The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

高速公路路面改建工程沥青路面早期水损坏原因分析

沥青路面早期的水损害是沥青路面早期损坏的一种主要形式。本文通过大量的现场调查及室内试验,得出沥青路面早期水损坏的主要原因是路面空隙率过大、集料粉尘含量超标、路面油类污染。     

Oil Crisis,Market Reforms,and Human Welfare： An Econometric Analysis of the Australian Economy

As an active trader in international crude oil and petroleum product markets, Australia＇s human welfare is affected by oil crisis and contagion from the perspectives of economic growth, income inequality, and environmental sustainability. This paper investigates the impacts of oil price shocks upon Australia＇s gross domestic product （GDP） growth, Gini coefficients, and carbon dioxide emissions per capita from 1970 to 2012 with yearly frequency. Hypotheses concerning whether Australia＇s economic immunity against oil crisis is affected after the deregulation of oil market and whether endogenous oil price shocks account for more variations in human welfare than exogenous oil price shocks are tested. The methodologies include a theoretic model and a series of econometric tests. For the short-run dynamics, oil price is integrated into the model both linearly and non-linearly. Oil price shocks are categorized into exogenous and endogenous shocks. The conclusions are that inflated oil prices exert mainly non-linear negative impacts upon human welfare indicators and exogenous shocks induce endogenous shocks through labor price, Consumer Price Index （CPI）, interest rate, and exchange rate. For the long-run equilibrium, non-linear shocks＇ effects decay more slowly than linear shocks and the impacts of endogenous shocks last longer than that of exogenous shocks. Finally, oil market policies are evaluated and proposed.     

浅析稠油集输工艺优化改进

胜采一矿热采管理区掺水接转站主要承担着管理区稠油的接收和转输,掺水泵、外输泵和加热炉等关键设备的运行状况直接影响着热采管理区的原油上产工作。本文从掺水压力、掺水温度及掺水水质等技术指标入手,通过影响因素分析、集输工艺改进措施等方面的阐述,为稠油热采做一番有益的探讨。     

波音737NG飞机燃油系统故障和可靠性数据分析

本篇论文主要针对飞机在运行过程中出现的典型燃油系统故障进行综合分析和评估其故障部件的可靠性,在排故过程中对出现故障的可能性进行一个综合的分析,最终发现问题所在,并对其可靠性数据进行分析总结,便于在燃油系统中工作的运用。     

基于DEA的油料供应标准效果评价

首先,介绍了DEA评价模型的基本特点和评价步骤,建立了油料供应标准效果评价指标体系,而后利用DEA法对油料供应标准效果进行评价．并分析了DEA评价法的优缺点。     

基于启发式算法的成品油配送计划研究

通过对成品油配送计划特点的研究与分析，建立了成品油配送计划编制的数学模型；并设计了模型求解方案；通过对实验结果的分析，证明本文设计的算法快速、有效、稳定。     

重视油罐清洗工作的安全管理

介绍了储油罐沉积物3种清洗方法的适用范围、操作步骤以及在作业过程中应采取的安全措施,从而实现油罐的安全清洗。     

The relationship between agricultural commodity prices,crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis

This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices, US dollar exchange rates and 30 selected international agricultural prices and five international fertilizer prices in a panel framework. The study uses panel VAR methods and Granger causality tests on panel data sets of agricultural commodity prices (as well as specific agricultural commodity sub-groups) and fertilizer prices with monthly observations of the period from June 1983 to June 2013. The empirical results of the present study indicate that crude oil prices as well as US dollar exchange rates affect international agricultural commodity and fertilizer prices. Furthermore, contrary to the findings of several studies in the literature, the present study supports bidirectional panel causality effects between crude oil prices and international agricultural prices as well as between US exchange rates and international agricultural prices.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.