Comparing Trading Performance of the Constant and Dynamic Hedge Models: A Note

The constant and dynamic hedge models, with the presence of transaction costs are compared for the Share Price Index futures contract trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. The optimal hedge ratio is estimated by using a dynamic, bivariate two-stage model for the return equation with a dynamic GARCH error structure for the conditional hedge ratios. When portfolio projections are compared based on their profit positions (net of transaction costs), the GARCH hedge model dominates the next best competitor in terms of trading profit.     

Non-Additive Beliefs and Strategic Equilibria

This paper studies n-player games where players' beliefs about their opponents' behaviour are modelled as non-additive probabilities. The concept of an “equilibrium under uncertainty” which is introduced in this paper extends the equilibrium notion of Dow and Werlang (1994, J. Econom. Theory64, 305–324) to n-player games in strategic form. Existence of such an equilibrium is demonstrated under usual conditions. For low degrees of ambiguity, equilibria under uncertainty approximate Nash equilibria. At the other extreme, with a low degree of confidence, maximin equilibria appear. Finally, robustness against a lack of confidence may be viewed as a refinement for Nash equilibria. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D81.     

珠江三角洲经济发展、城市扩张与农田流失研究——以东莞市为例

珠江三角洲自改革开放的２０年来经历了巨大的发展,但也导致了城市的迅速扩张以及大量宝贵农田的流失。本文以珠江三角洲发展最快的城市之一的东莞为例探讨其经济发展、城市扩张以及农田流失的关系。研究发现了农田流失与不同阶段的经济发展有密切的关系。自进入９０年代以来,由于房地产的过热发展,造成了农田的加速流失,严重浪费土地资源。珠江三角洲的农田流失与乡镇企业的发展,地方自主权的扩大,香港的影响,交通条件的改善以及土地管理等一系列因素有关。     

What Does it Take to Eliminate the use of a Strategy Strictly Dominated by a Mixture?

This paper reports an experiment to determine whether subjects will learn to stop using a strictly dominated strategy that can be an above average reply. It is difficult to find an experimental design that eliminates the play of the strictly dominated strategy completely. The least effective treatment used money to motivate behavior directly. The most effective treatment used a binary-lottery with money prizes to induce preferences, but even this treatment required giving subjects plenty of experience. Doing so reduced the play of the strictly dominated strategy to around 10 percent by the end of a session. There is no evidence for the explosive cycling needed to make the strictly dominated strategy an above average reply.Related research available at http://erl.tamu.edu/     

建立社会信用制度 推动经济健康发展

社会信用体系是市场经济运行的支柱,而信用缺失的普遍性和严重性正影响并威胁我国经济的正常运行和发展。纠正信用缺失,建立完整的社会信用体系,规范经济主体信用行为,加强惩治失信行为的法律、法规的制定,这是信用经济时代对我们提出的要求。     

中国区际分割的产业效率损失实证分析

根据技术效率分析框架,提出产业综合技术效率概念,并将其分解为综合纯技术效率、综合规模效率和区际技术效率,通过对区际分割对化学工业的产业效率损失的测算,发现与2002年相比较,我国2003年化学工业产业的区际技术效率损失有所下降。     

Risk Averters that Love Risk? Marginal Risk Aversion in Comparison to a Reference Gamble

We propose an analytical distinction between standard risk aversion based on the valuation of a single gamble and marginal risk aversion based on the change in valuation between two gambles. We measure marginal risk aversion in two dimensions—mean and variance. Data from a field experiment is used to study marginal risk aversion. Our results suggest that individuals rely on a reference gamble when assessing marginal risk. Individual responses to marginal changes in mean and variance are nearly identical in direction and magnitude—suggesting that information on both standard and marginal risk aversion is needed to accurately model behavior.     

基于FPT的入境旅游市场季节风险规避研究——以台湾客源为例

季节性是旅游业最典型的特征之一,也是旅游业常面临的风险问题,但有关如何规避旅游季节风险的研究比较少。基于1998—2007年中国入境旅游台湾客源市场客流月度分布数据,引入被广泛应用于证券市场的证券组合理论（Financial portfolio theory,简称FPT）,构建旅游市场季节风险规避模型,运用季节分布曲线、SRI指数、SRCV系数对台湾市场的季节风险进行实证分析,并依据规避模型计算出一系列台湾市场季节风险最低时的有效月度市场组合,绘出规避台湾市场季节风险的有效边界,为规避其季节风险问题提供一种定量的分析方法,为制订针对台湾客源市场的入境旅游战略规划提供科学的决策依据,也为今后类似问题的研究提供分析方法的借鉴,指导中国旅游业可持续发展。     

中国重点生态功能区生态用地时空格局变化研究

研究目的:掌握中国25个国家级重点生态功能区内生态用地现状及时空演变规律与特征。研究方法:在界定生态用地内涵和范围的基础上,依据第二次全国土地调查及逐年变更调查数据,以及全国城镇土地利用汇总成果,借助Arc GIS 10.3软件平台,分析中国25个国家级重点生态功能区生态用地现状及2009—2015年间时空演变特征,并总结生态用地变化原因。研究结果:(1)各重点生态功能区生态用地结构及差异较大,面积总体稳定;(2)各重点生态功能区生态用地变化幅度不同,人口较为密集、经济较为发达的中部和东北部地区减少幅度明显高于西部地区;(3)生态用地面积减少的第一大类流向是耕地,一定程度上受现行有关土地政策影响;(4)重点生态功能区内生态用地质量总体改善。研究结论:尽管近年来中国重点生态功能区内生态用地保护卓见成效,但仍需进一步加强监管,采取各种措施进一步保护。     

尾水导流工程对南水北调东线社会影响的损益

为了准确衡量尾水导流工程建设对南水北调东线工程沿线地区的社会影响,从沿线居民生活质量、身体健康、心理认可度、居民环境意识4个方面对尾水导流工程社会影响损益进行研究。通过采用意愿调查法、疾病成本法、市场价值法、成本费用法等环境影响损益计量方法及问卷调查等社会学方法,建立尾水导流工程社会影响损益货币化计量模型,并以对生活质量的影响核算为例,实现尾水导流工程社会影响的货币化计量。实证结果显示:尾水导流工程对南水北调东线工程居民生活质量影响效益合计为850 560.16万元,社会效益显著。该模型可为水利工程建设社会影响评价提供借鉴和参考。