Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Future of Economic Growth for South Korea*

More than 80 percent of US growth between 1950 and 1993 can be attributed to transition dynamics (increases in R&D intensity and educational attainment), with less than 20 percent of growth deriving from population growth. Similarly, growth accounting shows that 80 percent of economic growth in Korea can be attributed to transition dynamics. However, the specific factors that have moved Korea far from its steady state are significantly different from the factors that have done so for the USA. In addition to the growth rates of the two countries, we also analyzed the (steady‐state) level of output per worker to determine where the Korean economy is headed relative to the USA. In 1960, Korea was characterized as poor (0.111) relative to its own steady state (0.765), and incomes were at 11.1 percent of those in the USA. Since then, however, Korea has been growing more rapidly than the USA. In our analysis, we also consider the extreme case where total factor productivity levels converge completely. Interestingly, in this case, the USA and Korea exhibit unconditional convergence similar to what is generally observed in the OECD. As the economy approaches the steady‐state income level, however, the growth rate of output per capita will decline.     

现代企业资源计划(ERP)应用研究

ERP是一种跨越多个企业、多种环境并具有统一的数据库、界面和特定应用功能的企业信息管理系统。本文认为,定制开发模式、分布式应用和体系化管理模式、以业务流程重组为基础构建的ERP模式是几种适合我国企业经营特点和发展需要的开发应用模式;我国企业要成功运用ERP,应转变经营观念,具备新的管理思想和经营理念;重视实施ERP过程中人的因素;选择适合的ERP软件;在实施ERP过程中及时评价实施效果。     

信息物理融合系统软件可信性演化动力学建模

信息物理融合系统(CPS)软件可信性建模是CPS可信软件开发过程中至关重要的一环,现有的形式化方法、软件验证技术并不适合对CPS软件可信性动态演化进行描述和分析。在深入分析CPS可信软件动态演化过程的基础上,结合非线性动力学的基本理论和方法,研究CPS软件可信性演化的动力学机制,对CPS软件在内外双重因素影响下的可信性演化过程进行建模,并分析其可信性演化规律,为CPS软件可信性研究提供了一种新手段。通过对一个工业控制领域中CPS软件的建模与分析,验证了该方法的可行性。     

高业绩企业群体中的弱企业效应研究——以2002—2006中国500强企业为样本的分析

企业绩效差异的主要影响因素来自产业层面还是企业层面一直是企业战略理论关注的基本问题。自从Schmalensee(1985)应用方差分析技术得出其效应分布结论以来,对此问题的研究一直延续至今。战略管理学者较一致的结论是企业层面因素即企业效应是影响企业业务绩效差异的主要因素。然而,本文所作的数据分析表明,在我国高业绩企业群中,企业因素并不是绩效总差的主要解释因素,其解释能力弱于产业因素,即使是在充分竞争领域也是如此。通过对一组反馈回路的考察,本文分析了在我国弱企业效应产生和持续的原因、条件,并据此提出了一种新的关于企业经营策略性质的分类方法。     

物流系统优化问题研究方法概述

结合物流系统的特点,分析了物流系统中存在的优化问题。并针对一些关键技术问题对近年来国内外有关文献进行梳理和研究。文章首先综述了物流系统中四类组合优化问题以及此类问题的传统确定性算法及智能优化算法,同时分析这些方法在处理不同的问题时各自的优缺点。最后对物流系统优化问题的研究方法及研究方向做了分析和展望。     

基于工作过程系统化的《Flash动画制作》课程开发

"中国有一千万人喜欢看FLASH,有七,八十万人喜欢做FLASH"这样的数字已经表明,一个有着大量需方和供方的市场已经形成了。只有课程内容设置与职业岗位能力要求相对应,才能为社会培养适销对路的符合市场需求的高级平面动画制作职业技术人才。本文借鉴德国职业教育先进思想,提出了基于工作过程系统化的《Flash动画制作》课程开发的理念、思路和实践等问题。