我国装备制造业经济效益评价——基于拉开档次法

对现有的工业经济效益评价指标体系进行了分析,并提出了改进建议。运用拉开档次法评价了我国及27个省(自治区、直辖市)装备制造业的经济效益情况。研究结果显示:我国装备制造业的经济效益不容乐观,尤其是西部地区装备制造业的经济效益较低。提出建议:我国装备制造业应调整产业结构,提高自主创新能力,并将经济增长方式由粗放型转变为集约型。     

基于扩展审计博弈的动态均值估计抽样方法

针对均值估计抽样方法的缺陷,以审计风险为中心,将扩展审计博弈与审计抽样相结合,提出了一种改进的均值估计抽样方法。该方法解决了审计风险计量、审计抽样的系统性决策问题,可帮助审计师在不确定条件下进行策略分析与选择,提高了均值估计抽样的可靠性和适用性。最后,用实例演示均值估计抽样过程以证实该方法的有效性。     

Growth and value hybrid valuation model based on mean reversion

This article proposes a novel valuation model, growth and value hybrid model, to estimate the stock price. This proposed model combines the essence of the asset-based approach, the income-based approach, and the principle of mean reversion to develop the theoretical closed-form formula consisting of three coefficients: value coefficient, value support coefficient and growth coefficient. Regression analysis is employed to fit market data to determine these coefficients. Moreover, this study proposes the double sorting method to build the quantile regression models of the formula to estimate the stock price at a specific quantile. The results show that the predictive capability of the hybrid valuation model is superior to the model without using value support coefficient, which supports the assumption that the PBR is not associated with the ROE when the ROE is less than a threshold. In different time periods of the stock market, no significant difference exists on the value support coefficient. However, the variations of the value coefficient and the growth coefficient are significant.     

Detecting policy effects with wage rigidity and instability – evidence on the Taiwan labour market

With stagnant wages and growing productivity, a widening gap is becoming prevalent in global labour markets. The relationship between wages and productivity has become indeterminate, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. This article presents the phenomenon for why salary rarely follows up with productivity after an economy recovers. By using the GMM method, this study shows the interaction among wage, productivity and tightness, in which we illustrate the Taiwan labour market as an example to show how hiring system changes press wages away from an efficient allocation, causing instability and market failure. Surveying 35 labour markets for different industries, we reveal that the situation in the labour markets has drastically changed since 2008. We find that this resulted in a severe problem when the Taiwan firms got used to policies like ‘22K’, ‘fix-term contract’ and ‘unpaid leave’ programmes. These plans negatively impacted the economy and raised market failure with instability.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

中国B股市场羊群效应检验

金融市场微观结构理论和行为金融学的兴起引起了人们对证券市场羊群效应的广泛关注。在收集中国深市和沪市B股数据的基础上,采用个股横截面收益率的绝对偏离度指标检验B股市场的羊群效应。结果发现,和A股市场一样,B股同样存在显著的羊群效应,而且深市B股羊群效应强于沪市B股。如果以2001年2月19日B股向国内个人投资者开放作为分界点,开放后的羊群效应比开放前更显著。     

我国预算执行中超收超支的形成机制及治理

近几年,我国预算执行中的超收和超支问题随着超收规模和超支规模的扩大而引起广泛关注.国内学者对于超收的形成原因进行了诸多探讨,普遍认为超收是超支的决定因素.理论研究和实证研究超收和超支形成机制的结果显示:虽然超收是超支最初产生的直接原因,但是地方政府支出需求的刚性和对资金自由裁量权的追求形成了对超收的“倒逼机制”,尤其是1994年分税制改革后地方财力与事权不匹配所产生的支出缺口,使得地方政府逐渐对财政超收产生了路径依赖.解决超收和超支问题最根本的措施是防止超收与超支的直接转化.此外,如何加强预算约束,从技术、行政和法制层面控制超收规模也是下一步改革中需要关注的问题.     

银行业:收益、股价及投资价值的比较分析

近年来,我国股票市场出现了一个奇异现象,即银行板块业绩优异,但其股价却严重偏离其价值。研究表明,出现这一奇特现象,不是因为该行业的股票盘子大,也不是因为政府融资平台和房地产泡沫等问题的存在导致该行业风险大,而是因为银行股波动性小,同时,也是因为相对来说我国上市公司中银行业经营管理规范、稳健,没有太多可炒作的题材,因此不受市场的投机性资金追捧。     

曹妃甸软土地基偏桩现象分析与处理措施

曹妃甸图书行政楼预制管桩基础发生偏桩事故,经分析偏桩产生的主要原因是基坑周围动荷载过大,引起桩身整体偏移。对此采用针对性处理措施,使之纠偏。实践证明,处理措施是正确的。     

职业教育更要让人才全面发展

随着我国职业教育的发展,职业教育在实际的开展过程出现了偏离教育目标的问题。本文从职业教育与人的全面发展关系入手,分析职业技术教育偏离目标的原因,从认识上回归教育的范畴,以人的全面发展为宗旨,推动职业教育发展。