60年时代主题的重大变革——从“战争”到“和平”的大局统筹

统筹国际与国内两个大局，关乎国家在建设时期“中心任务”的抉择，是建国60年经验总结中不可回避的课题。在十一届三中全会之前与之后，对国际和国内两个大局的不同统筹观（即从“战争格局论”到“和平与发展论”；从“要准备打仗”到“集中力量摘经济建设”的巨大变革），对国际政治、尤其国内的建设格局以及台湾问题的处理方针都产生了极其重大的影响。抚今思昔，在改革大势下。我们全面肯定邓小平的全局统筹观；继往开来，在历史镜鉴中，不等于轻率地否定1978年改革以前毛泽东的大局统筹观。这是历史的否定之否定，是历史的辩证法。     

Eighteenth-Century Evolutionary Thought and its Relevance in the Age of Legislation

This essay revisits the evolutionist writingsof the eighteenth century to clarify their key ideas concerninglegal and social evolution and to assess their relevance in thepresent era of pervasive legislation. The discovery of the principleof the accumulation of design is traced to these writings andthe continuity of twentieth century spontaneous-order theoryand new institutional economics with this tradition is noted.While highlighting the contributions of other institutional theoriststo the elucidation of the role of purposive action in legal evolution,the author argues that input designing does not alter the fundamentalnature of legal emergence as postulated by the eighteenth centuryscholars. The essay supports the ideal of legal generality, freespeech, property and contractual freedom as normative implicationsof the evolutionary viewpoint.     

中国共产党人继承和发展了马克思主义人口理论

中国共产党人的人口思想是以三代中央领导集体为代表的中国共产党人把马思主义人口理论同中国社会主义建设事业的具体实践相结合的产物,是中国共产党集体智慧的结晶.从多个方面论述了中国共产党人人口思想对马克思主义人口理论的继承和发展.     

行为科学对经济社会发展的推动作用

行为科学作为管理科学的基础之一，它的发展，为科技教育和经济社会发展带来了新的推动。它研究需要动机理论和群体行为、领导行为及劳动的心理活动，这些都直接促进人力资源的管理和开发，推动社会主义现代化建设。     

Keynes,investment, unemployment and expectations

In Keynes’ General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the problem of high unemployment, despite a strong empirical association between investment and unemployment. We discuss the evolution of the ‘Keynesian’ model, and how in the process of domesticating the General Theory, the central relationship between unemployment and investment and the role of the state of confidence was bred out of the model. We then present some evidence of the centrality of investment and expectations to the long‐term evolution of unemployment in OECD countries. We also argue that recent results in finance, which find that individuals do not behave rationally and, moreover, that there may be no basis for rational calculation, provides support for Keynes’s notion that animal spirits play a central role in investment.     

从关联理论视角解读幽默言语的认知过程

关联理论作为解释人类交际的认知语用学理论,同样也适用于幽默言语的研究。幽默言语的认知过程遵循最佳关联原则,即从启动最大关联语境的第一阶段进入到寻找最佳关联语境的第二阶段。而幽默言语的幽默效应正是来自于最大关联与最佳关联之间意义的反差。     

中国电信行业互联互通问题的博弈分析

在分析我国电信行业互联互通现状的基础上,引入一个双寡头动态博弈模型,说明在垂直一体化的经营模式下,网络规模不对等的电信运营商之间实现互联互通是激励不相容的,由此提出相应的政策建议。     

FTPL-Perspective on Tradable Deficit Permits in the EMU

The Growth and Stability Pact restricts member states in their fiscal policy but also causes inflexibility in the pursuit of wide-ranging economic and social reforms. Tradable deficit permits allow more flexibility for individual member states and provide a stick for those who exceed the deficit limit but also a carrot to those who stay below it. But does the trade in deficit permits affect the monetary objectives of the European Central Bank (ECB)? We argue that from a perspective of fiscal theory of the price level, trade in deficit permits can lead to higher inflation depending on the growth rate and the debt/GDP ratio of the member states.     

基于委托代理的供应链质量管理激励策略

利用委托代理模型建立了供应链质量管理的激励模型，从购买商对供应商质量管理监管的角度出发，探讨了不同风险态度下最优激励合约的设计问题，求出了模型的最优解并进一步讨论其影响因素。最后，拓展分析了声誉激励的效果，为寻求有效的供应链质量管理提供理论依据。     

Karl Pearson and the Scandinavian School of Statistics

The relationship between Karl Pearson and the Scandinavian statisticians was more of a competitive than a collaborative nature. We describe the leading statisticians and stochasticists of the Scandinavian school, and relate some of their work to the work of Pearson.