The Underpricing and Excess Returns of Initial Public Offerings in Taiwan Based on Noisy Trading: A Stochastic Frontier Model

Initial public offerings (IPOs) are typically offered at prices lower than the transaction price in the early aftermarket. With a stochastic frontier model, we measured the fair offer price of an IPO and then the deliberate IPO underpricing and the market misvaluation based on the estimated fair offer price. Our results show that IPOs are deliberately underpriced. The extent of noisy trading leading to significantly higher market transaction prices explains the excess IPO returns. We conclude that initial IPO returns result primarily from the noisy trading activities instead of the deliberate IPO underpricing.     

Valuation of commodity derivatives in a new multi-factor model

This paper extends existing commodity valuation models to allow for stochastic volatility and simultaneous jumps in the spot price and spot volatility. Closed-form valuation formulas for forwards, futures, futures options, geometric Asian options and commodity-linked bonds are obtained using the Heston (1993) and Bakshi and Madan (2000) methodology. Stochastic volatility and jumps do not affect the futures price at a given point in time. However, numerical examples indicate that they play important roles in pricing options on futures. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

试论建筑施工企业施工现场安全生产和文明施工的保证体系及其运行机制的建立和完善

章阐述了建筑施工企业建立施工现场安全生产和明施工保证体系的需要和条件。论述了体系的指导思想、原则和基本构架，管理要素与运行功能以及相应的职责权限，以及体系及其运行机制的有效运行和进一步完善的四项工作重点。     

Planning Your Own Debt

We model the Danish market for mortgage backed securities with a two-factor interest rate model and use a stochastic programming approach to analyse how an individual home-owner should initially compose and subsequently readjust his mortgage in an optimal way. Results show that the 'rules of thumb' used by financial institutions are reasonable, although best suited for more aggressive mortgagors, for whom the delivery option is of some value. More risk-averse investors should also re-adjust frequently, but use more diversified portfolios. Results are insensitive to whether a one- or two-factor model is used, provided the former is suitably calibrated.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

Time diversification and security preferences: A stochastic dominance analysis

We use stochastic dominance to test whether investor should prefer riskier securities as the investment horizon lengthens. Return distributions for stocks, bonds, and U.S. Treasury bills are generated for holding periods of one to 25 years by simulation. For each holding period, stochastic dominance tests are run to establish preferences between the alternative security classes. Contrary to previous mean-variance based studies, we find no evidence that high-risk securities (stocks) dominate low-risk securities (bonds, Treasury bills) as the investment horizon lengthens. However, we do find that corporate bonds systematically dominate government bonds.     

火电厂生产经营风险控制管理

对火电厂目前面临的主要生产经营风险及其特点进行了介绍,在此基础上,论述了进行风险控制的必要性,提出了火电厂生产经营风险控制的总体对策和具体应对方法。     

Optimal portfolio choice in the bond market

We consider the Merton problem of optimal portfolio choice when the traded instruments are the set of zero-coupon bonds. Working within a Markovian Heath–Jarrow–Morton model of the interest rate term structure driven by an infinite-dimensional Wiener process, we give sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an optimal trading strategy. When there is uniqueness, we provide a characterization of the optimal portfolio as a sum of mutual funds. Furthermore, we show that a Gauss–Markov random field model proposed by Kennedy [Math. Financ. 4, 247–258(1994)] can be treated in this framework, and explicitly calculate the optimal portfolio. We show that the optimal portfolio in this case can be identified with the discontinuities of a certain function of the market parameters.     

强化质量管理促进螺杆泵采油技术规模应用

从螺杆泵采油技术在油田应用中的实际出发．阐述了该项技术在从试验向规模化推广应用过程中，以强化全面质量管理为基点．重视螺杆泵采油技术应用中各个环节的质量控制，从组织机构的建立、管理制度的制定、人员素质的提高、配套技术的完善等方面。强化管理和质量控制，使这项试验技术成功转型为常规技术，并得以规模化应用。阐明了全面质量管理在螺杆泵采油技术应用中发挥的重要作用。     

国际国内甲醇市场分析及预测

介绍了近年来国际国内甲醇市场供需、生产、贸易、价格等变化特点，并对未来市场走向进行了分析预测。