采油厂能耗质量监督与管理

根据油田能源计量和监督管理的实际，在采油厂范围内全面实施了以建章立制网络化管理为主线的能耗质量监督与管理。主要实施了随机监督和定期监督，以及与之配套的奖罚制度相结合的管理办法，以提高监督水平为目的的技术业务培训和加强现场能耗质量监督运行过程监督，完善配备能耗监测仪器等项措施。     

油气田开发项目平均投资利润率和利税率的确定

行业平均投资利润率和行业平均投资利税率是投资者进行投资机会选择的主要参考依据之一，是投资者对其投资项目收益的最低期望要求。从投资者角度来讲，恰当地确定平均投资利润率和行业平均投资利税率是一个相当重要而又比较棘手的问题。文章主要讨论了如何确定油气田勘探开发项目经济评价中平均投资利润率和行业平均投资利税率的一种简单方法。     

丙烯酸酯橡胶生产、应用与市场

随着我国汽车工业快速发展,对丙烯酸酯的需求日益增加.文章评述了丙烯酸酯橡胶的生产、市场需求和应用,重点介绍了丙烯酸酯橡胶的共混改性和加工技术,分析现状并提出我国丙烯酸酯工业发展的建议.     

戊烷的生产与市场分析

戊烷原料主要来源于炼油厂。戊烷产品用途广泛，可用作发泡剂、溶剂、化工原料等。目前国内高纯度异戊烷、正戊烷、环戊烷及混合戊烷发泡剂生产厂有36家，生产能力150kt／a左右．我国戊烷的年消费量近66kt，其中，EPS（发泡聚苯乙烯）戊烷发泡剂的消费量约占总消费量的45％；聚氨酯的发泡剂消费戊烷约占总消费量的50％；线性低密度聚乙烯戊烷载溶剂消费量约占总消费量的5％。国内戊烷供大于求，但高档产品供应不足。所以，“十五”期间新建装置一定要采用国内较为先进的工艺技术，采用较廉价的原料气，确保产品质量，最大限度的降低生产成本，同时加强市场开发，提高产品的市场竞争力。     

Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data

Inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes. The associated uncertainty provides a direct gauge of how well‐anchored the inflation expectations are. We construct a model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations obtained from financial markets. This new model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty is more accurately estimated and can provide valuable information for policymakers. Using U.S. data, we find significant changes in inflation expectations uncertainty during the Great Recession.     

Machine learning in individual claims reserving

Machine learning techniques make it feasible to calculate claims reserves on individual claims data. This paper illustrates how these techniques can be used by providing an explicit example in individual claims reserving.     

Automatic balancing mechanisms for notional defined contribution accounts in the presence of uncertainty

The notional defined contribution model combines pay-as-you-go financing and a defined contribution pension formula. This paper aims to demonstrate the extent to which liquidity and solvency indicators are affected by fluctuations in economic and demographic conditions and to explore the introduction of an automatic balancing mechanism (ABM) into the pension scheme. We demonstrate that the introduction of an ABM reduces the volatility of the buffer fund and that, in most cases, the automatic mechanism that re-establishes solvency produces the highest value of the risk-adjusted notional factor.     

Expected exponential utility maximization of insurers with a Linear Gaussian stochastic factor model

In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal investment by an insurer. The wealth of the insurer is described by a Cramér–Lundberg process. The insurer invests in a market consisting of a bank account and m risky assets. The mean returns and volatilities of the risky assets depend linearly on economic factors that are formulated as the solutions of linear stochastic differential equations. Moreover, the insurer preferences are exponential. With this setting, a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation that is derived via a dynamic programming approach has an explicit solution found by solving the matrix Riccati equation. Hence, the optimal strategy can be constructed explicitly. Finally, we present some numerical results related to the value function and the ruin probability using the optimal strategy.     

“营改增”影响地方政府税收努力研究

基于随机前沿分析法（SFA）测算2011-2015年我国地方政府税收努力程度,并运用双重差分法考察“营改增”对地方征税行为的影响。研究发现：“营改增”将地方税（营业税）变为共享税（增值税）,显著降低了地方政府税收努力程度;改革对税收努力的冲击受经济发展水平、转移支付额度和税收返还的影响,获取转移支付收入和税收返还越多的地区税收努力下降速度越快。后“营改增”时期,如何提高税收效率,缓解地方财政收入对转移支付和债务收入的依赖性,是理顺中央和地方财税关系,完善财税收入体系的重要问题。     

保险公司市场风险经济资本度量研究

经济资本(EC)是在既定期间和置信水平下,公司根据实际承担的风险计算的用以吸收非预期损失的资本额度,目前市场风险是整体经济资本测算体系中最为突出的风险.根据当前保险运营与资产投资的比例特征,同时对资产端与负债端建立市场风险投资模型,采用嵌套随机模拟方法进行两阶段情景生成,度量未来一年内不同风险测度下的市场风险经济资本需求,并对比不同情景数量下的测算稳定性.结果证明:随着内部或外部情景模拟次数的增加,市场风险经济资本测算结果对于极端风险的预测趋于稳定,在内外部情景数量乘积相同时运算时间基本一致.当内外部两阶段情景生成参数差异较大的情形下,应适当增加情景生成数量,以确保对于极端风险预测的准确性.