东北地区基本公共服务失配度时空格局演化与形成机理

从失配的角度,尝试提出基本公共服务失配度的概念,并将生态系统评估中的健康距离模型引入到基本公共服务研究中,研究了2003—2012年东北地区基本公共服务失配度的时空格局演化过程及形成机理。研究发现:时间序列上,东北地区基本公共服务失配度演化分为高度失配主导阶段(2003—2004年),失配度徘徊下降阶段(2005—2008年)和失配度快速下降阶段(2009—2012年);基本公共服务失配度整体上呈现下降趋势,且区域绝对差异不断扩大。空间演化上,失配度空间格局呈现由高度失配均衡格局向低度失配均衡格局演进的趋势,并逐渐呈现"T"字形格局;形成三个基本公共服务配置较好的高值中心,且空间外溢效应显现;省际之间辽宁配置较好,黑龙江和内蒙古东部次之,吉林失配较为严重,且内部区域差异呈扩大趋势。区域经济空间结构变迁、地方政府公共服务政策以及国家宏观政策调控共同作用于东北地区基本公共服务失配度时空格局演化。     

进化心理学视野中的生态经济现象

本文就当前社会中普遍存在并严重危及可持续发展的过度消费现象和经济增长与主观幸福感的“失配”现象从进化心理学视角进行了解读,并针对前者提出应重新认识导致过度消费的炫耀性消费策略,针对后者提出应对当前主流的进步观进行反思。     

人民币汇率波动的微观效应——基于制造业上市公司财务数据的分析

根据我国522家制造业上市企业2001—2007年的财务数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析人民币汇率波动对企业融资能力的影响。研究结果表明:在企业存在货币错配的情况下,当期和滞后1期的人民币汇率波动对企业短期信贷能力和总信贷能力有显著的正相关效应,且滞后1期的效应更为明显,但对长期信贷能力的影响不明显。由于我国企业存在大量的债务型货币错配,人民币有效汇率的贬值给我国企业的融资能力带来了负面影响。     

Currency devaluations,aggregate demand,and debt dynamics in economies with foreign currency liabilities

The article uses a post Kaleckian model to analyze how currency devaluations affect aggregate demand and capital accumulation in an economy with foreign currency liabilities in the short-run. In benchmark post Kaleckian open economy models, currency devaluations have two effects. First, they change international price competitiveness and thus affect net exports. Second, devaluations change income distribution and thereby affect consumption and investment demand. The overall effect on aggregate demand and investment is ambiguous and depends on parameter values. Existing models, however, disregard balance sheet effects that arise from foreign currency-denominated external debt. The article develops a novel post Kaleckian open economy model that introduces foreign currency-denominated external debt and balance sheet effects to examine the demand-effects of devaluations. Furthermore, the article models the dynamics of external and domestic corporate debt. It discusses how an economy may end up in a vicious cycle of foreign-currency indebtedness and derives the conditions under which indebtedness becomes stable or unstable. It shows that the existence of foreign currency-denominated debt means that contractionary devaluations are more likely, and that foreign interest rate hikes, and high illiquidity and risk premia compromise debt sustainability. Devaluations only stabilize debt ratios if they succeed in boosting domestic capital accumulation.     

出口与劳动力市场“错配”——江苏制造业的证据

文章把异于传统劳动力市场、在中国最典型的高技能劳动过剩与低技能劳动短缺现象称为中国式劳动力市场错配,认为全球分工体系中发展中国家与发达国家以产品贸易表现的就业互换是导致发展中国家劳动力市场出现错配的重要原因。采用企业层面微观数据进行的实证分析表明,企业销售额中用于出口的比重、出口到发达国家的比重越大,企业对技能员工的需求和雇佣就越少。此实证结果可能说明,中国式劳动力市场错配是由过度参与全球分工体系导致的,过度贸易自由化导致劳动力市场困境。但这并非简单意味减少企业国际贸易、拓展国内市场就可以有效增加技能员工需求、解决高校毕业生就业难问题,促进经济发展方式由供给推动向需求拉动转变,促使企业更多以消费者需求为导向才是治本之策。     

商业信贷、融资约束与我国中小企业融资行为——基于江苏省制造业企业的问卷观测和实证分析

与商业信贷在我国中小企业中的作用与地位相比,相关理论和实证研究在国内尤显滞后.作者在对江苏省制造业中小企业问卷调查和计量分析基础上,从微观行为层面揭示了商业信贷在我国中小企业融资行为中的行为模式和运作机理.研究发现,基于企业间商业信用的商业信贷相对发达国家使用不足,是我国中小企业融资难的首因;我国中小企业的自身产业特性和技术能力,决定了其在交易市场上的弱势地位,进而决定了其2/3商业信贷净借出者身份;商业信贷中应收款和应付款普遍的"期限错配"特征,形成在宏观紧缩政策冲击下"银行信贷渠道"和"商业信贷渠道"交互作用机制下的资金链风险.     

Minorities’ Fields of Expertise in Economics and Employment Demand in These Fields

Efforts by public and private institutions to increase the number of minorities participating in graduate economics programs has contributed to a growing supply of Ph. D. trained minority economists. However, minorities are still under-represented as faculty members in economics departments. This presidential address explores whether the concentration of minorities in a few fields of specialization creates a demand-supply mismatch for these individuals.

The Case for Stabilizing China＇s Exchange Rate： Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion

China＇s financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving （trade） surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead, foreign currency claims （largely US dollars） build up within domestic financial institutions. Second, economists, both American and Chinese, mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued RMB. To placate the USA, the result was a gradual and predictable appreciation of the RMB against the dollar of 6 percent or more per year from July 2005 to July 2008. Together with the fall in US interest rates since mid-2007, this one- way bet in the foreign exchanges markets not only attracted hot money inflows but inhibited private capital outflows from financing China＇ s huge trade surplus. Therefore, the People＇s Bank of China had to intervene heavily to prevent the RMB from ratcheting upwards, and so became the country＇s sole international financial intermediary as official exchange reserves exploded Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable, and a higher RMB would not reduce China＇ s trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal RMB/USD rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. However, for any newly reset RMB/USD rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign ＂China bashing＂ to get the RMB up must end. Then the stage would be set for fiscal expansion to both stimulate the economy and reduce its trade surplus.     

Effective Repair in Survey Interviews

In standardized survey interviews with closed-ended questions it quite often occurs that respondents do something else than mentioning their choice from the set of response categories presented together with the question. In these cases their initial response is inadequate and interviewers have to initiate repair activities. By analyzing 804 question–answer sequences, stemming from parts of a survey with elderly people (N=201), we found that 322 (41%) of the initial responses were inadequate. In 74% of these 332 sequences the interviewers made an attempt at repair. Of all repair attempts, 75% were performed correctly, that is, in a nondirective way. Most of the repair attempts (86%) result in an adequate final response of the respondent. The result of the repair activities by the interviewers is that the number of sequences with an adequate response increased from 472 to 688, thus an increase of about 45%. There does not exist ‘one best way’ of repairing. The most important thing is that some repair initiative has to be taken by the interviewer and that the repair is done in a nondirective way.     

审计关系错配、盈余质量与整合审计收费

以2012—2015年沪深主板A股执行整合审计的上市公司为研究样本，基于整合审计背景探讨审计关系错配与整合审计收费，研究发现大所对小规模客户给予整合审计收费折扣；小所对大规模客户给予整合审计收费折扣。进一步研究发现，基于财务报表审计与内部控制审计的知识溢出效应及联动机制，执行整合审计有助于审计师识别公司管理层的盈余管理行为。