怎样看待当前的货币信贷形势——基于科学发展观的一个视角

针对当前我国经济领域中存在的货币信贷快速增长和固定资产投资反弹现象,本文从科学发展观视角全面剖析了当前货币信贷的运行轨迹,并就货币信贷快速增长与固定资产投资反弹可能引发的相关问题进行了思考.本文认为,当前我国货币信贷快速增长的根源在于人民币汇率的错配与国内实行的低利率甚至负利率所致,因此,当前我国的政策应当重点从加快利率市场化改革、加快汇率市场化改革、加快推进金融体制改革和加快推动金融市场建设等4个方面入手.     

Overeducation,job mobility and earnings mobility among holders of first degrees

Overeducation has been researched extensively for nearly three decades, but some major issues in regard to it are still topics of ongoing debate. By using a panel data, that combines a survey of two cohorts of Israeli first-degree holders and data from administrative sources on jobs and wages, we examine the contribution of job turnover, cognitive abilities and continuing graduate studies to the likelihood of overeducation and wage dynamics. The study produces four main findings. First, rapid job-switching makes a negative contribution to the increase in employee’s wage and there is a negative correlation between two variables – an employee’s tenure and the number of past employers in the years after the completion of degree studies – and the probability of being overeducated. Second, the contribution of the individual’s cognitive abilities and quantitative reasoning skills to the likelihood of becoming overeducated is negative. Third, the wages of overeducated employees are some 11% lower and rise more slowly than the wages of those whose level of schooling corresponds to their jobs; this outcome may be interpreted as indicating that the ‘scars’ of being overeducated tend to be long-lasting. Fourth, the overeducated workers have lower propensity to continue to advanced academic studies.     

The Spatial Determinants Of Wage Inequality: Evidence From Recent Latina Immigrants In Southern California

Abstract

Recent Latina immigrants to the United States earn lower hourly wages than any other broad demographic group. This paper investigates the role space and scale play in shaping the employment opportunities and wages this group receives in Southern California relative to others there. Results suggest that, although individual factors such as education, experience, and ability to speak English are important, spatial forces also influence wages. Access to jobs, particularly low-skilled jobs and those held by Latinos, as well as ethnic neighborhood networks, explain a large share of the variation in hourly wages. The paper provides evidence that labor-market scales differ across groups within US metropolitan areas, with recent Latina immigrants being more geographically constrained and hence more dependent on local opportunities and resources than other workers, with the exception of black women.     

外汇储备:货币当局的困境与应对思路

中国货币当局在外汇储备的存量、流量管理以及汇率体制三个层面正同时处于两难选择的困境.作为一种理论参照,"永恒三角"对此的解释存在局限.进一步的分析表明,困境的现实根源在于中国迄今.出口导向、投资驱动"的经济发展路径.走出这一困境不仅需要金融制度层面的相应调整,还必须在实体经济层面做出根本性转变.转变的具体措施与优先次序必须加以慎重考虑.     

产业集聚、资源错配与环境治理的协同效应分析

解决经济增长与环境污染之间的矛盾是新时期我国经济发展过程中的重要任务,产业分散以及资源错配被认为是助长环境污染的重要诱因。论文基于2010—2018年省级面板数据,实证检验了产业集聚、资源错配与环境污染之间的关系,研究结果表明:整体来看产业集聚会减少污染物的排放,但在产业发展初期,集聚在一定程度上会增加污染物的排放;资源错配与污染物排放显著负相关,经过一系列稳健性检验,这一结论仍然成立;产业集聚有利于减少资源错配,提高资源分配效率,从而减少环境污染,产业集聚与资源配置在环境治理过程中会产生正向协同效应。     

Are graduates’ intrapreneurial skills optimally used for innovation?

This paper studies the extent to which higher education graduates with higher intrapreneurial skills – creative, brokering, and championing skills – are more involved in innovation. Crucially, we differentiate between graduates employed in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) occupations and those employed in business occupations. Using data on higher education graduates from 11 European countries, we find that, in both STEM and business occupations, high levels of creative skills are important to involvement in innovation. Higher levels of brokering skills are particularly important for graduates employed in STEM occupations, whereas higher levels of championing skills are particularly important for those in business occupations. We find, however, that the innovative potential of graduates with higher levels of intrapreneurial skills is not optimally utilized for innovation. Our study provides valuable insights for those selecting graduates for STEM and business occupations based on specific intrapreneurial skills to foster both product and process innovation, as well as for those in charge of designing higher education study curricula.     

Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors

The structure of income is a foremost address within research on banks’ performance, especially with regard to effects on the resilience of banks’ earnings. Indeed, given their central position in the economy, banks shall thrive to generate sustainable earnings and control for their potential volatility. Existing studies mostly consider the weight of non‐net interest income (nonNII) as opposed to the traditional NII income source. Such aggregated nonNII is found to increase earnings risk but more granular studies conflict. We propose an original investigation of the influence of economic and financial conditions on various income types, assuming that performance may actually be driven by both the income structure and external conditions. We focus European banks, which have long been allowed to diversify beyond retail banking. Out of a straight panel framework, we question if the influence of external conditions spreads to earnings components other than credit losses and trading income and if it does allow for diversification benefits among components. We find that each component actually evolves owing to its own equation. Furthermore, effects of single variables may cumulate over different components of earnings (e.g. GDP) or provide with diversification benefits. These effects are all the more important since they are not mitigated by operating expenses. Hence, over a regarded period, banks’ performance depends upon their structure of income and upon volatilities and correlations of influential variables. Besides controlling for ex‐ante volatility, our approach shows that a given structure of income is not necessarily more resilient than others but that selected non‐banking income may support a higher stability of Earnings     

Do Skill Mismatches Create a Wage Penalty? Alternative Estimates for Korea*

In this paper, we estimate the wage penalty of skill mismatches among young Korean workers using propensity score matching (PSM) and ordinary least squares (OLS) methods. OLS estimates suggest that a moderate wage penalty results from skill mismatches: 3.8 percent for men and 5.6 percent for women. In contrast, PSM estimates suggest a weakly significant wage penalty for men and women only when kernel matching (KM) is used, but not when nearest neighbor matching(NNM) or radius matching (RM) techniques are used. These results contradict the findings of previous studies and suggest that there may not be a substantial wage penalty associated with skill mismatches.     

Retraining for the unemployed and the quality of the job match

ABSTRACT

In Germany, retraining is an important measure in active labour market policy, providing unemployed individuals with extensive vocational training. Using administrative data, we show that retraining participants are more likely to take up jobs that require their educational degree and are more often employed in those occupations for which they have received vocational training. Moreover, retraining leads to higher earnings. As these effects may be driven by the positive impact of retraining on employment, we additionally try to isolate the direct effect by restricting our analyses to those formerly unemployed who find employment irrespective of participation in retraining.     

How might the negative impact of higher education on growth be explained? The role of vertical qualification (mis)match in an MRW‐type model

This study explores the impact of higher education on growth in 11 new EU members over the period 2000–2016 using an augmented MRW‐type model which takes into account the quality of education and vertical mismatch. More precisely, it tests whether the accelerating increase of college graduates causes an oversupply of educated labour which, in turn, extends the qualification mismatch and adversely affects growth of per capita income. We find that an increase of the most educated labour force does not per se lead to a higher growth rate. The impact of human capital becomes positive and statistically significant only if graduates with occupations requiring tertiary education are considered in the model. In addition, the econometric outcome implies that the extent of skill mismatch is determined primarily by the rising female population with college education and the gross value added of trade‐related services.