香奈儿品牌形象对消费者购买意愿的影响分析

中国消费者为现阶段全球最大的奢侈品消费群体。自香奈儿进入中国市场以来,因其高贵、优雅、简约的设计风格受到中产阶级以上女性消费群体的欢迎和喜爱。在奢侈品行业中,品牌形象作为企业重要的无形资产,成为了品牌竞争的另一领域。基于上述背景,论文以“香奈儿品牌形象对消费者购买意愿的影响分析”为选题,以贝尔模型为研究基础,使用问卷调查法获取数据,运用SPSS 19.0统计软件对数据进行处理分析,并结合消费者行为学相关理论,研究品牌形象的不同变量对于消费者购买行为产生的影响。     

中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力——基于传统IS-LM模型的实证分析

文章通过借助传统IS-LM模型和比较静态分析方法对中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力进行了实证分析,得出:(1)财政政策对经济波动的整体平滑能力较低,平均只有6.35%,财政政策的平滑能力在经济波动的不同状态之间存在明显差异;(2)财政政策工具之间的平滑能力存在较大差异,其中财政购买性支出能平滑掉经济初始冲击的11.48%,而财政转移性支出和收入政策整体上反而使经济波动上升近3%;(3)内生性检验表明,中国只有相机性支出政策与经济波动之间存在显著的双向因果关系,不仅如此,相机性支出政策的内外时滞都较短。文章结论的政策含义是,提高中国财政政策稳定效果的关键在于提高政策工具的有效性与相互之间的协同效应,不仅如此,对经济高涨时期政府财政行为进行有效约束也至关重要。     

Respondent direct experience and contingent willingness to pay for new commodities: a switching endogenous interval regression analysis

Most environmental economists argue that direct experience with the good being valuated, or with similar goods, is a precondition for providing valid willingness to pay (WTP) responses to contingent valuation questions. Two questions are posed in this article. The first is whether previous use experience of a resource (Séné nature reserve) similar to that being valuated (future nature reserves) and located in the same geographical area (Gulf of Morbihan) impacts on WTP. The second is whether accounting for the endogeneity of direct experience matters in the estimation of WTP. We find that respondents who have not experienced the Séné nature reserve provide value estimates that are statistically comparable to that of respondents who have experienced it. Our assumption is that respondents have acquired sufficient and adequate experience of future nature reserves from the questionnaire that experience obtained by experiencing the Séné nature reserve was not necessary for making a valid value formulation. Hence, aggregation of WTP estimates to obtain a total valuation of the future nature reserves is reasonable over the full target population. In addition, our results show that direct experience is endogenously determined; but controlling for the endogeneity has a marginal effect on WTP estimates.     

建设用地扩张对经济持续增长能力影响

首先从索罗增长模型出发分析表示经济持续增长能力的关键指标,其次通过1998—2008年中国省际面板数据回归分析建设用地规模对相关关键指标影响,以推出建设用地扩张对经济持续增长能力影响。结果表明:①索罗增长模型中单位资本产出水平是考量经济持续增长能力的重要指标,其决定经济增长率与增长空间;②面板计量结果中1998—2008年间中国建设用地数量对单位资本产出水平有显著负影响,说明期间建设用地扩张减小经济增长率与增长空间。研究认为,在经济转型期中国应严控建设用地扩张,以减小经济增长对土地资源依赖程度,进而促进技术进步,倒逼经济增长方式转变。     

社区参与型旅游产品开发的"IDPC"模式研究--以非民族旅游地为例

旅游本就是社会交往的一种形式,文化的交融和情感的沟通贯穿于旅游活动的始终.为了吸引旅游者的注意力,旅游供给者们曾经考虑了太多的有形产品.本文则是从旅游的非物质化开发层面入手,探讨社区参与型旅游产品的开发问题.在对这一产品进行基本界定的基础上,本文提出了其开发意义,着重对其开发模式的研究,提出了旅游开发要"形神兼备",借助旅游的社会属性来丰富旅游地的旅游供给.     

一种项目采购模式的博弈分析

本文试图用经济学理论 (主要是博弈与信息经济学的理论 )来分析目前工程项目建设中采用的一种工程设备、材料的采购模式。文章首先提出这种模式的内容与特征 ,然后就制度内各参与方 (主要为业主、承包商、供货商 )之间的博弈进行分析 ,分不完全信息博弈、完全信息博弈两种情况来分析这种采购制度下达到的均衡。     

Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model

Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.     

The Effect of the Interaction between Price and Time Preference on Cigarette Consumption among Pregnant Women

In this study, I explore smoking behavior among pregnant U.S. women using the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The key aspect of this study is the availability of smoking participation data before and during pregnancy. I consider the probabilities of smoking cessation while pregnant as the outcome. I find that pregnant women who smoke are less responsive to price changes when they are more future-oriented. Women who are more present-oriented are more likely to smoke and consume more cigarettes given that they smoke more than those who are future-oriented. Moreover, those who discount the future more heavily are more sensitive to the money price of cigarettes than those who are more future-oriented. I focus on the role of time preference and the interaction between time preference and price in determining these outcomes.     

基于精算方法的信用风险的量化

比较了保险风险和信贷风险的基本特征后可以发现，精算模型的方法和思路可以用来描述商业银行的信用风险。可以通过定性分析和定量分析相结合的方式，推导出适用的信用风险量化管理模型。在数据整理和检验的基础上，借鉴寿险精算的生命模型思想可以建立“正常-损失”模型，进而实现对贷款损失率的解释；借鉴非寿险准备金测算的方法，可以采用链梯法测算商业银行短期贷款业务应提取的贷款坏账准备金数额。在上述方法的基础上，可以将“正常-损失”模型与链梯法结合起来，测算长期贷款的坏账准备金。     

Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use rolling window and time-varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and Granger causality based on a vector error correction model (VECM). When applied to South Africa for the period 1960–2011, the findings are as follows: results from the full-sample VECM indicate that there is no Granger causality between tourism receipts and GDP, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space representation show that tourism receipts have positive-predictive content for GDP for the entire period, with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990. Full-sample time-varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causality between tourism receipts and GDP.