基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

Assessing strategic flight schedules at an airport using machine learning-based flight delay and cancellation predictions

To mitigate air traffic demand-capacity imbalances, large European airports implement strategic flight schedules, where flights are assigned arrival/departure slots several months prior to execution. We propose a generic assessment of such strategic schedules using predictions about arrival/departure flight delays and cancellations. We demonstrate our approach for strategic flight schedules in the period 2013–2018 at London Heathrow Airport. Together with the development of dedicated strategic flight schedule optimization models, our proposed approach supports an integrated strategic flight schedule assessment, where schedules are evaluated with respect to flight delays and cancellations.     

约束稀疏脉冲反演在GX气田开发中的应用研究

GX气田北部地区构造、断层特征较为复杂,地质建模较困难,而约束稀疏脉冲反演是一种基于地震道的反演方法,它是在波阻趋势的约束下,用最少的反射系数脉冲达到合成记录与地震道的最佳匹配。该方法对初始模型依赖性较小,中高频部分不受初始模型的影响,其反演结果能忠于实际地震资料,分辨率与地震资料接近,保真度高。以GX气田为例,通过约束稀疏脉冲反演技术对GX气田开展储层预测,其反演结果与实测井曲线吻合较好,能客观反映地质体在横向上的变化特征,该方法适用于储层横向变化快和非均质性较强的少井区块。     

Competition for goods in buyer-seller networks

Abstract. This paper studies competition in a network and how a network structure determines agents' individual payoffs. It constructs a general model of competition that can serve as a reduced form for specific models. The paper shows how agents' outside options, and hence their shares of surplus, derive from “opportunity paths” connecting them to direct and indirect alternative exchanges. Analyzing these paths, results show how third parties' links affect different agents' bargaining power. Even distant links may have large effects on agents' earnings. These payoff results, and the identification of the paths themselves, should prove useful to further analysis of network structure.     

基于LVQ神经网络的电信企业客户流失预测模型研究

随着人工智能的快速发展,人工神经网络被广泛地运用到分类预测领域。文章首先明确了客户流失的定义及其分类,然后分析了LVQ神经网络的基本原理,最后从研究样本的确定、预测变量的选取、模型的训练及评估三个方面构建了基于LVQ神经网络的电信企业客户流失预测模型,以期为电信企业客户流失预测模型的设计提供一定的借鉴意义。     

对油料作业过程中人员安全管理的思考

作业人员参与油料作业全过程的每个环节,在其中发挥着极其重要的作用。据相关统计,大部分油料安全事故均或多或少在与作业人员的不安全行为有关。为保证油料作业顺利进行,在油料作业过程中应加强对人员的安全管理。     

Jason与PowerLog联合处理技术在储层预测中的应用

研究采用PowerLog软件进行测井资料预处理,为反演打好基础。应用Jason软件算出波阻抗之后,利用测井统计的波阻抗和岩性的关系,把波阻抗数据体转换成岩性数据体,再用测井统计的波阻抗和孔隙度的关系,生成孔隙度数据体,最后在Jason软件的三维可视化模块中利用岩性数据体和孔隙度数据体进行储层提取。     

谈高压配网输变电工程可研阶段系统规划设计收资

文章就高压配网输变电工程可研阶段的系统规划设计收资情况作简要的分析,并通过工程实例,罗列出进行系统规划设计前所需要收集的大量数据及收资方法,以供同行参考。     

Gamma-Minimax Prediction for the Multinomial Distribution

Characterizations of gamma-minimax predictors for the linear combinations of the unknown parameter and the random variable having the multinomial distribution under arbitrary squared error loss are established in two situations – when the sample size is fixed and when the sample size is a realization of a random variable. It is always assumed that the available vague prior information about the unknown parameter can be described by a class of priors whose vector of first moments belongs to a suitable convex and compact set. Several known gamma-minimax and minimax results can be obtained from the characterizations derived in the present paper.     

上市公司财务困境的回归预测

在合理选择财务指标的基础上,利用因子分析计算个体综合因子得分,并在综合因子得分与财务指标之间建立回归预测模型;最后,择取2003年“财务状况异常”的上市公司来检验模型的合理性,证明了模型对陷入财务困境的公司有较高的预测准确性。判断财务困境的回归模型引入和其较方便的操作性,可以使证券市场及时发现财务失败公司,市场监管者可以减少公司违规、违法的监督成本,证券投资者可以缩小择股范围、加大投资的准确性。同时,通过上市来融资的股份公司也可以利用其预警作用,提前采取对策,防止出现因财务进一步恶化而被退市的命运。