高科技产业新产品定价策略研究——基于系统动力学

新产品的开发对于高科技产业来说日趋重要，需要不断的努力和巨大的市场意识，系统的价格监测对于分割市场和合理配置资源具有很重要的意义，企业应该认真考虑以确定最优定价策略。本文在不同竞争环境下建立了不同定价策略对企业综合影响的系统动力学模型，在对模型模拟分析的基础上，研究了不同定价策略对企业的影响。结果表明，高科技产业新产品采用撇脂定价策略相对于渗透定价策略具有更大的优越性，并根据企业实际的定价能力，适当地延长撇脂时间和增大撇脂价格可以带来更大的经济效益。     

Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries

The growth rates of wages, unemployment and output of a number of OECD countries have a strongly skewed distribution. In this paper we analyze to what extent downward wage rigidities can explain these empirical business cycle asymmetries. To this aim, we introduce asymmetric wage adjustment costs in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Increasing wages is less costly than cutting them. It follows that wages increase relatively fast and thus limit vacancy posting and employment creation, but they decline more slowly, leading to a strong reduction in vacancies and employment. The presence of downward wage rigidities strongly improves the fit of the model to the observed skewness of labor market variables and the relative length of expansions and contractions in the output and the employment cycles. The asymmetry also explains the differing transmission of positive and negative monetary policy shocks from wages to inflation.     

UNDERSTANDING THE FINANCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN A MULTI‐ECHELON SUPPLY CHAIN

This article is concerned with how supply chain strategies can mitigate the Bullwhip Effect and inflated inventories from the perspective of the central firm (typically a manufacturer) in the supply chain. We first outline a base case scenario with a validated system dynamics simulation model, using supply chain characteristics as reported by a real firm, in this case a Mexican electronics supplier to U.S. automobile assemblers. We find, surprisingly, that a lower Bullwhip Effect Index (BE) does not always lead to lower costs in the supply chain studied. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis suggests some interesting, counterintuitive results. The implications of these findings are further developed as we test how lead time reduction can also reduce the Bullwhip Effect in the simulated setting.     

How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences

The financial crisis showed, once again, that neglecting real estate booms can have disastrous consequences. In this paper, we spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified. Then, we offer insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom–bust episodes. These insights derive from econometric analysis, when possible, and case studies of country experiences. Broadly, booms financed through credit and involving leverage are more likely to warrant a policy response. In that context, macroprudential measures can be targeted more precisely to specific sources of risk, but they may prove ineffective because of circumvention. In that case, monetary policy may have to be used to lean against the wind.     

Market Power,Efficiency and the Dispersion of Systematic Risk

A number of studies have used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to integrate product market and financial theories of the firm. We reexamine the relationship between product market structure and systematic risk at the firm and industry level. We show that theory yields no testable implications at the firm level. We show, however, that there is a relationship between the intraindustry dispersion of systematic risk and industry concentration which depends on the causes and consequences of concentration. Estimates of the relationship between the intraindustry variance of and concentration for a 1987 cross-section of U.S. industries suggest that concentration allows larger firms to exercise market power.     

电子商务网络安全技术探讨

本文主要介绍了电子商务网络安全的概念,面临的威胁及数据加密技术,系统安全技术、防火墙技术。从而提供在实际应用中如何加强防范,提高网络安全性。     

基于核心竞争力的区域物流可持续性发展研究

本文认为,区域物流的可持续发展必须建立在明确区域核心竞争力的基础上,并为增强这种竞争力服务。对区域物流可持续发展的研究由两个系统及其相互关系构成。一是评价系统,二是现象系统。前者分析了影响区域物流竞争的四大因素,为构建区域物流核心竞争力提供参考;后者根据明确化了的问题以及所设定的区域物流可持续发展的目的或需要规划的课题,对与物流紧密相关的社会现象、经济现象和自然现象等进行调查与分析,并对必要的现象进行预测。理想的状况是二者的融合与促进。     

The Dynamics of Self-Esteem and Physical Self: Between Preservation and Adaptation

The aim of this study was to model and characterize the psychologicalprocesses that underlie the dynamics of global self-esteem and physicalself over time. Twice a day for 228 consecutive days, seven participantscompleted a short inventory (PSI-6, Ninot et al., 2001) measuring sixsubjective dimensions: global self-esteem, physical self-worth, physicalcondition, sport competence, physical strength, and attractive body.Each series was modeled by means of ARIMA procedures. The resultsshowed that a simple moving average model provided a satisfactoryaccount for the dynamics of all series. This model suggests that acombination of two opposite processes underlies the dynamics ofself-concept: preservation, which tends to restore the previousvalue after a disturbance, and adaptation, which tends to inflectthe series in the direction of the perturbation.     

A baseline model of industry evolution

The paper analyses some general dynamic properties of industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry.After a brief critical assessment of some significant drawbacks of recent contributions to modeling of stochastic industrial dynamics, we propose a novel analytical apparatus able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent technological heterogeneity, differential growth of individual firms and turnover. The basic model, we suggest, is indeed applicable with proper modifications to a large class of evolutionary processes, well beyond industrial dynamics.JEL Classification: L11, O30, C60Support to this research by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; the Fujitsu Research Institute for Advanced Information (FRI), Japan; the Italian National Research Council (CNR), the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR, prot. 2002132413 003) and the Free University of Bozen Bolzano, Italy, is gratefully acknowledged. Comments by Andrea Bassanini, Francesca Chiaromonte, Steven Klepper, Uwe Cantner, Drew Fudenberg and the anonymous referees helped in shaping the paper to its present form. Mariele Berté provided the computer simulations of the model. The usual caveats apply.Correspondence to: G. Dosi     

树立走入21世纪的高等教育质量观

高等教育迎接挑战,必须正视质量问题。这首先要树立走入21世纪的高等教育质量观,即:高等教育质量是共性化的质量、多样化与整体化的质量,以人为本的系统质量。