量化思维在绿色建筑设计教学中的应用研究

重形态分析、轻客观量化的传统设计教学模式与当今社会的绿色设计与可持续发展理念背道而驰。随着绿色建筑设计思想的普及,如何在设计教学中强化量化思维,完善教学模式,是每一个教学工作者的义务和责任。通过反思与总结传统设计教学中的弊端,结合绿色建筑的核心设计原则,尝试性的探索了引导学生在设计过程中产生并形成量化思维的方法与规律。     

Efficient estimation of semiparametric conditional moment models with possibly nonsmooth residuals

This paper considers semiparametric efficient estimation of conditional moment models with possibly nonsmooth residuals in unknown parametric components (θ) and unknown functions (h) of endogenous variables. We show that: (1) the penalized sieve minimum distance (PSMD) estimator can simultaneously achieve root-n asymptotic normality of and nonparametric optimal convergence rate of , allowing for noncompact function parameter spaces; (2) a simple weighted bootstrap procedure consistently estimates the limiting distribution of the PSMD ; (3) the semiparametric efficiency bound formula of [Ai, C., Chen, X., 2003. Efficient estimation of models with conditional moment restrictions containing unknown functions. Econometrica, 71, 1795–1843] remains valid for conditional models with nonsmooth residuals, and the optimally weighted PSMD estimator achieves the bound; (4) the centered, profiled optimally weighted PSMD criterion is asymptotically chi-square distributed. We illustrate our theories using a partially linear quantile instrumental variables (IV) regression, a Monte Carlo study, and an empirical estimation of the shape-invariant quantile IV Engel curves.     

基于门限分位点回归的条件VaR风险度量

门限分位点回归模型是线性分位点回归模型的改进,是一种更加客观实际的非线性估计方法。利用该模型实证分析了单只股票(民生银行)的条件VaR。选择一种流动性风险指标作为条件,经过分析发现,由门限分位点回归模型得到结果能够更好地描述市场,也能更好地预测市场风险。     

Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate Nexus in African Markets

This paper examines the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in six African markets using monthly data for the period January 2007 to October 2015. A quantile regression approach is used. This methodology is shown to perform better than the ordinary least squares estimators, particularly when the conditional distribution is heterogeneous. Our empirical evidence reveals an interesting pattern in the association of these two financial markets in Africa, which shows that the negative relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is more apparent when exchange rates are extremely low or high. The negative relationship between the two variables is in line with the portfolio balance effect.     

中国财产保险需求影响因素的实证研究

运用中国1980-2009年的相关数据,引入六个解释变量,采用逐步回归方法,对中国财产保险需求的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:与人寿保险需求截然不同,经济增长、人均收入、风险意识对财产保险需求未发现有显著影响;而固定资产投资、汽车拥有量和货物运输量对财产保险需求有着显著的推动作用.实证结果进一步解释了财产保险市场结构严重失衡的状况.     

Prediction of the next hypercalcemia free period: application of random effect models with selection on first event

The length of repeated hypercalcemia free periods of patients with bone metastasis of breast cancer with at least one hypercalcemic event was modelled according to a generalized linear mixed model formulated in terms of transition probabilities and according to a latent variable model. In the former case the periods were assumed to be lognormally distributed with two variance components (patients and residue). In the latter case the conditional intensity given a patient was assumed to be the intensity of the Weibull distribution, while the random patient effect (frailty) was assumed to be drawn from a gamma distribution. In both cases the selection of only patients with at least one hypercalcemic event was taken into consideration. In both models the variance of the patient effect turned out to be negligible. For the second and later periods the Weibull appeared to fit better than the lognormal model. For the first period there was almost no information available.     

Varying Coefficient Regression Models: A Review and New Developments

Varying coefficient regression models are known to be very useful tools for analysing the relation between a response and a group of covariates. Their structure and interpretability are similar to those for the traditional linear regression model, but they are more flexible because of the infinite dimensionality of the corresponding parameter spaces. The aims of this paper are to give an overview on the existing methodological and theoretical developments for varying coefficient models and to discuss their extensions with some new developments. The new developments enable us to use different amount of smoothing for estimating different component functions in the models. They are for a flexible form of varying coefficient models that requires smoothing across different covariates' spaces and are based on the smooth backfitting technique that is admitted as a powerful technique for fitting structural regression models and is also known to free us from the curse of dimensionality.     

公司为什么放弃债务的收益呢？

经典资本结构理论认为债务具有税盾效应和财务杠杆效应,因此公司会选择适当的负债以获得债务的税收收益。但是,现实中一些公司的负债很低,甚至为零。公司为什么放弃债务的税收收益呢？本文以2007～2011年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,从行为公司金融的视角分析管理者能力是否导致公司采用“低杠杆”策略。结果表明,中国上市公司存在普遍的低杠杆现象,管理者能力的差异是导致公司采用“低杠杆”策略的重要原因。     

金融危机下人民币汇率变动对外贸的影响——以山东青岛为例

自人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率波幅明显增大,并呈现持续升值的势头,金融危机期间,人民币汇率波动更加频繁,势必对我国外贸造成一定程度的影响。以青岛进行实例分析,采取金融危机期间人民币汇率变动与青岛进出口贸易的数据建立回归模型,在分析人民币汇率变动的趋势与青岛对外贸易总体现状的基础上,对金融危机下人民币汇率变动对青岛外贸的影响进行了回归分析,得出金融危机下人民币汇率变动对青岛进口影响不显著,而对青岛出口影响较大的结论,并根据分析提出应对危机和发展对外贸易的政策建议。     

产业集群与农村剩余劳动力转移之间关系的协整分析

本文以江苏省1993～2003年产业集群与农村剩余劳动力转移之间的关系进行实证性研究。在利用单位根检验对变量平稳性考察的基础上.应用协整方法对变量的长期均衡进行分析,应用格兰杰因果检验方法对变量之间的因果关系进行经验性研究,最后对产业集群与产业结构高度化作了回归分析,得出的结论是产业集群促进了农村剩余劳动力转移。