The Keynesian Multiplier Effect Reconsidered

In the standard Keynesian framework, government spending on useless public works has a larger multiplier effect than spending on government transfer payments does. In other words, spending on useless public works increases national income by more than an equivalent increase in government transfer payments would. Nevertheless, their effects on national benefit are identical. For both, the national benefit equals the direct benefit created by the spending. If there are two income classes, some transfers reduce both the national income and the national benefit. Some government purchases completely crowd out private consumption and reduce the national benefit.     

Impact of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on rural household income: An integrated estimation

The objective of this study is to identify the pathways of the potential impacts of the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) on household income and quantify these impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated analytic framework and using data collected from Wuqi county of Shaanxi for the period 2004–2010. This integrated analytic framework enables us to formulate a structural equation model for testing hypotheses regarding the direct and indirect impacts of the SLCP. It is found that the direct effect of the SLCP on household income is positive but very small and insignificant, suggesting that retiring cropland has, at least, not reduced income from farming. Moreover, the SLCP has had a much higher and even increasing indirect impact on household income through promoting labor transfer and relaxing liquidity constraints. Overall, the SLCP's total impact on household income ranged from 3% in 2004 to 9% in 2010 excluding the insignificant direct impact. The research and policy implications of our work are discussed.     

经济增长与不平等对我国农村脱贫时间的影响

选择FGT贫困指数和脱贫时间指数，利用世界银行公布的我国农村贫困线和收入分配分组数据。对比分析了1981年-2005年以来的农村贫困变化趋势。研究发现，农村贫困状况虽然总体上呈缓解趋势，但在脱贫时间指数的构成中，由于不平等所延长的脱贫时间，无论从绝对量还是相对量上都明显提高，这说明收入分配的恶化已经成为反贫困的严重障碍，这种变化趋势值得高度关注。     

以政府职能转变推动收入分配改革

收入和财富分配的不平等一直是中国改革发展中的重要问题。针对中国经济的特点,可以从政府改革的角度来研究如何更好地进行收入分配改革。地方政府主导推动地方经济的做法对收入不平等的扩大起了重要作用,加快政府职能转换,是使收入分配改革真正落到实处的破局之处,也是实现收入分配合理化可行的第一步。要改变地方政府的经济职能,降低它直接参与基础设施的程度,改革地方土地财政,建立垂直管理机构,以分散它的一部分经济管理职能,为收入分配改革打开空间。     

高房价理性回归的金融通道

近年来,随着我国经济的快速增长和城市化进程的不断深入,我国出现了房价过快上涨的势头。高房价背后有着各种成因,抵押贷款证券化在解决高房价问题上具有合理性和可行性,保持审慎、稳健的监管,通过合理的金融市场建设和金融资源分配,房地产市场能够回归理性,房价回归正常合理的水平。     

当代中国收入分化的现状及主要原因

中国在现代化进程中面临着一些现代性问题的困扰,其中,贫富分化成为社会矛盾的焦点之一。改革开放以来,中国居民生活水平得到整体提升,但也出现了结构上的分化。造成贫富差距的原因是复杂多重的。其中,城乡二元体制造成了城乡资源分配不公和收入差距,垄断行业的存在则使得资源在少部分群体中集聚,加深了贫富之间的鸿沟。此外,中国的社会保障制度没能充分发挥其调节作用,使得部分底层群体无法解决温饱问题,造成"极贫"群体的出现。值得关注的是,单位体制下的既得利益者,在住房制度改革后又获得福利性住房,住房不公平由此产生财产不公平。国家对于不断拉大的收入差距主要采取宏观政策加以调控,改革财税制度和完善社会保障同时进行,但这并不能因此改变由城乡二元体制和垄断等所带来的必然结果,因而只能起到局部调节收入差距的效果,不能实现真正的社会公正。     

Interpolating the Lorenz Curve: Methods to Preserve Shape and Remain Consistent with the Concentration Curves for Components

C¹‐class interpolation methods that preserve monotonicity and convexity and are thus suitable for the estimation of the Lorenz curve from grouped data are not widely known. Instead, parametric models are usually applied for such estimation. Parametric models, however, have difficulty in accurately approximating every part of income/expenditure distributions. This paper proposes two types of C¹‐class shape‐preserving interpolation methods. One is a piecewise rational polynomial interpolation (proposed independently by Stineman and Delbourgo) that enables consistent interpolation of the concentration curves for income/expenditure components, attaining approximately the same accuracy as that of the existing methods when applied to decile‐grouped data or to more detailed aggregation. Another is a Hybrid interpolation that employs pieces of curves derived from parametric models on end intervals. Empirical comparisons show that the Hybrid interpolation (with the assistance of parametric models for class‐boundary estimation) outperforms the existing methods even when applied to quintile‐grouped data without class boundaries.     

REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN A BORROWING‐CONSTRAINED ECONOMY

We develop a two‐period, three‐class of income model where low‐income agents are borrowing constrained because of capital market imperfections, and where redistributive expenditure is financed by tax and government debt. When the degree of capital market imperfection is high, there is an ends‐against‐the‐middle equilibrium where the constrained low‐income and the unconstrained high‐income agents favour low levels of government debt and redistributive expenditure; these agents form a coalition against the middle. In this equilibrium, the levels of government debt and expenditure might be below the efficient levels, and the spread of income distribution results in a lower debt‐to‐GDP ratio.     

The economic effects of the 1920 eight-hour working day reform in Sweden

In 1920, the working day in Swedish manufacturing and services was cut from 10 to 8 hours without wages being cut correspondingly. Since workers demanded and got the same daily wage working 8 hours as they had with 10, real hourly wages increased dramatically; they were about 50% higher in 1921–1922 than they had been in 1919. This is the largest wage push in Swedish history, and this paper studies the consequences for profits, investments, capital intensity and unemployment. In traded manufacturing employers responded by increasing capital intensity and did not compensate for rising wages by raising prices, which led to a combination of jobless growth and low profit rates in the 1920s. Firms in non-traded manufacturing and services could raise prices and conserve profitability to a higher degree. In total, the effects of the reform were pro-labour. We discuss the implications for our understanding of interwar wages and employment, the literature on the decrease in inequality found in most industrial countries around 1920 and the rise of the ‘Swedish model’ in the 1920s and 1930s.     

Financial Insecurity in a World of Plenty

Abstract

The U.S. economy is addicted to the simulative impacts of household borrowing. Household debt has grown dramatically since the 1990s and has served to mitigate the detrimental effects of stagnant household wages. The accumulation of this debt has also had the macroeconomic impact of stimulating the economy, pushing it closer towards full employment. However does full employment stimulated by household indebtedness actually represent economic progress? It is argued that even the poorest citizen in a modern industrialized society is better off than a king of feudal Europe, yet in the United States such material prosperity is often tied to social insecurity thanks to debt. The growth of this debt has been enabled by a financial system that has evolved dramatically over the past forty years. The U.S. financial system’s primary role is no longer to finance investment but is rather a tool that enables a separation of ownership from use. Debt has fueled corporate profits which have enriched the shareholding class while at the same time the system has reduced the financial security of the majority of workers. This article crystalizes these issues by analyzing the differentials in financial circumstances faced by workers and shareholders in several major U.S. firms.