山秋油(Anaphalis margaritacea L)挥发成分的研究

山秋油用GC/MS分析鉴定67个成分,占全部精油的97％以上,其中未见文献报道玫瑰呋喃Rosefuran(51.66％)、环氧玫瑰呋喃Rosefuran epoxide(20.07％)为精油的主要化学成分。     

南海油气资源开发研究--基于石油安全的视角

石油是不可再生的重要能源资源,在经济和社会发展中具有不可替代的重要作用。随着我国经济的快速发展和世界油价的不断攀升,石油供需矛盾日益突出,石油安全面临着严峻挑战。在陆地油气资源日渐枯竭的背景下,开发海洋油气资源已成为人类的必然选择。在我国四大海区中南海不仅海域面积辽阔,而且油气资源蕴藏丰富,开发潜力巨大,开发南海资源,对保障我国能源安全和维护国家海洋权利具有重要的战略意义。加快南海开发步伐,不仅需要国家从战略层面制定中长期规划、加大开发力度,而且要提高自主创新能力,在深海勘探、生产和运输等关键技术领域实现突破;还要妥善处理好与周边国家的关系,在致力于最终解决南海争议的同时,探讨共同开发的有效机制。     

电改环境下油气管道企业用电成本管控研究

电力体制改革为油气管道企业用电成本管控提供了政策支持。在梳理电力改革政策的基础上,简要介绍了适用于油气管道企业的新电力政策,详细分析了我国油气管道企业存在的基本电费偏高、力调电费偏高、用电类型不合理、用电管理有待完善等用电现状及其根本原因。在上述分析的基础上,提出了选取合适的用电类别、选择合理的电费计费方式降低基本电费、提高功率因数降低力调电费、积极利用直购电政策、健全用电成本管控激励和考核机制等对策建议,以期为油气管道企业用电成本管控提供参考借鉴。     

Assessing the Reliability of Self‐reported Income Information in Informal Small Business Lending through a Bogus Pipeline Experiment

Coping with asymmetric information plays a major role in successful small business lending. Our purpose is to determine if small business applicants report their income information correctly when requesting a loan. We use a randomised controlled trial bogus pipeline experiment, established during a typical cash‐flow analysis of a bank for small businesses in the Philippines. The bogus pipeline approach is commonly applied in social science and aims to increase the rate of truth telling by informing participants that answers will be verified by a lie detector. The experimental data, which include 243 observations of credit clients that are mainly from the agricultural and food value chain, served to identify asymmetric information. Additionally, debtors’ repayment behaviour for approved loans was observed by the bank. Our results indicate that loan applicants of the treatment group report lower incomes, an effect which is most pronounced in lower income quantile. Our analyses also reveal higher loan delinquencies in the control group.     

Alternatives to local content requirements in resource-rich countries

This paper discusses whether and to what extent resource-rich developing countries should introduce local content policies, i.e. requirements to include local inputs in petroleum extraction activities of multinational corporations. We argue that local content needs to be seen as a public expenditure question, since local content requirements increase multinational costs, and hence reduce the taxes which can be extracted from these companies. This implies that there are opportunity costs in imposing local content requirements, since the forgone taxes can be used in others ways which could potentially do more to improve development prospects. Moreover, past experiences of resource-rich developing countries suggest that local content policies can exacerbate key problems of patronage and rent-seeking which resource rents generate, increasing the chance that the resource wealth will prevent rather than help development. These arguments suggest that an optimal local content policy in the context of flawed institutions is a more limited one than those typically pursued by developing countries with recently discovered petroleum reserves. Using qualitative data from Tanzania, a country with recent discoveries of substantial natural gas deposits, we analyze why local content tends to become such a central issue in debates and policy processes, despite its potentially problematic aspects.     

美国购油策略分析及对中国的启示

美国页岩油革命改变了美国原油贸易格局,使得美国进口原油品质趋于重质化,且地域来源趋于集中化。本文通过挖掘页岩油革命后美国原油进口策略转变的内在原因,提出美国国内页岩油需求与对加拿大原油进口之间存在互补效应,而与对欧佩克原油进口之间存在替代效应,并通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了美国页岩油需求和对各国原油进口的互动关系。本文的研究结果对中国的页岩油战略和中美原油贸易关系均有重要的政策启示。     

Crude oil price forecasting based on internet concern using an extreme learning machine

The growing internet concern (IC) over the crude oil market and related events influences market trading, thus creating further instability within the oil market itself. We propose a modeling framework for analyzing the effects of IC on the oil market and for predicting the price volatility of crude oil’s futures market. This novel approach decomposes the original time series into intrinsic modes at different time scales using bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD). The relationship between the oil price volatility and IC at an individual frequency is investigated. By utilizing decomposed intrinsic modes as specified characteristics, we also construct extreme learning machine (ELM) models with variant forecasting schemes. The experimental results illustrate that ELM models that incorporate intrinsic modes and IC outperform the baseline ELM and other benchmarks at distinct horizons. Having the power to improve the accuracy of baseline models, internet searching is a practical way of quantifying investor attention, which can help to predict short-run price fluctuations in the oil market.     

餐饮废油的回收利用研究进展

综述了餐饮废油在制备生物柴油、化工原料、饲料、混凝土制品脱模剂等领域中的应用及研究进展．并对其发展前景进行了展望。     

一种新型的微颗粒示踪剂及其在致密油藏中的应用

目前应用于油气田的示踪剂为水溶性示踪剂或者是气体示踪剂.经过多年的研究,开发了一种新类型的微颗粒固体示踪剂,并在长庆油田致密油藏中成功施工,标志着从实验成功走向了矿场.固体示踪剂在油气田开发中的应用前景广阔,尤其对致密油藏井间裂缝开度的定量描述具有指导意义.     

人民币汇率对国际原油定价的影响和机制

本文基于动态条件相关混频数据抽样模型,研究人民币汇率收益率与国际原油收益率的相关性.结果表明:人民币收益率与国际原油收益率存在一定程度负相关关系,但负相关程度不高;中国原油进口量和制造业采购经理指数上升能提升人民币和原油收益率的负相关程度,面额效应的作用机制存在;国际期货市场投机活跃程度增强能提升人民币和原油收益率的负...