国际石油现货价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动的影响

现有文献认为国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响显著,而且国际油价对我国通货膨胀存在显著的单向Granger因果关系。从定性分析来看,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,因此定性分析的结论是模棱两可的;从基于Almon PDL模型的经验分析来看,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生显著影响的结论,因此可以得出国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀影响并不很显著,但存在微弱影响的结论。     

经济政策不确定性对原油市场收益影响的分位关系研究

构建分位数分位数回归模型,依据1987年6月至2020年10月数据,考量经济政策不确定性对原油市场收益的异质性影响.结果表明:经济政策不确定性对原油市场收益在大多数分位点具有抑制效应,且这种影响在原油市场低迷时更加明显.在三类细分经济政策不确定性冲击中,货币政策不确定性和贸易政策不确定性对原油收益的影响在原油市场繁荣时占主导地位,而原油市场处于低迷状态时对财政政策不确定性的变化更加敏感.此外,经济政策不确定性对原油市场收益的影响程度在金融危机爆发后明显增强.鉴此,原油市场利益相关者在金融危机期间应对经济政策不确定的变化应更加谨慎.     

Does the social security fund help non-financial enterprises to transform from the virtual to the real?

At its 19th National Congress, the Communist Party of China vowed to “strengthen the financial sector’s ability to serve the real economy.” However, many studies provide evidence of the opposite trend, a problematic “transition from the real to the virtual,” among Chinese enterprises. Meanwhile, the investment efficiency of China’s Social Security Fund (SSF), a public fund, attracts much attention. In this context, we use A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2018 to study the relationship between holding by the SSF and enterprise financialization. We find that SSF holding significantly inhibits financialization and that this effect is non-linear. Mechanism analysis indicates that SSF holding suppresses enterprises’ financialization mainly by improving their governance. Moreover, SSF holding more strongly inhibits small-scale (vs. large-scale), state-owned (vs. non-state-owned), and non-eastern (vs. eastern) enterprises in China. Furthermore, SSF holding can alleviate corporate value impairment caused by financialization. The conclusions enrich theoretical research and provide empirical evidence that may help regulatory authorities to guide investment by enterprises and prevent financial risks.     

普惠型医疗保险发展:实践困境与优化方向

近年来,普惠型医疗保险成为多层次医疗保障体系发展的一大热点。文章首先介绍了中国普惠型医疗保险的发展现状及主要特点,其次通过对国内部分保险公司线上及线下调研,发现当前普惠型医疗保险发展面临配套法律法规有待健全、市场认可度普遍偏低、可持续经营能力不强、保险效果低水平重复、相关主体联动不足等困境。进一步分析美国、英国、德国、新加坡相关经验,提出具体的优化路径:以优化顶层设计为立足点,提高保险规制水平;以强化市场环境建设为切入点,提升市场认可度;以优化运行模式为突破点,激发保险生命力;以设计差异化产品为关键点,强化保险增补性;以建立联通机制为动力点,提高相关主体协同度。     

关于当前社会保险重大问题的研究

覆盖城乡的社会保障制度体系的基本建立,是我国改革开放以来经济社会发展取得的重大成就,但距离制度的完善还任重道远。本文指出当前社保制度改革中还存在诸如不同制度保障水平差距较大、基金支付压力大、基金统筹层次低、缴费负担重等重大问题,在对问题成因认真分析的基础上,提出今后改革的方向是以增强公平性、适应流动性、保证可持续性为重点,并提出完善基本养老保险制度模式、加快提高社会保险统筹层次、鼓励发展补充性养老保险和医疗保险、提高基金投资效率、将财政投入作为养老保险基金的稳定筹资来源、取消基本医疗保险最高支付限额等具体政策建议。     

成都市城乡统筹双元对接养老保障模式研究

推进社会保障城乡统筹发展将是我国社会保障制度建设的重大内容。基于对成都市城乡统筹社会养老保障制度改革实践的调研,阐示城乡统筹双元对接养老保障模式的制度特点,总结经验,揭示问题,寻求解决途径,对于在全国构建城乡统筹的社会养老保障制度具有重要的启示意义。     

Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market

The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.     

湖北失地农民社会保障问题探析——基于宜昌、随州、十堰三地的调研数据

摘要：近些年,湖北省提出打造中部崛起重要战略支点的目标,工业化、城镇化迅速推进。而作为九省通衢的湖北大量承接广东等沿海地区“腾笼换鸟”转移的劳动密集型产业。在上述内外因素催生之下,湖北省出现了一波土地征用的高潮期并伴随大量失地农民的出现。本文基于对宜昌、随州、十堰三市失地农民生活状况的一次调研结果,梳理了湖北失地农民补偿安置和社会保障方面的问题,对造成目前失地农民保障不力的原因进行了分析,并提出完善失地农民社会保障制度的一些政策建议。     

对进一步完善我国城市居民最低生活保障制度的思考

城市居民最低生活保障制度是城市社会保障体系中重要组成部分,是保障城市居民基本生活的最后一道保障线。目前我国城市最低生活保障制度存在低保资金投入严重不足、低保人员家庭收入难以核实等问题。中央应加大对地方低保资金的投入力度,健全低保工作机制,以进一步完善城市居民最低生活保障制度。     

Multi-dimensional role of trust in Internet banking adoption

Trust has been identified as the key to e-commerce because it is crucial wherever uncertainty and interdependence exist. The strong association between a high level of trust and the banking sector has not yet been fully translated in the electronic world. The aim of this article is to develop and validate a multi-dimensional model of trust for Internet banking. The data are collected through 441 Internet banking users of Halifax Bank of Scotland. Findings suggest that trust and perceived risk are direct antecedents of intention, and trust is a multi-dimensional construct with three antecedents: perceived trustworthiness, perceived security, and perceived privacy.