Analysis of the Critical Aspects of the Generational Turnover in Family Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises （SMEs）

Family businesses, which aim at surviving today, have to deal with a precise modality： To ensure their continuity, entrepreneurs have to ensure the transfer of leadership from one generation to another inside of them. We do believe that this matter is worth being analyzed, since the succession, from one generation to another, can be considered as a crucial variable in maintaining family small- and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs） over time. Therefore, after investigating the main features, problems, and factors leading to the succession processes, in the second part of this article, an empirical analysis will be carried out, by comparing several European countries on the basis of data from the European Commission. This article contributes to enriching, from a theoretical point of view, the conceptual framework used for investigating the dynamics in the continuity of SMEs. Moreover, empirically, it contributes to the increasing literature on family businesses by comparing several European countries in order to understand what originates the longevity of family SMEs.     

长寿风险、养老金体制与资本积累

文章利用考虑死力连续变化的随机OLG模型,对长寿风险与资本积累之间的关系进行了探讨。在考虑我国统账结合养老金安排的体制背景下,通过重新构建的动态生命表,数值模拟得到的结果与生命周期理论一致,即长寿风险的增加会促进资本积累,而我国现有的养老金体制安排不能促进资本积累。模拟的改革方案显示提高个人账户在统账结合体制中的相对比重会极大地促进资本积累。     

基于长寿风险理论的退休年龄和投资收益率组合分析

本文在利用泊松双线性模型对我国未来人口死亡率曲线进行预测的基础上,采用长寿风险模型预测了我国养老金个人账户的财务平衡状况以及最佳退休年龄和投资收益率的匹配组合。结论认为,养老金个人账户压力较大的是女性群体,因此应首先考虑提高女性劳动者的退休年龄。另外,男性和女性在不同的投资收益率下有最佳退休路径可选择。     

The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in Sweden, 1997–2010: evidence from longitudinal,disease-level data

We use longitudinal, disease-level data to analyze the impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in Sweden, where mean age at death increased by 1.88 years during the period 1997–2010. Pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have increased mean age at death by 0.60 years during the period. The estimates indicate that longevity depends on the number of drugs to treat a disease, not the number of drug classes. Pharmaceutical innovation also reduced hospital utilization; the estimates indicate that an increase in the number of drugs commercialized for a disease reduces the number of hospital days due to the disease 8 years later, primarily due to its effect on the number of hospital discharges. The cost per life-year gained from the introduction of new drugs is estimated to be a small fraction of leading economists’ estimates of the value of a 1-year increase in life expectancy.     

Social security is NOT a substitute for annuity markets

Common wisdom suggests that a fully-funded actuarially fair social security system should increase welfare when households face longevity risk and annuity markets are missing. This wisdom is based on the observation that social security pays benefits as life annuities and therefore appears to complete the market. However, we argue that common wisdom is based on a benefit-only analysis that ignores a fundamental cost—social security crowds out the bequests that households leave (and receive) in general equilibrium. We conduct a general equilibrium cost-benefit analysis of the longevity insurance role of social security, and we show that under certain conditions this decline in bequest income offsets any possible gains from access to a public annuity pool. We abstract from distortions to national income and factor prices to show that the equilibrium bequest channel is all that is needed to reach this conclusion.     

A co-evolutionary analysis of longevity: Pakhoed and its predecessors

In this study of the warehousing company Pakhoed and its predecessors over a period of 200 years, we analyse the configuration of environmental forces, exploitation and exploration, and three firm-level longevity factors: a tolerant management style and decentralised structure; a strong sense of identity; and a conservative financial policy. The idiosyncratic set-up of Pakhoed's forerunners enabled their long-term survival through co-evolution with an environment that both compelled them to be responsive and provided them with scarce resources. In the most recent period, failed explorations helped Pakhoed to strengthen its sense of identity and to focus on a well-chosen field of exploitation.     

The effect of coresidence on parental health in Japan

The empirical evidence of the effect of intergenerational coresidence by elderly parents and their adult children on parental health remains inconclusive. This study provides a new estimate of the coresidence effect by addressing non-random selection and heterogeneity in the treatment effect. Examination of Japanese data reveals: (i) an insignificant, negative average coresidence effect; (ii) a significant, negative coresidence effect on the treated; and (iii) that parents with unmet care needs and limited resources, typically widowed, disabled mothers, are most likely to suffer from a significant, negative coresidence effect. The results support the theory that coresidence may worsen elderly parents’ health because care burdens on their adult children create disincentives for the parents to invest in longevity. The significant heterogeneity in the coresidence effect suggests potential scope for a better-targeted long-term care program.     

基于死亡率免疫理论的自然对冲有效性评估

为应对长寿风险对年金产品的影响,本文提出分段对冲策略,并以死亡率免疫和死亡率久期规则为理论基础探讨该策略的有效性问题。为避免传统久期匹配方法中参数估计误差的累积和传导,借助WinBUGS软件和贝叶斯Markov Chain Monte Carlo方法,在统一的计算框架下完成了死亡率预测、死亡率久期计算和对冲效果的数值模拟;并以4种分段组合准备金数据的三维图、方差缩减比(VRR)和VaR值为指标进行长寿风险对冲有效性的对比,结果表明低年龄寿险保单和高年龄年金保单组合具有最平滑的三维图,最小的VRR和VaR值,可明显提高长寿风险自然对冲的有效性。     

长寿风险对寿险和年金产品定价的对冲效应研究

作为老龄社会的重要风险,长寿风险专题研究是近20年来公共养老金领域、保险公司关注的热点。长寿风险引发的保险公司寿险产品定价高估和年金产品定价低估之间存在潜在的自然对冲效应。为了量化这种对冲效应的长期影响,本文基于构建的同时涵盖低龄、高龄和超高龄在内的整个生命跨度的全年龄人口动态死亡率模型,采用对冲弹性量化终身寿险与终身年金、两全保险与定期年金、递延寿险与递延年金三类保障型寿险产品和养老型年金产品对冲效应的动态演变,并通过敏感性分析扩展探讨利率变化对对冲效应的长期影响。研究发现,从单位寿险和年金产品组合的净对冲效应来看,由于保险公司的产品定价区分了性别差异,使得女性的对冲效应更明显,因而女性对应的产品组合中的长寿风险对保险公司的影响更不显著。作为系统性风险,利率风险和长寿风险也存在对冲,利率上升能抵消或对冲长寿风险的影响,低利率下长寿风险更显著。     

Survival analysis of pension scheme mortality when data are missing

Missing data is a problem that may be faced by actuaries when analysing mortality data. In this paper we deal with pension scheme data, where the future lifetime of each member is modelled by means of parametric survival models incorporating covariates, which may be missing for some individuals. Parameters are estimated by likelihood-based techniques. We analyse statistical issues, such as parameter identifiability, and propose an algorithm to handle the estimation task. Finally, we analyse the financial impact of including covariates maximally, compared with excluding parts of the mortality experience where data are missing; in particular we consider annuity factors and mis-estimation risk capital requirements.