住宅价格与经济基本面的实证研究——以上海市为例

近几年来,我国房地产市场发展迅速,个别区域性房地产市场出现了价格过高的现象.对此,国家采取了一系列宏观调控措施.对于房地产价格的合理与否,目前仍然存在着争议.影响住宅实际价格的因素主要是土地价格和住宅价格的历史信息.而可支配收入对价格的影响并不显著,因此应加强对不合理的房地产投机需求的调控.     

股票价格对物价水平的影响

股票价格作为最重要的金融资产价格，会通过“财富效应”、“替代效应”、“预期效应”、“新产品效应”和“工资效应”等途径影响投资和消费等宏观经济变量，进而影响包括商品劳务价格在内的一般物价水平。在发达国家和发展中国家，股票价格影响物价水平的方向和程度有着重大区别。     

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Mood and Judgment of Subjective Probabilities: Evidence from the U.S. Index Option Market

Numerous psychological studies show that weather conditions affect people'smood and that mood states are correlated with people's subjective evaluationof future probabilities. In this paper, a new approach is developed and assetmarket data are employed to test the mood-subjective probability relation. Cloudcover and precipitation volume serve as two mood proxies. Our statistical analysissuggests that bad mood states are characterized by investors placing higher probabilitieson adverse events.     

Characteristics of Earnings-Leading Versus Price-Leading Firms

This study attempts to identify firm characteristics that explain the disparity between the information content of accounting earnings and stock prices. Granger's causality concept was employed to classify sample firms into four groups: price-leading firms, feedback-system firms, earnings-leading firms, and no-causation firms. The feedback-system firms were either combined with the no-causation firms or eliminated entirely to form three sample groups. The entire sample firms then were divided into two classes. The first is for estimation, and the second is for prediction. Results indicate that firm size, capital structure, R-square of regressing prices at time t against earnings at time t – 1, R-square of regressing earnings at time t against prices at time t – 1, and percentage of shares held by institutions are the significant explaining variables. The application of the coefficient estimates to the hold-out sample indicates that 76.2% of the firms can be correctly classified into the corresponding groups. These results were consistent with those from canonical discrimination and other multivariate statistical methods.     

On the Distribution of CBOE Option Trade Prices Occurring Between Consecutive Stock Trades

This paper examines the volume distribution of option trade prices that occurs when the underlying stock price remains constant. The width of these option trade price bands provides direct evidence on the law of one price and the redundancy of options assumed in many option models. We find that index option bands are narrower than equity option bands. Furthermore, for both equity and index options, puts have narrower bandwidths than calls. In general, option price bandwidth is narrow and can be explained by the minimum price movement allowed by the Chicago Board Options Exchanges (CBOE). This supports the single price law and the redundancy assumption. The existence of bid/ask quotes on the option does not materially affect the above results although it does alter the frequency of multiple option trade prices for a given underlying stock price. We note that over 53% of option trading volume occurs without bid/ask quotes on the CBOE compared to less than 15% a decade ago. Our results suggest that the effective bid/ask spread on options is probably no larger than the minimum price movements allowed by the CBOE. Furthermore, the need for the liquidity services of market makers may be declining if the decline in quoting activity stems from cross trading (i.e. trades not involving market makers).     

The Announcement Effect of an Airport Expansion on Housing Prices

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of the announcement of a new airport hub on housing prices near the airport. While numerous studies of airport noise have found that high noise levels reduce property values, few have been able to measure the announcement effect on values. The results indicate that after controlling to extraneous influences, housing property prices in a 2.5 mile band from the Greensboro/High Point/Winston Salem metropolitan airport declined approximately 9.2% in the post-announcement period. In the next 1.5-mile band, house prices declined approximately 5.7% in the post-announcement period.     

当代美国住宅的思考

美国2000年新建住宅投资4251亿美元，占固定资产投资的21．3％；住宅直接消费为9588亿美元，占GDP的9．71％；年存量住宅为1．16亿套(户)，空置率为5．9％。购买新房一般中值价为80美元／ft^2，一套住宅(2000ft^2)中值房价为16万美元；按中值计算贷款购房的支出与收入比为1：4．7；在美国仍有3500万户居民租用住宅。     

浅论房屋租赁

房屋租赁双方当事人在合同关系中享有权利。也承担相应的义务．一方履行义务就是另一方权利的实现。房屋租赁管理存在许多亟待解决的问题．必须进一步完善房屋租赁市场相关政策和法规．加强培育和发展房屋租赁服务市场，规范房屋租赁服务市场主体行为。     

新形势下高校房产管理改革的探讨

通过对高校后勤改革中存在的不足及工作偏差进行研究，分析了房产改革在高校后勤工作中的重要性和迫切性，指出了其中的纰漏和弊端，以及没有充分完善的地方。针对现有的弊端，提出了相应的一些解决办法和措施。高校房产管理改革重在提高房屋的使用效率及经济效益。