The Problem of Time Dependent Explanatory Variables at the Context-Level in Discrete Time Multilevel Event History Analysis: A Comparison of Models Considering Mobility Between Local Labour Markets as an Example

The paper deals with the question of how to include time dependent explanatory variables at the context-level in multilevel event history models. In general, context-level explanatory variables in multilevel models are assumed to be time constant. Only time constant context-level explanatory variables perform the task of reducing context-level error variance. Thus, it will be suggested that the analysis should be extended to a three-level model. In this model, time periods of persons constitute level 1 units, time periods of contexts constitute level 2 units and the contexts themselves constitute level 3 units – in which in turn level 2 units are clustered. Considering mobility between local labour markets as an example, four different ways of modelling time varying context-level variables are compared. The result is that the proposed three-level model leads to the most conservative results.     

Karl Pearson—The Scientific Life in a Statistical Age by Theodore M. Porter: A Review

Porter presents an excellent account of the young Karl Pearson and his extraordinarily varied activities. These ranged from the Cambridge Mathematical Tripos Exams to German history and folklore, and included free thought, socialism, the woman's question, and the law. Returning to science, Pearson produced the famous Grammar of Science . He decided on a career in statistics only at age 35. Porter emphasizes Pearson's often acrimonious but largely successful battles to show the wide applicability and importance of statistics in many areas of science and public affairs. Eugenics became a passion for Pearson. Avoiding all formulas Porter fails to give any concrete ideas of even Pearson's most important contributions to statistical theory. We try to sketch these here.     

北京城市办公业发展与城市变化阶段分析

办公业发展作为城市经济转型的组成部分,在北京城市变化中经历了4个阶段:(1)变消费城市为生产城市——办公业萌芽期。新中国成立后至改革开放前,北京城市大力发展工业,变消费城市为生产城市。这一时期由于政治上的原因,外商驻京机构很少;而国内金融、保险、房地产、信息行业基本处于萌芽阶段。因而,该时期无真正意义上的办公业。(2)现代化城市——办公业起步期。改革开放至20世纪80年代中后期,北京向现代化城市迈进,商务管理职能为主体的办公业开始萌芽,城市经济结构发生了变化,第三产业中生产性服务业开始兴起。(3)国际化大都市——办公业起飞期。从20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪早期,北京开始向国际化大都市靠近,相对形成了几个办公区域,如CBD商务办公区域、中关村高科技办公区域、复兴门金融办公区域等。生产性服务业占据主导地位。(4)现代化国际城市-办公业飞速发展期。2008年奥运申办成功后,北京城市发展又处于一个转型期,以公司办公为核心的办公业空间集聚使北京城市发生新的变化。     

论济南近代历史文化特质资源的价值与持续利用

文化是人类历史与智慧的结晶。保护历史文化物质环境和自然环境,有效利用城市文化资源,是后来人应永恒关注的课题。在现代城市快速发展情况下,如何持续利用这些宝贵资源,值得我们认真研究探讨。本文选取济南近代历史文化特质资源的一部分,在研究其特有价值前提下,分析了其目前的生存状况,并提出了对于这些历史文化特质资源持续利用的相应对策。     

浅析北京四合院与中华文化之联系

北京四合院是中国民居的代表,同时也蕴含中华文化的博大精深,本文从多个方面阐述四合院的文化价值以及对四合院与中华文化互相影响进行探讨。     

“六经皆史”与马克思主义中国化——经史观及其方法论启示

经史关系是中国思想史的核心问题,贯穿于周秦以来历史发展的全过程。中国共产党一经成立即面临自身独有的经史关系,即马克思主义之"经"与中国实践之"史"的关系,核心命题即马克思主义中国化。值得特别注意的是,马克思主义中国化与"六经皆史"处理经史关系的方法论十分相似。而这并非巧合,有其理论渊源:一方面,中国共产党是中华民族优秀文化之继承者,建党伊始就自觉从中汲取养分;另一方面,范文澜作为关键人物,成为毛泽东与章学诚二者之间的思想榫卯。就在马克思主义中国化命题提出之际,范文澜抵达延安,其所提出的中国经学史演变之宏论深为毛泽东器重。面对类似的经史关系问题,又有关键人物为思想之榫卯,"六经皆史"论与马克思主义中国化二者之间,就产生了内生性逻辑关联,极具方法论启示之意蕴。     

Islamic Economics in the Late Ottoman Empire: Menâpirzâde Nuri Bey's Mebâhis-i İlm-i Servet

The existing literature on Islamic economics suggests that Islamic economics is a twentieth-century phenomenon with its roots in medieval Islamic intellectual and theological history, thereby leaving a centuries-long gap in the history of Islamic economic thinking. This study aims at taking a first step towards filling this gap by examining a nineteenth-century example of Islamic economics in late Ottoman economic literature. Suggesting a broader definition of Islamic economics, this article investigates a prominent Ottoman intellectual's efforts to define, reveal, and revive a tradition of Islamic economics in historical and intellectual context.     

企业社会责任与企业价值——组织惰性与行业敏感度的调节作用

以2012—2016年沪深两市A股上市公司的数据为依据,通过实证分析研究了企业社会责任对企业价值的影响,并从组织层面和行业层面的视角探讨了组织惰性和行业敏感度对该影响的调节作用。研究结果表明,企业社会责任对企业价值具有显著的促进作用;组织惰性减弱了企业社会责任对企业价值的促进作用;行业敏感度阻碍了企业通过履行社会责任进而提升企业价值的过程。     

A ‘new’ economic history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

This article argues that there is a need to develop a ‘new’ economic and social history of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region that is based on exploiting novel sources of data, including (a) primary papyrological sources from the medieval period, (b) primary sources at the region's local archives and European (colonial) archives, and (c) primary sources from the ancient (pre-Islamic) period. The proposed ‘new’ history of the MENA region must be inter-disciplinary for two reasons: (a) digitizing and employing these novel data sources in research requires the collaboration of social scientists, historians, archaeologists, anthropologists, demographers and papyrologists, as well as the co-operation of MENA-based scholars who have better access to MENA's local archives, and (b) even if these novel sources are digitized, data limitations are likely to impose a constraint on the reach of quantitative analysis and thus necessitate an inter-disciplinary methodology that combines quantitative evidence with historical analysis.     

Federalism and Conflicts over Principalship. Some Insights into the American Constitutional History

The article provides an economic interpretation of Kelsen's theory of decentralized governments. It helps to distinguish different forms of federalism and in particular the corresponding conflicts of principalship inside the governmental structure. The model is applied to the early American constitutional history and shows how opposed views of agency relationships in the constitution foreshadowed what would later end up in a civil war.