Sequential information arrival in the Finnish stock index derivatives markets

This paper investigates the hypothesis of sequential information arrival in the Finnish stock index futures and options markets. With no short selling restrictions in the derivatives markets, no causality relationships between returns and trading volume are observed. However, by using the so-called call-put signal, based on call and put volumes, causality between returns and volume is found supporting the hypothesis of sequential information arrival. In addition, it is discovered that the increased volume in stock index options relative to index futures has significantly increased their importance in the intermarket price discovery process.     

Arbitrage violations and implied valuations: the option market

The ideas presented in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily reflect the views of the National bank of Canada. Both authors thank the National Bank of Canada and the SSHRC of Canada for their help. Thanks are also due to Professor Y. Tian for his comments, and for participating, together with students of the Financial Engineering program at York University, in the data preparation and the execution of the Matlab programs. In this paper, we propose a necessary and sufficient condition for bid and ask prices of European options to be free of arbitrage, and derive from it an efficient numerical methodology to determine its satisfaction by a given set of prices. If the bid and ask prices satisfy the no-arbitrage (NA) condition, our methodology produces a vector of NA prices that lie between the bid and ask prices. Otherwise, our methodology generates a vector of arbitrage-free prices that is as close as possible, in some sense, to the bid–ask strip. The arbitrage-free prices detected by our methodology render the commonly used practice of using mid-points and then ‘cleaning’ arbitrage from them as unnecessary. Moreover, a vector of ‘cleaned’ prices obtained from mid-point prices may be outside the bid–ask spread even in an arbitrage-free market and, hence, in this case will not be representative of the current market. A new procedure of estimating implied valuation operators is also suggested here. This procedure is rooted in the economic properties of put and call prices and is based on Phillips and Taylor's approximation of a convex function. This approach is superior to common estimation techniques in that it produces an analytical expression for the implied valuation operator and is not data intensive as some other studies. Empirical findings for the new methods are documented and their economic implications are discussed.     

Linear beta pricing with inefficient benchmarks in a given factor structure*

ABSTRACT

We show the equivalence between the zero-beta version of a multi-factor arbitrage pricing model and a linear pricing model utilizing undiversified inefficient benchmarks in a given factor structure. The resulting linear model is a two-beta model, with one beta related to the inefficient benchmark and another adjusting for its inefficiency. This linear model shows that there are only two distinctive and computable sources of risk, affecting security expected returns, despite the existence of several risk factors. In a short empirical example we demonstrate that the model can be employed to provide guidance and allow researchers to test for the validity of their selection of the underlying risk factors driving variations in security returns.     

Pricing exotic options in a path integral approach

In the framework of the Black–Scholes–Merton model of financial derivatives, a path integral approach to option pricing is presented. A general formula to price European path-dependent options on multidimensional assets is obtained and implemented by means of various flexible and efficient algorithms. As an example, we detail the cases of Asian, barrier knock out, reverse cliquet and basket call options, evaluating prices and Greeks. The numerical results are compared with those obtained with other procedures used in quantitative finance and found to be in good agreement. In particular, when pricing at-the-money and out-of-the-money options, the path integral approach exhibits competitive performances.     

An Investigation on Information Transmission Between Stocks of Far Eastern Countries and Their American Depositary Receipts

Domestic stocks and their American depositary receipts (ADRs) are essentially twin securities listed in the home country and United States, respectively. Accounting for exchange rates and market friction, their prices should move in tandem if international markets are efficient. In reality, however, their returns are close but sometimes differ dramatically. This study hypothesizes that changes in trading volume and macro events can lead investors between two equity markets to generate heterogeneous expectations or interpretations, causing returns on one security to deviate from those on the other. The results show that changes in past domestic volume do affect current ADR returns, implying that volume contains additional information not in prices. It is also found that important macro events, especially bad news, trigger significant differences in returns between domestic shares and their ADRs. These results support our argument that heterogeneous expectations prolong price information transmission between two equity markets.     

A dynamic linear model to forecast hotel registrations in Puerto Rico using Google Trends data

Recently, studies have used search query volume (SQV) data to forecast a given process of interest. However, Google Trends SQV data comes from a periodic sample of queries. As a result, Google Trends data is different every week. We propose a Dynamic Linear Model that treats SQV data as a representation of an unobservable process. We apply our model to forecast the number of hotel nonresident registrations in Puerto Rico using SQV data downloaded in 11 different occasions. The model provides better inference on the association between the number of hotel nonresident registrations and Google Trends SQV than using Google Trends data retrieved only on one occasion. Furthermore, our model results in more realistic prediction intervals of forecasts. However, compared to simpler models we only find evidence of better performance for our model when making forecasts on a horizon of over 6 months.     

QD软件、FRATAR软件在青岛至荣成城际铁路客运量预测中的应用

研究目的:青荣城际铁路地处我国山东半岛地区,连通青岛、烟台、威海三市,路网作用辐射整个山东半岛沿海地区及华北、中南地区。在运用QD软件分析现状客流出行特征,同时利用FRATAR软件进行客运量合理预测。研究结果:现状既有铁路客流主要为短途及少部分长途客流,青荣城际铁路主要承担城市间及新增的长途客流。     

Stock Returns in Thinly Traded Markets

We examine the share price behavior of thinly traded NASDAQ National Market System stocks during periods when financial markets are open but the individual stocks do not trade. The absence of trade allows us to isolate the effect of nontrading from that of market closure. We find that nontrading stocks have negative mean returns and lower variances regardless of whether markets are open or closed. Two-day returns that include one nontrading day have a mean daily return of -0.226% compared to +0.164% for two-day returns over consecutive trading days. Two-day returns that include one nontrading day have only 3.8% higher variance than one-day returns. We conclude that the relation between transaction arrival, mean returns, and volatility depends on whether a stock is trading and not simply on whether the market is open.     

沪深股市指数效应的行为金融学解释

指数效应是证券市场的一个异常现象。利用事件分析方法，以沪深300指数和上证180指数调整的样本股为研究对象，检验个股在调整前后的异常收益率和异常交易量，得出指数效应显著存在的结论，用行为金融理论解释其成因，同时提出指数效应的应用、保护中小投资者和完善监管等方面的建议。     

海峡两岸贸易流量和流向的引力模型分析

本文运用扩展后的贸易引力模型检验了祖国大陆和台湾地区之间的贸易流量和流向的决定,并以此为依据具体考量了内地各省市与台湾地区的贸易联系程度。结果显示:内地各省市的经济规模和人均收入水平、空间距离、台商投资和特殊的经济协作关系是决定内地各省市与台湾地区贸易流量的主要因素。应积极强化有利因素,弱化不利因素来挖掘海峡两岸的贸易潜力。