Is it one break or ongoing permanent shocks that explains U.S. real GDP?

The relative importance of permanent versus cyclical shocks to GDP has been found to depend on the presence or absence of a single break in mean growth. We estimate unobserved components models conditional on a trend break having occurred in any specified quarter and use the Bayesian model averaging to combine the conditional estimates. We estimate a break occurred around 2006:1. Allowing for a break significantly reduces estimates of trend variance. However, enough spread remains in the posterior distribution to indicate that available data does not definitively settle the question of the relative importance of trend versus cycle.     

Identifying micro-destinations and providing statistical information: a pilot study in the Canary Islands

Municipalities and regions are often used as an object of tourism analysis at the subnational level. This occurs because administrative borders are used to implement tourism policies and collect statistical information. However, administrative boundaries may not always be suitable for studying tourism destinations at a local level. Sometimes, particularly in high-density tourism destinations, several differentiated tourism areas occupy a single municipality; tourism areas may, and often do, extend beyond municipal boundaries and tourism destinations may not occupy the whole of the municipal area. As such, a new level of analysis is often required: the micro-destination. There are few tourism concepts as imprecise as that of the destination. Therefore, the process of identifying and establishing the boundaries of a micro-destination is by no means a straightforward one. This paper presents six criteria for establishing the boundaries of this type of tourism area. Of these six, the two primary criteria used are: the concentration of tourism establishments; and tourism typologies and supply characteristics. These criteria have been applied as part of a pilot study in the Canary Islands. Statistical information for nine micro-destinations is generated using the geolocation of tourism establishments together with information obtained from both supply-side and demand-side surveys.     

液压与气动课程CDIO教学模式探讨

探讨了基于CDIO理念的液压与气动课程教学模式,包括课程分层次教学方法设计、课程教学内容模块化设计、课程教学效果考核细化设计。通过液压与气动课程CDIO教学模式实践,可以进一步提高课程的教学质量和效果,有利于培养和加强学生的实践能力和综合素质。     

中美产品责任惩罚性赔偿制度构成要件的比较

我国《侵权责任法》首次规定产品责任惩罚性赔偿,但存在主观要件过严、举证难、赔偿责任及数额不具体等问题。应借鉴美国相关法律,予以完善。     

Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system

This paper presents a new methodology to build internal business scenarios from the data gathered by some key performance indicators (KPIs) defined within a performance measurement system. The application of the principal components analysis technique leads to the identification of latent relationships between KPIs that underlies some important business aspects. Further, this methodology allows to represent not only the temporal evolution of the organisation as a function of these business aspects but also the definition and determination of internal business scenarios, being therefore the source of meaningful managerial information. At the end of the paper, results of a practical application are presented and discussed, as well as their importance for the organisation from a decision making point of view.     

论供热空调系统中水力平衡技术的应用

文中阐述了暖通空调水系统中选用水力平衡阀的原因,并介绍了水力平衡阀的特性及各种水力平衡阀在暖通空调系统中的应用,提出解决水力平衡的若干方法。     

OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS PERSISTENCE: DO CYCLICAL SHOCKS MATTER?

The aim of this paper is to identify the different sources of persistence of output fluctuations. We propose an unobserved components model that allows us to decompose GDP series into a trend component and a cyclical component. We let the drift of the trend component switch between different regimes according to a first‐order Markov process. To calculate an appropriate p‐value for a test of linearity we propose a bootstrap procedure, which allows for general forms of heteroscedasticity. The performance of the bootstrap is checked by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Our study concerns the USA. We find that cyclical shocks appear to play an important role on the observed persistence of output.     

高性能电子商务网站前端设计理念研究

随着电子商务的发展,电子商务网站数量越来越多,流量越来越大,页面元素也越来越多,这就使得电子商务网站的页面响应速度变慢,为了使电子商务网站前端提高其性能,本文首先对相关概念进行界定,然后找出影响电子商务网站前端性能的因素,最后根据这些因素提出高性能电子商务网站前端设计理念。     

基于主成分分析法的员工工作满意度分析

针对A企业的员工工作满意度进行了问卷调查,并运用统计学的主成分分析法和层次分析法对问卷回收的相关数据进行分析。结果表明:①A企业员工对其个人发展前景感到满意的比重高于对企业发展前景、工作环境以及收入分配感到满意的比重;②A企业员工对工作感到基本满意的比重只有一半左右。这说明A企业在创造更好的工作条件来提高员工的满意度方面还有很长的路要走。     

论水利工程质量管理

本文分析了目前水利工程质量管理工作的状况和存在的问题,提出了施工中提高水利工程质量管理的方法,以正确处理项目建设过程中的各种关系,控制质量安全的关键点,杜绝"豆腐渣"工程,加强水利工程质量管理。