MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.     

Households' Preferences and Exchange Rate Overshooting

Abstract

This paper uses a ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model to study the effect of a shock to Households' preferences on exchange rate dynamics. The special features of the model are that Households' preferences exhibit a ‘catching-up with the Joneses’ effect and that international financial markets are imperfectly integrated. Results of numerical simulations of the model demonstrate that these features imply that, in an otherwise standard ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model, a shock to Households' preferences can give rise to an overshooting of the exchange rate.     

Asymmetric Exchange Rates and Unofficial Exchange Rate Interventions: The Case of South Korea

Applying Milton Friedman's ‘plucking’ model of output fluctuations, we investigate the behavior of the Korean won/dollar exchange rate using a state-space model with Markov switching, which incorporates both symmetric and asymmetric shocks. We find that the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate rarely falls below its trend, but is plucked upward from time to time by transitory shocks. This asymmetry suggests that the monetary authority unofficially intervenes in the foreign exchange market to support its own target level from below. Further evidence from changes in reserve assets indirectly supports our finding.     

Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.     

区域流通中现金的结构决定逻辑——以滨州为例

本文根据对山东省滨州市样本调查和区域实证对比认为,区域流通中现金（M0）的总量可能取决于当地的经济资本总规模与人口数量问的比例关系等,但现金投放回笼的区域结构差异则决定于其投资与消费的结构占比。     

汇率弹性化下人民币汇率波动预测分析

本文选取影响人民币汇率波动的有关结构变量,分别通过线性MA模型和基于遗传算法改进的GABP神经网络模型,对人民币汇率波动进行模拟和预测。通过比较发现,汇率缺乏弹性时期,逐月MA模型的历史拟合和样本外预测效果最优;随着汇率改革的不断推进和汇率弹性化的增强,GABP神经网络模型在汇率波动的模拟和预测方面均有最优表现,故汇率波动预测模型应随汇率弹性及其波动特性不同因时制宜。同时结果表明,汇率弹性化能够加深汇率波动及其结构变量间的均衡关系,利率市场化改革应与汇率市场化改革协调推进。     

中央国库现金管理中标利率与Shibor关系研究——基于误差修正模型的实证分析

中央国库现金管理中标利率的出现丰富了货币市场利率体系。本文从经验分析出发,对中标利率与Shibor之间的关系进行了研究。经数据检验后构建误差修正模型（ECM）,结果发现,中标利率和Shibor之间存在一定的长期协整关系,在预期阶段Shibor更多地受自身波动的影响,在影响阶段Shibor对中标利率具有较强的参考意义。由此可见,中标利率在市场上的影响力尚不明显,而Shibor作为货币市场标杆已十分明确。     

人民币升值降低了中国的贸易顺差吗？——基于汇改后季度面板数据的实证研究

本文采用汇改后中国对6个主要经济区域的面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率升值的确导致了中国贸易收支的恶化,但是人民币实际有效汇率并不是影响我国贸易收支的唯一变量,中国的实际收入增加也会导致我国贸易收支恶化,中国实际GDP上升1％导致中国贸易顺差减少0．0835％;贸易伙伴国实际收入的增加则会改善我国贸易收支,贸易伙伴国GDP上升1％导致中国贸易顺差增加0．138％。     

提高库存设备完好率的方法

运用六西格玛管理方法,设立六西格玛管理绿带项目一“提高库存设备完好率”这一课题;运用DMAIC逐步改进的方法,解决设备管理过程中出现的维修质量问题。对设备整修、整修验收、存放整个设备管理过程进行细致分析,最终提高库存设备完好率。通过对影响库存设备完好率的各种因素及影响程度,进行充分的分析、论证,最终确定影响设备完好率的关键因素X,对关键X影响问题Y（设备完好率）的贡献率进行计算,并提出改进措施。详细介绍了运用六西格玛管理方法中几种分析工具解决绿带问题的全过程,并对主要影响因素的X贡献率进行计算,针对影响库存完好率的关键因素,提出了最终解决问题的方案。     

我国加工贸易的经济效应分析：基于外贸发展方式转变的视角

本文从外贸发展方式转变的视角出发,结合我国加工贸易从积极探索与鼓励发展阶段、逐步规范与快速发展阶段、加强管理与促进发展并重阶段、结构调整与转型升级阶段以及危机后加速转型阶段等阶段性特征,测算加工贸易对我国贸易增长的贡献率、加工贸易与ＧＤＰ增长的关系以及对就业的贡献。研究表明,加工贸易对我国贸易增长具有重要贡献,但贡献率从１９９９年开始出现逐步下降的趋势;加工贸易与ＧＤＰ增长呈弱相关关系,对ＧＤＰ增长的直接贡献不大,加工贸易对我国经济增长的贡献更多是长期和间接的。