Exploring the mismatch between credit ratings and loss-given-default: A credit risk approach

It is commonly observed that high grade loans with better ratings are often associated with low recoveries if they default (i.e. with relatively high loss-given-default (LGD)). To address the mismatch problem, this paper proposes a credit risk approach by minimizing LGD for higher rated loans as a risk-rating matching standard in the sense that the decreasing LGD from creditors’ perspective is associated with higher credit rating for the borrower. This standard forces customers’ credit rating of each grade to be optimally determined in correspondence to its LGD, which means the LGD of high grade loans tends to be low. The approach is then tested using three credit datasets from China, i.e. credit data from 2044 farmers, 2157 small private businesses and 3111 SMEs. The empirical results show that the proposed approach indeed guides the way to solve the mismatch phenomenon between credit ratings and LGDs in the existing credit rating literature. By optimally determining credit ratings, the findings derived from this paper help provide a valuable reference for bankers, and bond investors to manage their credit risk.     

Extendible stock loan

In this paper, the model of extendible stock loan with forbearance is proposed. The loan is extendible, so as to prevent immediate losses or to prevent subsequent price drop; while the forbearance is granted only when the pledged share’s value is above threshold, so as to mitigate the risk-taking behavior induced by the extension. The non-synchronization of the liquidation of insolvent stock loans also alleviates the downward leverage spiral in a market downturn. Numerical analysis shows that fair extendible stock loan rates increase with the forbearance level as well as extension period, and loan rates are quite sensitive to the change of asset volatility and debt ratio. For lenders waiving the interest rates during extension period, their burden grows with extension rapidly when they grant looser forbearance and when asset volatility or loan-to-value is higher. Some suggestions are made accordingly. First, lenders offering uniform extendible loan rate can let borrowers choose between looser forbearance with shorter extension, or tighter forbearance with longer extension. Second, if the loan rate is priced fairly, lower margin requirement can only be accomplished with tighter forbearance. More looser forbearance worth higher rates.     

高校贷款融资风险评估与预警模型研究

创新高校贷款风险评估与预警模型,共筑财务系统"防火墙"。通过深入剖析高校债务风险凸显成因、影响路径及其特殊性,探索建立一套系统性强、涵盖面广、操作性强的风险评估与预警模型。并实证研究分析福建省A高校实施新校区项目所面临贷款规模、风险评估等问题,切合实际提出对策建议,为政府、高校和银行共同防范债务风险提供理论与实证依据,形成防范债务风险合力,促进高校健康、稳定、可持续发展。     

Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?

This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policy and to the role of US monetary and regulatory policy in the run up to the Subprime mortgage crisis. There are two main results. First, interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only available instrument, monetary policy faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. This trade off is both qualitative and quantitative in response to contractionary shocks, while it is only quantitative in response to positive shocks. We show that a second instrument, such as a Pigouvian tax on credit to households on the demand side of the market, is needed to restore efficiency in the economy when both frictions are at work.     

制度环境、审计意见与银行贷款——来自中国上市家族企业的经验证据

以中国上市家族企业为研究样本,结合企业所处的制度环境(法制环境、金融市场化水平、政府干预程度)进行实证检验,结果显示:上市家族企业所处地区的法制环境较好,或金融市场化水平较高,标准无保留审计意见具有一定的信号显示效应,部分抵减了其披露制约效应;在政府干预的环境下,不同类型的审计意见对企业获得银行贷款没有影响,在这种条件下,审计意见不是商业银行授信时要考虑的一个重要因素;审计意见对企业获得银行贷款的影响表现在短期贷款上,对长期贷款没有影响,即商业银行在长期贷款授信时不关注借款企业的审计意见类型。     

中国开展“以房养老”影响因素的实证分析

“以房养老”对解决我国面临的养老金支付有重要的意义。但是在实践中,我国老年群体参与的积极性并不高,本文在社会调查的基础上,进行了数据整理并且使用Logit模型进行了实证研究,得出影响中国老年群体参与其中的关键因素是传统习惯影响的结论,并且就此提出解决问题的设想。     

美国次贷危机的反思:最新国际文献综述

次贷危机发生后,国际上许多学者对此进行了反思。美国次级抵押贷款市场恶化与崩溃的许多信号早在此前就能够观察得到,次贷违约及违约的可能性存在多种决定因素;次贷危机并不特殊,其实是历次危机的重现;对于如何治理这次金融危机以及防范类似危机的发生,许多学者提出了独到见解。     

浅析如何改进我国商业银行信用风险管理方法

本文以商业银行信用风险管理为切入点,对我国信用风险管理的现状和问题进行探讨。文章介绍了我国商业银行目前使用的两种信用风险管理方法——客户信用评级法和贷款风险分类法,分析其存在的问题,并对完善我国商业银行信用风险管理提出了对策建议。     

市场化进程、环境信息披露与绿色信贷

本文基于中国资本市场的经验数据,并考虑了产权性质和市场化程度差异的影响,研究了我国商业银行贷款决策与环境信息披露的关系。结果发现,环保企业能获取更优惠的银行信贷,即绿色信贷是客观存在的,但其效果仅表现在环境信息披露不过度及市场化进程高的地区的情形下。上述研究发现对于构建和完善我国商业银行的绿色信贷机制建设,实现其可持续发展具有重要意义。     

房地产抵押价值评估中被动高估风险的成因分析

2010年以来,中国人民银行和银监会多次提示各家商业银行关注资产泡沫上涨等原因造成的贷款系统性风险,一再收紧银根并加强对存量贷款的风险管理。本文剖析了房地产抵押贷款评估中三个关键概念的混淆,指出这是造成被动高估风险的主要成因。建议重新审视现有抵押评估技术准则,以非公开市场基准下的抵押价值代替市场价值,并更多地考虑成本法和收益法的应用,以防止上述风险在新增房地产抵押贷款中的产生和扩散。