干旱区土地利用结构调整的SD模型研究：以新疆吐鲁番市为例

土地利用结构的调整是我国目前土地利用总体规划的两大核心内容之一。我国干旱地区生态环境十分脆弱、稳定性差。土地沙漠化、盐碱化、草场退化等现象十分严重，本文以新疆吐鲁番市为例．分析了该市土地利用现状和存在的问题．运用系统动力学模型．建立了土地利用结构调整的动态模型，充当地制订中长期土地利用总体规划提供科学依据。     

顾客价值理论研究概述

通过分析顾客价值理论研究的背景,总结顾客价值的不同定义、理论模型及其动态性的相关研究。通过对近几年国外研究新进展的分析,可对我国企业发展提供一些理论支持。     

基于系统动力学的物流系统研究

本文将系统动力学方法应用于物流运输这个复杂的系统当中,建立模型,对现实情况进行模拟,以期为物流企业提供定量的可持续发展预测分析,达到辅助企业科学决策的目的,引导物流企业沿着正确的方向发展壮大,提高物流企业生存竞争的能力,并进一步促进物流企业管理的科学化与现代化。     

粮食安全视角下粮食主产区耕地休耕规模及动态仿真研究

研究目的:以保障粮食安全为目标,构建粮食主产区休耕最大规模测算和仿真模型,仿真预测不同人口政策效应情景下最大休耕规模及休耕规模弹性边界,以期为保障中国休耕政策推行的科学性和合理性提供参考.研究方法:系统动力学模型.研究结果:(1)2007—2016年模拟期内,湖北省在兼顾区域粮食供给和保障国家粮食安全的同时,能够保有一定比例持续增长的弹性耕地资源,支撑国家"藏粮于地"战略的实施;(2)2017—2036年仿真期内,湖北省休耕最大规模和休耕规模弹性边界在人口增长保持不变和不断下降两种情景下总体保持扩张趋势,在人口增幅略微上升和大幅上升两种情景下呈现先缩小再扩大的态势;(3)在当前符合全面二孩政策目标人群规模庞大且妇女二孩生育意愿较强的情况下,全面二孩政策在中长期的粮食需求增加效应极有可能导致湖北省可休耕耕地规模减少和休耕规模弹性边界缩小.研究结论:应积极扩大休耕规模和范围,丰富休耕试点区域,正式建立目标多元化、模式多样化和实施常态化的耕地休耕制度,以粮食安全为前提实现对休耕的宏观调控.     

An evolutionary Cournot oligopoly model with imitators and perfect foresight best responders

We consider the competition among quantity setting players in a linear evolutionary environment. To set their outputs, players adopt, alternatively, the best response rule having perfect foresight or an imitative rule. Players are allowed to change their behavior through an evolutionary mechanism according to which the rule with better performance will attract more followers. The relevant stationary state of the model describes a scenario where players produce at the Cournot‐Nash level. Due to the presence of imitative behavior, we find that the number of players and implementation costs, needed to the best response exploitation, have an ambiguous role in determining the stability properties of the equilibrium and double stability thresholds can be observed. Differently, the role of the intensity of choice, representing the evolutionary propensity to switch to the most profitable rule, has a destabilizing role, in line with the common occurrence in evolutionary models. The global analysis of the model reveals that increasing values of the intensity of choice parameter determine increasing dynamic complexities for the internal attractor representing a population where both decision mechanisms coexist.     

Does buffet choice architecture affect intake? The effect of relocating butter at a breakfast buffet on food intake

The aim of this study was to investigate if a changed default reduces the intake of butter among students at a breakfast buffet. Students were divided into two groups and served themselves from a breakfast buffet. The control group was offered a buffet where the butter was easily accessible, whereas the intervention group was offered a buffet where a request had to be made for butter. Single packed portions of butter taken from each part of the buffet, the number of students, and the number of habitual users in each group were recorded. At the regular buffet, 67 of 115 students were habitual butter users and 81 packs of butter were taken. At the buffet with the changed default, 16 of the 56 students were habitual butter users. Seventeen packs of butter were taken from the buffet. Slightly displacing butter at a breakfast buffet and forcing students to ask for that option significantly reduced uptake.     

Optimizing suicide and trespass prevention on railways: a problem-solving model from the RESTRAIL project

Suicides and trespassing accidents result in more than 3800 fatalities in Europe, representing 88% of all fatalities occurring within the EU railway system. This paper presents a problem-solving model, which consists of a multistep approach structuring the analysis of a suicide or trespass-related problem on the railways. First, we present the method used to design, evaluate and improve the problem-solving model. Then we describe the model in detail: it comprises six steps with several subsequent actions, and each action is approached through a checklist of prompting questions and possible answers. At the end, we discuss the added value of this model for decision makers and its usability in the selection of optimal prevention measures.     

Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture

The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last 10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on long run economic growth and development.      

Leadership marketing: an exploratory study

In an era when collaboration is the key to business prosperity, the ability to develop one truly coherent and agile brand lived by its employees and delivered to external stakeholders has become extremely challenging. Unity between the internal brand and a company’s external image, when change is the only constant, has almost ceased to exist. The marketing function is frequently underemphasised at board level and its role is often devalued in leading organisational change. This paper concerns how marketing can partner with organisational leadership for a mutually beneficial exchange of skills and capabilities to be able to reinvent organisations rapidly enough to cope with shifts in the external business environment and create a sustainable future for the business. This paper explores the concept of “leadership marketing” from an interpretivist perspective which challenges the conventional view of marketing and leadership as two separate fields and offers a holistic approach for business management and brand alignment.