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31.
企业现金流转系统动态仿真研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文运用系统动力学方法分析了企业现金流转问题的基本特征。针对一特定民营企业建立了企业现金流转的系统动力模型,并在此基础上,设计四种仿真方案模拟了不同条件下企业现金流转的具体情况,以期为企业现金流以及企业的持续经营做一些有益的探索。 相似文献
32.
在分析顾客需求的非对称性和动态性的基础上,把产品的属性划分为必备、单向、吸引三类,结合客户需求变化、竞争产品策略和产品生命周期理论,为企业的产品创新提供了全新的视角: 相似文献
33.
干旱区土地利用结构调整的SD模型研究:以新疆吐鲁番市为例 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
土地利用结构的调整是我国目前土地利用总体规划的两大核心内容之一。我国干旱地区生态环境十分脆弱、稳定性差。土地沙漠化、盐碱化、草场退化等现象十分严重,本文以新疆吐鲁番市为例.分析了该市土地利用现状和存在的问题.运用系统动力学模型.建立了土地利用结构调整的动态模型,充当地制订中长期土地利用总体规划提供科学依据。 相似文献
34.
Forest resource extraction by local communities has been cited as a major impediment to the efficient management of protected forests. This paper develops a two sector dynamic model for farming and forest resource extraction by communities living in the forest periphery. The model assumes that land under forestry is constant and households allocate their time to farming and forestry. Comparative dynamic results suggest that higher prices for agriculture output, lower input prices, better knowledge of farming techniques and a lower discount rate may result in a higher equilibrium stock of forest resources. Tobit analysis with primary data collected from the Sinharaja forest in Sri Lanka provides supportive empirical evidence. 相似文献
35.
Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
A great deal of research has focused on the links between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates, and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state variables that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies that involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data. 相似文献
36.
In this paper, we estimate ARFIMA–FIGARCH models for the major exchange rates (against the US dollar) which have been subject to direct central bank interventions in the last decades. We show that the normality assumption is not adequate due to the occurrence of volatility outliers and its rejection is related to these interventions. Consequently, we rely on a normal mixture distribution that allows for endogenously determined jumps in the process governing the exchange rate dynamics. This distribution performs rather well and is found to be important for the estimation of the persistence of volatility shocks. Introducing a time-varying jump probability associated to central bank interventions, we find that the central bank interventions, conducted in either a coordinated or unilateral way, induce a jump in the process and tend to increase exchange rate volatility. 相似文献
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Calibrations of models related to life-cycle behavior of consumption and saving often invoke the important assumption of a unit root in individuals׳ labor-income process. We for the first time test this assumption using methods for univariate time series. Based on longitudinal register data from 1968 to 2005, we first estimate an autoregressive model for each individual using a method for approximately median-unbiased estimation. We then exploit the resulting distribution of the individual-specific estimates to draw inference about the presence of a unit root. Results indicate that earnings for the representative worker are governed by a process where shocks to earnings have moderate persistence and are both economically and statistically significantly different from having permanent effects. These results question the heavy use of unit-root processes for earnings. 相似文献
40.
《Economic Systems》2014,38(2):140-160
This paper tests the intra-market dynamics in a regional setting using country-specific international bonds differentiated only by maturity within individual markets in the Latin American region. We use the 2001 Argentine default as a natural experiment in this study to examine how intra-market dynamics evolved in the presence of a credit event in the region. This paper argues that emerging market instruments have a stronger tendency to tie up with instruments within markets rather than across markets as found in the literature. The long-run equilibrium relationships tend to be stronger across instruments within each market and generate economically insignificant portfolio adjustment weights. Strong interaction across instruments within markets in terms of first order dependencies has important implications for market participants, practitioners and policymakers. 相似文献