Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan

The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined using a Bayesian learning model. Using two‐period panel‐structured survey data from Taiwan, we find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross‐sectional data, we find that males and married persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with previous studies, the longevity of the same‐sex parent is strongly associated with an individual's own expectation of living to age 75.     

中国式老龄化：基于人本信息力视角

尝试从人本信息力的视角研究中国式老龄化和老龄事业与产业发展思路。个人有尊严的长寿期望和目前养老体系的主导理念及承受能力存在悖论;未来应对老龄化,恰当处理老有所养（为）的关系是关键。事实上,人在60岁以后可以继续发展人本信息力,在70～80岁达到人本信息力发展的最高阶段;老龄信息资源是信息社会最可宝贵的财富之一。可由此出发规划建设新型养老体系和智慧老龄产业,拉动服务经济发展,促进经济增长方式根本转变。中国特色计划生育网络体系可以通过又一次转型,拓展为家庭综合服务网络前沿阵地,进而成为促进家庭健康信息力发展、实现智慧老龄目标的一支骨干力量。     

Is Life Annuity an Effective Tool for Managing Longevity Risk in Korea?*

We examine optimal life annuity planning for Korean pre‐retirees with a focus on the optimal timing of annuitization. The objective is to maximize the expected total utility from consumption during the retirement period. Benchmark cases with various values for net wealth, proportion of net wealth that is annuitized at the time of retirement and level of risk aversion are applied. We confirm that life annuity is an effective tool for managing longevity risk in Korea and it is important to select the timing of annuitization carefully to maximize the expected total utility and to avoid unnecessary financial ruin during retirement. In addition, we find that the optimal annuity strategy is more beneficial for those with lower levels of wealth than others.     

Basis risk in static versus dynamic longevity-risk hedging

This paper provides a tractable, parsimonious model for assessing basis risk in longevity and its effect on the hedging strategies of Pension Funds and annuity providers. Basis risk is captured by a single parameter, that measures the co-movement between the portfolio and the reference population’s longevity. The paper sets out the static, full and customized swap-hedge for an annuity, and compares it with a dynamic, partial, and index-based hedge. We calibrate our model to the UK and Scottish populations. The effectiveness of static versus dynamic strategies depends on the rebalancing frequency of the second, on the relative costs, and on basis risk, which does not affect fully-customized, static hedges. We show that appropriately calibrated dynamic hedging strategies can still be reasonably effective, even at low rebalancing frequencies.     

创业企业家的道德特质——企业的长寿基因

近年来,与创业活动持续活跃并存的一个突出现实是我国企业、尤其是中小企业的寿命较短。企业的多生速死既是资源的巨大浪费,更会产生许多负面的连带效应。因此,如果企业在初创之时就能够注入长寿基因,让企业先天优生,无疑会对企业后续的健康成长、基业长青带来重大裨益。而企业家的道德特质无疑是企业最重要的长寿基因之一,应该在企业初创和成长中注入企业,从而使企业能够顺利初创、健康成长、基业长青。     

果用林经济寿命的确定方法

采用回归分析的方法,对果用林的经济寿命进行量化分析,以果用林的果实连年产量和年均产量为指标,建立数学模型并求出经济伐期,为合理利用林地资源,延长果用林的经济寿命,增加单位面积产量,提高经济效益提供依据。     

Lee-Carter模型在中国城市人口死亡率预测中的应用与改进

由死亡率下降带来的长寿风险给社会、政治以及经济带来了新的挑战。为了更加准确地对长寿风险进行评估和管理,需要对未来死亡率趋势进行预测。本文针对我国死亡率数据样本量小以及数据存在缺失的实际情况,对Lee-Carter模型进行了改进,通过一个双随机过程对Lee-Carter模型中的时间项进行建模。在模型中考虑了样本量不足对预测结果造成的影响,使得改进后的Lee-Carter模型更加适合目前中国的人口死亡率预测。     

Capture,governance, and resilience: strategy implications from the history of Rome

Organizational resilience is a subject of great interest to management and strategy scholars. Drawing on over 1,000 years of historical data on the Republic of Rome, and focusing primarily on the period of its establishment (509 BC–338 BC), we identify two generic strategies, capture and governance, that together are essential for organizational resilience. Capture strategy relates to market expansions, while governance strategy refers to the capacity of an organization to assimilate, retain, defend, and increase its dominance within annexed markets. The history of Rome also reveals four supporting tactics—saving power, maintaining a stronghold base, isolating and weakening adversaries, and creating forward outposts—that shore up and reinforce the capture and governance strategies, to create a more enduring and resilient enterprise. Interestingly, a system‐wide view of the strategy‐tactic framework also offers insights on resilience through smallness, thus illustrating its conceptual utility to organizations of all sizes including small enterprises. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Endogenous longevity,public debt and endogenous growth

This study explores the mechanism that causes an inverted U-shaped relationship between the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate which is observed in empirical studies. We show that this relationship is caused even when the government does not introduce the golden rule of public finance, and government health care expenditure has important role in generating this relationship.     

United we stand,divided we fall: historical trajectory of strategic renewal activities at the Scandinavian Airlines System, 1946–2012

Although the second half of the twentieth century saw the rise and fall of ‘multi-flag companies’ (MFCs) in the civil aviation industry, our understanding of how some managed to buck the trend and achieve longevity remains limited. This article advances business history and strategic management research by examining the strategic renewal activities of Scandinavian Airlines (formerly Scandinavian Airlines System [SAS]) during the period 1946–2012. The study sheds light on the key roles of private and state owners, rivals as well as banks, in critical financial phases are discussed in terms of longevity in the company. The longevity of the business stems from the leaders’ ability to develop as anticipated and respond to change in their competitive arena in close interaction with the owners. Thus, incumbent firms that strategically renew themselves prior to or during market reform, such as deregulation, enhance their chances of developing the size of their networks and revenue streams. Our main contribution to business history and strategic management literatures is the development of context-specific stages, which shed light on the evolution of strategic renewal activities and shifts from older processes and routines towards customer service and efficiency.