内容,就我国石油天然气会计准则的进一步完善提出了几点建议。     

长输管道漏失监测技术的应用

油气长输管线是采油，生产管理的重要环节，由于管线腐蚀及偷盗破坏等，致使原油经常性大量泄漏，给企业带来了巨大的经济损失。为了最大限度地降低管线穿孔所造成的一系列严重后果，研制应用了长输管线漏失监测技术。该技术能够及时判断管道防腐层破落及原油泄漏点，实现管线实时在线监测。     

大力降低能源消耗走可持续发展道路

2005年度世界一次能源消费总量为10．537 Gt(油当量),其中石油为3．837 Gt,占36．41％;天然气为2．4．75 Gt,占23．49％;煤炭2．930 Gt,占27．80％;核能0．627 Gt,占5．95％;水电0．669 Gt,占6．35％。中国能源消费形势严峻,2005年中国一次能源消费总量为2 225 Mt标准煤,其中煤炭占68．7％,石油占21．2％,水电和核电占7．3％,天然气占2．8％。中国石化既是能源生产大户也是能源消耗大户,2005年加工原油14．8．80 Mt,炼油综合能耗为68．59 kg(标油)／t,总能耗约10．21 Mt标油,与国外先进水平比较,有较大的差距。根据我国资源与能源紧缺的形势,必须在已取得成绩的基础上,进一步做好节能降耗工作。