Estimation of tail‐related risk measures in the Indian stock market: An extreme value approach

The purpose of the study is to estimate tail-related risk measures using extreme value theory (EVT) in the Indian stock market. The study employs a two stage approach of conditional EVT originally proposed by McNeil and Frey (2000) to estimate dynamic Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES). The dynamic risk measures have been estimated for different percentiles for negative and positive returns. The estimates of risk measures computed under different quantile levels exhibit strong stability across a range of the selected thresholds, implying the accuracy and reliability of the estimated quantile based risk measures.     

如何做好援外工程设计工作

设计图纸的优劣直接影响现场施工的顺利进行。本文分别对设计工作包括的方案设计、初步设计、施工图设计,图纸交底等环节对工程的影响进行分析,结合现场施工配合,论述作为一个设计者,如何做好援外工程的设计工作。     

基于变参PI算法的单片机过零控制系统

文章阐述了一种可变参数的 PI 算法,基于该算法用单片机对燃油炉炉温进行过零控制。文章给出了单片机控制的接口电路及其程序框图。     

The fragility of a discipline when a model has monopoly status

We consider the consequences of a scientific literature with only one model of an important phenomenon. The falsification of the model would mean falsification of the science. Scientists who would prefer not to have their discipline falsified will be tempted to find ad hoc explanations to excuse the failure. To test this hypothesis we propose a study of the economic forecasts of the comparative Soviet and American growth rates in the years before a public choice model of central planning was a viable alternative to the public interest model. JEL Code A11, B23 Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the University of Manitoba Economics Department Retreat in October 2005 and at the Center for Study of Public Choice Wednesday Seminar in November 2005. We thank the participants for their suggestions. All the remaining errors are our responsibility.     

谐波电流火灾事故的预防对策

我国经济建设的快速发展和用电设备大量增加给电气线路的安全运行带来隐患。谐波电流在三相供电系统中的中性线上会引起电流的叠加效应。从而造成中性线上电流增大,发热量增多,进而引发建筑电气火灾事故的发生。     

Cooperatives, regulation and competition in Norwegian agriculture

This article analyses the efficiency of current market regulations and market structure in Norwegian agriculture. Based on their potential to coordinate farmers' supplies, large marketing cooperatives are assigned a market regulation role. However, market prices frequently tend to fall below target prices, spurring costly additional market regulations. This is not necessarily a result of inefficient coordination by the cooperative. Using a mixed market model, the study shows that over production may be explained by the competition between marketing cooperatives and investor-owned wholesalers (IOW), typically weakening the cooperatives' ability to coordinate market supply. This conclusion is robust over a variety of IOW contracts. However, to what extent competition is to blame, depends on the target price level and the contract structure of the IOW. Moreover, it is shown that current market interventions to remove excess supplies may induce further incentives to increase production.     

On Social Statement Spaces

In this fundamental draft we shall introduce the concept of social propositional spaces as a general notion of social science and in particular language, logic and methodology. This should help us bridge an old gap between extension and cognition, or said in more specific words, between space as conceived in mathematics or physics and space as is brought in by social location, by the meaning of predicates, their explanation and logic. ¹ We shall not rely on the idea of factor analysis where some “main components” are fit into the data. Because the notion of euclidean normalization and orthogonality, in this context, is a bit artificial. We first show how combinatorial manifolds of statements can be represented in finite vector spaces over the Galois field F₂. This space which we denote as logic statement space can be spanned by generators of alternating codes. In this way the old concepts of truth tables and interaction attributes can be linked to informatics and in particular code theory and geometry. Extending the logic statement space onto a real vector space by mapping units of the finite rings onto units of the real rings we obtain logistic statement spaces. It turns out that vectors in logistic statement spaces represent cross-tables of logits connected with logistic regression analysis. As a completion of the theory we show that the logit is the first derivative of entropy with respect to probability.     

评大西广《关于钓鱼岛主权之争的思考》

钓鱼岛领土争议在中日两国引发起民族主义的惊天骇浪,两国知识界也被卷进这场国权之争,双方学者各执一词,剑拔弩张。但是,在日本,也能够听到一些有历史洞见力和远见卓识的学者,站在公正的立场上所发表的具有良知和良识的声音。京都大学名誉教授、庆应义塾大学教授,日本著名经济外交研究专家大西广就是其中的代表人物。今年8月27日,他在由京都大学经济学研究科东亚经济研究中心主办的东亚经济研究通讯《京大东亚中心新闻简报（第432号）》上发表了署名文章《关于钓鱼岛主权之争的思考》。在该文中,作者客观公允地表达了自己的主张。以下,笔者就其主要观点略作评述,以飨读者。     

我国经济运行中的“过度竞争”现象分析

本文利用局部均衡分析法,建立包括消费者剩余和生产者剩余的社会福利动态模型,并通过对模型中总剩余的分析,得出“强化竞争并不总是可以提高社会福利和经济效率”的结论。在此基础上,本文从不同视角探讨了我国经济运行中出现的“过度竞争”现象,提出树立“竞争与合作”的思维观念和强调规模经济效益,是避免“过度竞争”实现有效竞争的必然选择。     

The effect of external audits of internal control over financial reporting on financial reporting for clients of Big 4, Second-tier,and small audit firms

The external audit of internal control over financial reporting (ICFR) is a very expensive and contentious aspect of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). Larger public firms were first required to file a management report on and have an external audit of ICFR in 2004. Smaller public firms were first required to file a management report on ICFR in 2007 but are exempt from the audit requirement. Whereas most related prior research investigates the combined effect of management and auditor reports on financial reporting, this study examines the distinct effect of auditor reports on reporting quality. For companies audited by small auditors, we find evidence that financial reporting quality improves with an auditor report on ICFR. We find no evidence that auditor ICFR reports improve reporting quality for clients of Big 4 or Second-tier audit firms. Our study adds to the debate on the applicability of SOX Section 404 to smaller firms.