城市能源代谢的异质性分析——以北京市为例

充分探究城市能源代谢过程中部门间的内在差异,深入解析并评估其对城市能源代谢过程的影响对于进一步优化城市能源代谢结构,推动节能减排、提质增效具有重要价值。本文基于引力模型分析城市能源代谢过程中能源流两端连接节点的属性差异,选取煤、石油、天然气三种能源,以北京市非首都功能疏解部门为例探究要素差异及部门自身属性差异在能源代谢过程中的影响;利用情景分析法,分析两种能源优化强度和三种部门疏解强度的6种组合情景下四部门的不同种类能源消耗的变化。结果表明,不同要素对部门能源消耗的正负反馈机制以及不同部门对不同能源偏好程度均存在异质性,这种异质性导致不同政策情景对北京市非首都功能疏解部门能源结构优化的作用效果不同。强优化强疏解情景对于制造业部门煤和天然气能源的替代最为有利,低疏解强优化情景对控制交通业及批发和零售业部门的能源消费,改善教育业的能源消费结构最有利。     

Towards an integrated model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers, pressures and impacts. A feasibility study based on three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms

Effective policies to slow the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity loss should reduce socioeconomic pressures on biodiversity, either directly or by modifying their underlying socioeconomic driving forces. The design of such policies is currently hampered by the limited understanding of socioeconomic drivers of and pressures on biodiversity as well as by lacking data, indicators and models. In order to improve understanding of these issues we here propose a conceptual model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. The model is based on the drivers-pressures-impacts-states-responses (DPSIR) scheme and on the socioeconomic metabolism approach. The aim of the model is to guide research aimed at improving our understanding of socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers and to serve as a basis for the development of formal, quantitative models in that field. Based on three European long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms, we analyze the model's applicability and suitability as well as data availability and research needs. These platforms are the Danube Delta Wetland System in Romania, the Doñana in Spain and the Eisenwurzen in Austria. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and breeding bird richness in the Eisenwurzen demonstrates the ability of HANPP to provide a link between socioeconomic pressures/drivers and biodiversity. The analysis of the case studies underlines the potential utility of the conceptual model to guide future research into socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. However, considerable investments in monitoring and reconstruction of past trajectories as well as in model development will be required before mathematical (computer) models of the interrelation processes between society and ecosystems can be successfully deployed.     

Effects of food consumption patterns on paddy field use in Taiwan

Societal metabolism and land use are significant and interrelated issues, and play a role in sustainable development. How a society's metabolism relates to local land use is typically affected by the particular context of the society under study, which is usually shaped by many factors, including economic, ecological, cultural, technological, and political factors. This study examines the effects of changes in food consumption patterns – decreasing per capita consumption of rice and increasing per capita consumption of wheat flour and meat – on the use of paddy fields in Taiwan. Although rice is grown domestically, wheat, which is a substitute for rice, is mainly imported. Moreover, the domestic livestock industry depends heavily on imported crops for low-cost feed. Accordingly, dietary changes have significantly decreased the demand for local paddy fields to grow crops. Additionally, the diversion of paddy fields to grow forage crops, which has been promoted by the Taiwanese government by guaranteeing prices for feed maize for 14 years, was discouraged when Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, as Taiwan was required at that time to reduce by 20% its aggregate measure of support. The presented Taiwan case provides an empirical example of how a change in input characteristics (supply sources in a spatial dimension) of societal metabolism can, together with other factors, significantly affect local paddy fields, and discusses the underlying implications for sustainable development.     

城市化与可持续城市化的理论探讨

快速城市化给我国城市化的健康发展带来巨大挑战。本文从结构、过程和功能三方面分析了城市生态系统的属性,探讨了城市化的概念及其正负两方面的效应,提出了要实现可持续的城市化,必须保证城市生态系统的结构合理、过程高效、功能完善,并从这三方面讨论了可持续城市化的内涵:随着城市化进程的不断推进,城市人均生态足迹增长得到控制,城市代谢效率不断提高,居民福利不断增长。     

Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century

The growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change. We present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting (MFA). On the grounds of published statistical data, data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources, we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass, fossil energy carriers, metal ores, industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005. This period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth. The paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy, population growth and primary energy consumption. We show that during the last century, global materials use increased 8-fold. Humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons (Gt) of materials per year. In particular, the period after WWII was characterized by rapid physical growth, driven by both population and economic growth. Within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials. Materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy, but faster than world population. As a consequence, material intensity (i.e. the amount of materials required per unit of GDP) declined, while materials use per capita doubled from 4.6 to 10.3 t/cap/yr. The main material groups show different trajectories. While biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth, the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace. We show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use, while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions. So far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development.     

Spatial Practices and the Institutionalization of Water Sanitation Services in Southern Metropolises: The case of Jakarta and its Kampung Kojan

This article examines the spatial practices and forms of institutionalization in the water and water sanitation sector in Jakarta, capital of Indonesia, and especially in Kampung Kojan in the Kalideres subdistrict of Jakarta. To this end, it develops a three‐layered analytical framework viewing the city as a multi‐scalar socio‐ecological system in which different forms of human–water relations and their institutionalization are found. Particular attention is given to informality in this system and how it interacts with ‘regular’ state and corporate market sector practices. Within these interactive dynamics, informality is not only understood as a survival strategy but also as a creative practice connecting various social‐ecological opportunities, traditional and contemporary technologies and modes of institutionalization to each other. Ongoing institutionalization processes in the formal and informal economy, as well as between them, are analysed. Opportunities to integrate and regularize the diverse water sanitation services into community‐led closed water–wastewater cycles capable of ensuring public health and sustaining a bio‐hydrological balance at the local level are explored.     

Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: A multiple-level integrated assessment

This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets.     

More than energy transformations: a historical transition from organic to industrialized farm systems in a Mediterranean village (Les Oluges,Catalonia, 1860–1959–1999)

The analysis of energy efficiency of agroecosystems from a sociometabolic perspective is a useful way to assess the sustainability of farm systems. In this paper we examine the transition of a Mediterranean agroecosystem from an organic farm system in the mid nineteenth century to an industrialized one at the end of the twentieth century by means of the technologies and ideology of the Green Revolution. Given that many of the world’s agricultural systems have experienced, or are currently experiencing this transformation, our results are relevant for building more sustainable agricultural systems in future. Our results highlight the relevance of livestock density, and the flows of biomass reused and unharvested biomass as key elements affecting the sustainability of the agroecosystem not only from a socioeconomic perspective, but also from an agroecological point of view. Additionally, from a biocultural perspective our investigation sustains the relevance of the study of traditional farm systems for the development of a sustainable agriculture.     

Urban Political Ecology Beyond Methodological Cityism

The concept of planetary urbanization has emerged in recent years amongst neo‐Lefebvrian urban scholars who see urbanization as a process taking place at all spatial scales. This article analyses recent critiques of the urban political ecology (UPE) literature which argue that much of the work in the field has been guilty of focusing exclusively on the traditional bounded city unit rather than urbanization as a process. In response, the article reviews various strands of the UPE literature which have (always) moved beyond ‘the city’ to consider the various metabolisms and circulations of humans and non‐humans connecting cities with places outside of their borders at a variety of scales. Furthermore, it suggests how these approaches can productively work with the insights of the planetary urbanization literature, in considering both the changing nature of urbanization and also the socio‐ecological and political implications of these changes. Finally, the article suggests how the methodological approach of the ‘site multiple’ and its focus on everyday practices and lived experiences can be useful for researching diverse urban phenomena and their more‐than‐urban connections.     

基于新陈代谢GM-Markov模型的股价预测

本文建立了新陈代谢GM-Markov模型。该模型很好地吸收了GM模型及Markov模型的优点,同时新陈代谢的作用保证了不断加入新信息而去除旧信息,从而提高了模型的预测精度,预测结果与实际状况基本相符,这说明用该模型来预测股票价格走势是可行的。