Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry‐Level Data

Changes in labor market institutions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This article documents and analyzes changes in income volatility using data for 11 industrialized countries, 22 industries and 35 years (1970–2004). The article has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor income has declined in parallel to the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the industry‐specific, idiosyncratic component of labor income volatility has hardly changed. Third, cross‐sectional heterogeneity is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high‐ and low‐skilled workers have become more volatile relative to the volatility of capital incomes. Fourth, the volatility of labor income relative to the volatility of capital income declines in the labor share. Trade openness has no clear‐cut impact.     

Thailand-Japan＇s Volume of Trade Influencing on Socio-economic and Well-Being Development Using Maximum Entropy Bootstrap

This paper is preliminary information on some empirical findings based on an analysis of Thailand＇s macroeconomic data. The purpose of the study is to quantify social-economic well-being development with special emphasis on poverty. The maximum entropy bootstrap was presented that did not require the property of stationarity. Moreover, the methodology was stratified both the ergodic theorem and the central limit theorem. Thailand＇s GINI index and Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade data cover the 14-year period from 1998 to 2011. There is a statistically significant negative non-linear relationship between endogenous Thailand＇s GINI index and exogenous Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade. The results confirmed that every lagged one percent increase in Thailand-Japan＇s volume of trade influenced by a decrease of Thailand＇s GINI index coefficient 0.039 percent with the asymmetric around 0-almost closed to range condition -0.034824348 at 2.5%.     

A Classroom Tariff-Setting Game

The author outlines a classroom tariff-setting game that allows students to explore the consequences of import tariffs imposed by large countries (countries able to influence world prices). Groups of students represent countries, which are organized into trading pairs. Each group's objective is to maximize welfare by choosing an appropriate ad valorem tariff that may be changed intermittently throughout the game. The game is built on a computable general-equilibrium model, which allows each nation's utility and terms of trade under alternative tariff regimes to be expressed quantitatively. The exercise encourages students to consider terms-of-trade improvements and efficiency losses resulting from large-country tariffs and provides a framework to discuss the Nash equilibrium of a tariff war. The game is a useful supplement to traditional teaching methods.     

The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins

This paper investigates a consumption-real exchange rate anomaly from the open macroeconomics literature known as the Backus-Smith puzzle. We both analytically and quantitatively examine how an expansion of trade along extensive margins can contribute to the puzzle's resolution. Our argument is based on 1) a wealth effect due to changes in the number of product varieties, 2) statistical inefficiency in measuring the number of product varieties, and 3) market incompleteness. Contrary to complete asset markets which, in general, feature overly strong risk sharing properties, changes in the number of product varieties under incomplete markets may produce a wealth effect under high trade elasticity. Since statistical agencies systematically fail to capture the welfare impact arising from that changes, data-consistent terms of trade and real exchange rates tend to appreciate due to this positive wealth effect. This provides a realistic correlation between data-consistent real exchange rates and consumption.     

对EMU启动前后欧盟国家贸易状况的实证研究

EMU的启动对EMU成员国、欧盟其他国家甚至全世界都有着很大的影响。但是在EMU启动至今已十年,它是否真的发挥了它应有的作用?为了研究这个问题本文选取了对EMU成员国贸易情况进行实证研究的角度来透视EMU启动所带来的影响。本文选取了1992～2007年的面板数据,并通过扩展引力模型实证检验了EMU对其成员国贸易的影响情况。本文研究结果表明:从整体上而言,EMU对其成员国的贸易影响是正面的,即:EMU的实施增加了EMU成员国与其它国家的双边贸易,但对于不同国家EMU的影响具有差异性。     

黑龙江省对俄贸易发展存在的问题及对策研究

目前,黑龙江省在对俄贸易、投资、经济技术合作等方面取得巨大成绩的同时,还存在着一系列急需解决的问题：对俄贸易企业的整体实力不强;进出口商品结构单一;商品货物贸易层次较低;出口产品技术含量低;缺乏本省名牌产品;市场贸易秩序与服务贸易体系不健全等,影响和制约了对俄贸易的进一步发展。促进对俄贸易的发展,必须转变外贸形式,优化贸易产品结构,着力打造本土企业品牌,提高商品技术含量,拓展能源原材料投资合作领域。同时,坚持＂以俄为主、注重日韩、兼顾其他＂的原则,大力开拓国际市场,从而促进黑龙江省对外贸易快速发展。     

中国对外国际物流贸易趋势分析与研究

采用整体分析与模型分析相结合的方式完成中国对外国际物流贸易趋势分析工作.整体分析采用表格分析和曲线分析的方式完成,针对整体分析存在定量分析不足的问题,采用计量分析方法,对中国对外国际贸易物流展开模型化分析.通过建立两个计量模型,最终定量确定了中国对外国际物流贸易趋势之所在.同时,基于整体分析和计量分析的结果,从宏观角度出发,为中国物流企业如何面对今后的国际物流竞争提出了富有针对性的具体对策和建议.     

Trade and Specialisation in Pollution Intensive Industries: North–South Evidence

Abstract

The pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) and the capital-labour hypothesis (KLH) state that the relative level of a country's environmental regulations and capital and labour endowments determines its comparative advantage respectively. Since these hypotheses lead to conflicting predictions as to whether the North or the South will specialise in pollution-intensive production, this paper examines whether changes in trade and specialisation patterns allow us to distinguish between pollution haven and factor endowment effects. We employ a methodology that enables us to present North-South trade patterns over time and to identify those periods when trade patterns were consistent with either the PHH and/or the KLH as a foundation for undertaking more detailed econometric studies.     

Institutionalism and New Trade Theory: Rethinking Comparative Advantage and Trade Policy

Gomory and Baumol (2000), and Samuelson (2004) have raised concerns about international trade’s future impact on U.S. national income. The focus is how globalization may affect the size and distribution across countries of gains from trade. Though their analysis is developed using a pure trade theoretical framework, it has strands in common with institutionalist thinking. Their findings spotlight the need for a new U.S. trade policy agenda aimed at maximizing the U.S. share of gains from trade, and complementing conventional Keynesian open economy macroeconomic analysis.     

Public Debt,Terms of Trade and Welfare: The Role of Capital Production Shares,External Balances,and Dynamic (In)efficiency

In view of still large external imbalances across the world economy and dramatically risen public debts in major advanced economies, this paper reconsiders the relationship between public debt, the terms of trade and welfare in a two-good, two-country overlapping generations model with technological differences across countries. We find that the terms of trade effect of a public debt shock depends only on international differences in capital production shares and the dynamic (in)efficiency of the world economy. As in a model with similar capital production shares, domestic welfare rises and foreign welfare decreases when Home has a positive external balance and the Golden Rule holds. Under dynamic efficiency, welfare decreases in the debt-expanding, net foreign creditor country if she has a relatively smaller capital production share, and if the welfare effect through the accumulation channel is negative. In contrast, under dynamic inefficiency she can increase her welfare by debt expansion.