Understanding conflicting perspectives in event planning and management using Q method

There is a need to better understand the interests of actors in the planning and management of major events. The diversity of actor perspectives about an event creates a wicked problem set that event organisers and public officials find difficult to understand, let alone address. This paper focuses on problem identification as one stage in the event planning and management process. It explores how problem structuring can contribute to more effective planning and management of actors' interests. The value of Q methodology is explored through a case study of the Australian World Rally Championship. Four perspectives are identified in the problem structuring process: the Skeptics, the Materialists, the Middle-grounders and the Supporters. The findings demonstrate that Q methodology is effective in identifying the depth and breadth of different problem perspectives, providing insights into the importance of different perspectives, and can be used reflexively to anticipate and manage potential conflict.     

DSGE pileups

The sampling distribution of estimators for DSGE structural parameters tends to be non-normal and/or pile up on the boundary of the theoretically admissible parameter space. This calls into question both the reliability of asymptotic approximations and the presumption of correct specification. This paper seeks to develop a conceptual framework for understanding how these phenomena arise, and to provide pragmatic methods for dealing with them in practice. The results are presented in three examples and a medium scale DSGE model.     

Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

Framing the usefulness of eHRM in talent management: A case study of talent identification in a professional services firm

As talent management evolves from intuitive to evidence‐based decision‐making, the role of electronic Human Resource Management (eHRM) to gather, distribute, and analyze data becomes more critical. However, surprisingly few academic studies investigate the role of technology in talent management. Drawing on a qualitative case study of talent management in a large professional services firm, this paper critically examines how eHRM information technologies are framed as useful within talent identification discourses. The findings reveal two distinct but interrelated sets of processes employed to identify talent and suggest that the perceived usefulness and centrality of eHRM are influenced by how stakeholders shape their understanding of effective talent management. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of perceived service quality on repurchase intentions and subjective well-being of Chinese tourists: The mediating role of relationship quality

The current study provides and tests an integrated model that examines two relationship quality constructs (overall customer satisfaction, customer-company identification) as mediating variables between Chinese tourists' lodging service quality perceptions and two outcomes (repurchase intentions, subjective well-being). The results of a study with domestic Chinese hotel guests (n = 451) provide support for the proposed model. Specifically, the results indicate that overall customer satisfaction fully mediates the relationship between perceived service quality and repurchase intentions and subjective well-being, respectively. Customer-company identification partially mediates the relationship between perceived service quality and repurchase intentions and subjective wellbeing, respectively. We provide empirical validation that customers do, indeed, identify with hospitality providers, and this, in-turn, provides positive consequences for both the service provider (i.e., repurchase intentions) and the customer (i.e., subjective well-being). Managerial implications are provided, limitations noted, and future research directions suggested.     

Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism

We evaluate the short term forecasting performance of methods that systematically incorporate high frequency information via covariates. Our study provides a thorough introduction of these methods to the tourism literature. We highlight the distinguishing features and limitations of each tool and evaluate their forecasting performance in two tourism-specific applications. The first uses monthly indicators to predict quarterly tourist arrivals to Hawaii; the second predicts quarterly labor income in the accommodations and food services sector. Our results indicate that compared to the exclusive use of low frequency aggregates, including timely intra-period data in the forecasting process results in significant gains in predictive accuracy. Anticipating growing popularity of these techniques among empirical analysts, we present practical implementation guidelines to facilitate their adoption.     

汽车保险精算定价模型研究综述

汽车保险定价模型在非寿险精算领域内占有重要地位,本文对车险定价模型一百多年来的研究进展作了综述性的回顾。首先,本文介绍了车险定价模型的先验估费方法;其次着重介绍了时齐的后验估费方法,以及时变的先验后验相结合的精算模型;最后提出了车险定价模型的未来发展方向。     

大型交叉安全风险识别与评估

大型交叉施工具有建筑结构复杂、设备集中、人员密度大、环境密闭等特点,一旦结构发生安全事故,后果严重,而风险识别和评估可以结合施工的实际情况,对其中的各种危险源进行分类,并进行定量与定性评价。文章从风险特点及类型、风险分析依据及步骤、风险评估流程,最后得出风险识别与评估结论:工程项目风险识别与评估应是一个经常性反复循环的活动,是一个动态的过程。