Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

关于新一轮国土规划性质及其理论体系建设的思考

从新时期国土规划的性质及地位出发,运用多学科综合研究国土规划的理论体系建设问题,在此基础上运用层次分析法探讨国土规划的编制思路,最后提出未来国土规划应着力解决的重点。     

Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

Simulation driven inferences for multiply imputed longitudinal datasets*

In this article, we demonstrate by simulations that rich imputation models for incomplete longitudinal datasets produce more calibrated estimates in terms of reduced bias and higher coverage rates without duly deflating the efficiency. We argue that the use of supplementary variables that are thought to be potential causes or correlates of missingness or outcomes in the imputation process may lead to better inferential results in comparison to simpler imputation models. The liberal use of these variables is recommended as opposed to the conservative strategy.     

Endogenous Timing in a Mixed Oligopoly with Foreign Competitors: the Linear Demand Case

We introduce foreign private firms into the model of Pal (1998) and investigate the impact of the introduction of foreign private firms on the endogenous timing in a mixed oligopoly in the linear demand case. We find that the public firm chooses to be a follower of all domestic private firms and that the public firm chooses not to be a leader of all foreign private firms, which is in contrast to Matsumura (2003).     

动态项目型新产品开发组织模式研究

产品开发组织是新产品开发系统的组织保证。根据多产品多层次并行的产品开发过程,讨论建立了动态项目型新产品开发组织。为了顺利实现产品开发,在产品层、子阶段层和设计层并行;在动态项目型产品开发组织中,又讨论了组建产品策划团队、产品开发管理团队和产品开发技术团队等内容,以确保相应的新产品开发战略的实现。     

关于基本经济制度的三点探索

党的十六大重申社会主义初级阶段的基本经济制度,不仅再次肯定公有制为主体,并且把多种所有制经济包括私营经济也纳入,是对传统理论的一大突破。这是从现阶段的实际出发,有着多样的现实条件。强调两个"毫不动摇",澄清了不同看法,其结果很可能形成混合经济居大的格局:宏观上是多种所有制经济并存,微观上是产权多元化的股份制公司为典型。坚持和完善基本经济制度,有一系列的对策,除深化国有、集体企业改革和鼓励、支持、引导非公有制经济发展外,令人想起毛泽东曾经讲过的四句话:"公私兼顾、劳资两利、城乡互助、内外交流"。     

教育产业及其发展的公共经济学分析

本文从公共经济学的视角探讨了我国教育产业及其发展的相关问题。首先，明确提出现代教育产业是一种混合产业，兼有公共经济与民间经济双重性质，中国现阶段必须将教育当做混合产业来发展，才有利于“科教兴国”战略的实施。其次，在明确现阶段应当以混合产业方式发展中国教育事业的基础上提出了我国应制定和实施的教育投入和管理的政策。     

我国实行金融混业经营的分析

本文从国内金融业在此问题上的实践探索出发,借鉴外国的成熟经验,分析了引发金融混业经营潮流的宏观和微观两个方面的诱因。在此基础上从实现金融机构控制风险、稳健发展和拓宽利润来源、提高竞争实力等方面论证了我国目前探索金融混业经营的现实意义。并就管理模式、组织结构调整、加强内部风险控制能力等重点、难点问题进行了分析。     

基于时间约束的多源多品种随机配送系统模型

在基于时间竞争的随机需求环境下,配送系统设计除了使系统总费用的期望值最小外,还要考虑系统稳定性和服务水平等方面的要求。在说明了建模的假设条件后,建立了考虑随机需求和时间约束的多源配送系统随机模型。通过等价变换,将随机模型转化为确定性等价问题,从而方便了问题的求解。