电网工程建设预算编制与计算标准的跟踪分析系统开发应用

《电网工程建设预算编制与计算标准》（简称《预规》）是电网工程技经工作的基础标准,是在一定技术水平、经济水平下测定的,具有时间局限性,需要根据变化适时修订。由于修订工作量大,修订周期过长,在工程实际中暴露出标准滞后的问题。针对上述问题,基于大量实际工程决（结）算数据,研发了该标准的跟踪分析软件系统,选取了《预规》＂其他费用＂中的3类典型项目费用作为例证,判断＂其他费用＂中对应项目标准的适用性,旨在为适时提出修订《预规》的标准提供参考建议。     

电池储能技术在电力系统中的应用评价及发展建议

随着智能电网时代的到来,世界各国电力系统正在从传统型向现代型转变,而储能技术的应用将成为这场变革的重要环节。对新型储能电池的技术经济特性和发展应用现状进行了介绍,构建了电池储能技术综合评价指标体系,针对储能技术在不同领域的具体应用进行了综合评价,分析了新型储能技术的发展前景并提出了相关建议,以期为政府主管部门、能源电力企业、产业界及行业专家提供参考。     

Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and CI benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research.     

Quantiles as optimal point forecasts

Loss functions play a central role in the theory and practice of forecasting. If the loss function is quadratic, the mean of the predictive distribution is the unique optimal point predictor. If the loss is symmetric piecewise linear, any median is an optimal point forecast. Quantiles arise as optimal point forecasts under a general class of economically relevant loss functions, which nests the asymmetric piecewise linear loss, and which we refer to as generalized piecewise linear (GPL). The level of the quantile depends on a generic asymmetry parameter which reflects the possibly distinct costs of underprediction and overprediction. Conversely, a loss function for which quantiles are optimal point forecasts is necessarily GPL. We review characterizations of this type in the work of Thomson, Saerens and Komunjer, and relate to proper scoring rules, incentive-compatible compensation schemes and quantile regression. In the empirical part of the paper, the relevance of decision theoretic guidance in the transition from a predictive distribution to a point forecast is illustrated using the Bank of England’s density forecasts of United Kingdom inflation rates, and probabilistic predictions of wind energy resources in the Pacific Northwest.     

Scoring rules and survey density forecasts

This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England’s Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses recently made available to researchers by the Bank. The density forecasts are collected in histogram format, and the ranked probability score (RPS) is shown to have clear advantages over other scoring rules. Missing observations are a feature of forecast surveys, and we introduce an adjustment to the RPS, based on the Yates decomposition, to improve its comparative measurement of forecaster performance in the face of differential non-response. The new measure, denoted RPS*, is recommended to analysts of forecast surveys.     

城乡统筹发展评价体系的构建及应用

在城乡统筹发展进程中,对城乡统筹发展水平进行客观的评价有着非常重大的意义。最近十来年,针对统筹城乡的评价指标体系,已经有不少研究。许多地方政府已经在运用评价指标体系评估本地区的城乡统筹发展情况。从数量特征、指标体系、理想值的设定方式、权重的设置方式以及城乡统筹发展阶段划分五个方面对已有文献进行梳理和评论,并指出值得继续研究的新问题。     

基于DEA的物流公司绩效评价

鉴于传统绩效评价方法的局限性,运用数据包络分析（DEA）法,并以2008和2009年19家中国物流上市公司为样本进行实证研究,为各物流企业客观了解和评价自身物流竞争力和相对物流绩效水平提供参考。     

ISO 10668的内容、影响与应对之策

品牌竞争已经成为国际竞争的焦点,品牌价值评估是品牌竞争的重要手段。作为世界上第一部品牌价值评估的国际标准,ISO10668的颁布实施将成为该领域一个新的里程碑。文章介绍了ISO10668的框架和主要内容,分析了它对我国可能产生的影响,并提出在我国成立品牌价值测算标准化技术委员会等相关建议。     

化工行业循环经济评价指标体系建立及应用研究

化工产业是循环经济建设的重点,循环经济评价指标体系建设是一项重要的工作。在已有的研究成果基础上,建立可以量化评价的化工行业循环经济评价指标体系,运用层次分析法,给出该指标体系的权重,通过案例分析,验证了其合理性。