Investment decision-making under economic policy uncertainty

It is widely established that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects investment decisions and performance, yet research in this area has overlooked the direct property investment market. This article seeks to rectify this and proposes a multistage multilevel analytical framework to offer new insights and a richness of findings. Using a news-based measure of EPU in the United Kingdom, and controlling for economic conditions, a national-level analysis reveals some evidence of Granger-Causality between EPU and total returns, indicating that pricing is responsive to uncertainty. These findings suggest that EPU is an important risk factor for direct property investments, with pricing implications. Differences in data and performance measure are important, however, with income returns unresponsive. A micro-level investigation begins to reveal some of the asset-pricing decisions underpinning the national results, indicating investors’ concerns for income streams are consistently high, regardless of varying EPU. Pricing can also cause changes in EPU, such as in the retail and industrial markets (increasingly linked through logistics) reflecting sector-specific stakeholder groups and newsworthy issues. This evidence highlights how important it is for policy-makers to understand the complex and bi-directional relationship, that indecision can undermine investment confidence and cause investment market volatility, in turn raising EPU.     

State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

抵押物处置与农房抵押贷款困境：基于演化博弈的分析

研究目的:分析农民住房财产权抵押(简称农房抵押)贷款困境的主要原因以及抵押物处置对农房抵押贷款行为的影响机理。研究方法:演化博弈论。研究结果:农房抵押贷款发展面临困境的关键在于金融机构惜贷,而抵押物处置难是激发金融机构惜贷的重要原因,但是降低抵押物处置难度只是推动农房抵押贷款发展的必要而非充分条件。研究结论:要促进农房抵押贷款发展,除了必须降低抵押物处置难度外,还需要构建完善的农房抵押贷款制度体系。     

新制度经济学视角下的中国农地制度变迁：回顾与展望

研究目的:分析总结中国农地制度变迁的路径特征、决定条件和影响因素,并展望进一步研究方向。研究方法:文献分析法。研究结果:(1)改革开放以来的中国农地制度变迁呈现出一个较清晰的路径,即改革始终沿着市场取向、明晰产权、稳定地权的方向演进;(2)农地使用权制度改革的成功源于诱致性变迁与强制性变迁的结合,即弹性的中央政策制定、渐进式的地方实施以及具有学习效应的农户认知三者的有机互动,并体现出制度变迁的"共生演化"特征及其蕴含的"适应性效率";(3)新制度经济学是解释中国经济改革和农地制度变迁的有效工具,然而由于经典的新制度经济学本质上的静态性以及国家理论的缺乏,难以对现实世界的各类制度变迁给出一般化的解释。研究结论:基于经典的新制度经济学,进一步整合行为经济学、机制设计理论、演化博弈论等理论工具,超越"强制性—诱致性变迁"二分法,构建一个真正动态的制度变迁模型是一个重要研究方向。     

2017年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2018年展望 ——土地管理领域分报告

研究目的：归纳分析2017年国内外土地管理领域的研究进展,展望研究趋势。研究方法：文献统计法。研究结果：2017年国内外在土地制度改革、土地权属与登记以及土地政策法律三个方面有着共同研究焦点。国外研究关注了土地管理与管制问题,国内研究主要围绕农村“三块地”改革、不动产登记政策效应和配套法律存在的问题、农村土地确权政策绩效和存在的问题、农村土地“三权分置”的法律关系、土地财政与土地违法和土地腐败等之间的关系、土地用途管制与耕地保护以及土地管理学科研究等方面。研究结论：2017年土地管理领域研究仍基于实践导向的探索、总结与凝练,围绕农村土地制度改革路径、土地管理体制机制与政策效应研究有所发展。2018年将重点关注农村土地制度三项改革试点成效和修法研究、农村土地“三权分置”的政策绩效和法律关系、租购并举及集体土地建设租赁住房的体制机制、土地管理供给侧结构性改革、自然资源资产管理体制和耕地保护政策与生态补偿机制研究等。     

2016年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2017年展望——土地管理领域分报告

研究目的：归纳分析2016年国内外土地管理领域的研究进展,展望研究趋势。研究方法：文献统计法。研究结果：2016年土地管理领域国外研究侧重于土地制度改革及其所产生的政治、经济、生态效应,土地法律与政策的作用效力及效应,土地权属与登记等方面;国内研究则更多关注农村土地制度改革、不动产登记成果整合应用、自然资源资产管理理论及成果应用、土地市场监管与土地财政影响、“三权分置”法律关系界定、集体土地所有权立法及集体成员资格界定、土地用途管制与耕地保护制度等相关问题。研究结论：2016年土地管理领域在不动产登记与自然资源资产管理、土地市场监管与调控以及土地用途管制方面的研究有所进展;2017年将重点关注土地管理制度改革、不动产统一登记制度的推进与完善、自然资源资产管理体制建设、土地及房地产市场调控,乃至农村土地市场的管理与调控、土地法律体系改革等方面。     

职业延迟满足对员工过劳的影响研究——职业成长机会的调节作用

目前,员工过劳问题在我国企业发展中日益凸显,需要予以重视和解决。基于个体与组织互动角度,通过对338名企业员工的问卷调查分析职业延迟满足和职业成长机会对员工过劳的影响,并检验职业成长机会对职业延迟满足影响员工过劳的调节作用,结果表明：职业延迟满足的两个维度（工作延迟满足和职业生涯延迟满足）均对员工过劳有显著正向影响,而职业成长机会对员工过劳有显著负向影响;职业成长机会对职业延迟满足影响员工过劳具有负向调节作用,即职业成长机会越大,职业延迟满足与员工过劳的正向关系越弱。因此,企业管理者应合理引导和帮助员工做好职业生涯规划,为员工提供合适的多元化发展通道,以有效预防和缓解员工过劳。     

Predicting uncertainty: the impact of risk measurement on value of real estate portfolios

This paper presents a theoretical framework for an assessment and valuation of real estate assets and funds, based on modern stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) models, which accurately captures the nature of related risks. We show that an accurate risk-adjusted valuation is particularly difficult for real estate investments, due to practical limits to diversification and difficulties in approximating total risk with systematic risk. We develop a risk assessment framework that includes idiosyncratic risk but focuses on insolvency risk related to a specific cash flow profile. We also present a methodology of rating this risk, using forecasts and simulations. We conclude that simulation techniques are a valuable tool in property risk assessment. Further, we show that cost of capital and value of assets depend on diversification of specific risks, investors can achieve in their portfolios.     

无居民海岛实物期权估价模式研究

我国无居民海岛的市场进程刚刚起步,海岛价值评估方法没有统一、规范的制度或标准性规定。本文根据无居民海岛使用权价值的期权特征,应用实物期权理论,估算海岛的期权价值,以突破原有传统估价方法在海岛市场化交易初期阶段无法适用的瓶颈。研究结果显示,分别运用布莱克—舒尔斯模型和二项树模型估算的海岛价值基本一致,相比而言,二项树模型能够反映各个时间节点的参数变化,更加直观和灵活。研究结论说明实物期权估价方法适用于无居民海岛使用权估价,估价结果能够全面反映现金流时间价值、未来不确定性以及柔性决策权共同创造的海岛整体价值,为无居民海岛价值评估提供了新思路。     

Entrepreneurial intention and startup preparation: A study among business students in Malaysia

Intention, as the starting point of pursuing self-employment and creating new ventures, is crucial before actually establishing a business enterprise. Entrepreneurship is understood to be an essential ingredient for enhancing a country's economic competitiveness, growth, and sustainability while confronting the escalating challenges of globalization, such as increasing unemployment. This study provides empirical evidence on the factors influencing entrepreneurial intention and startup preparations among university students in Malaysia. The findings provide scholars and academic policymakers with insights into the effectiveness of Malaysia's entrepreneurial education as designed and practiced by public universities. The Malaysian government should apply these findings to fortify existing policies and programs and formulate new ones to support graduate entrepreneurs, while universities and other higher education institutions should provide high-quality entrepreneurial courses and programs to young Malaysians to foster an inclination toward entrepreneurship.