不同地震动输入方向对大跨度连续刚构桥易损性影响分析

针对超高墩大跨度桥梁在地震作用下表现出的特殊响应特性,以苗子坪大跨度连续刚构桥为研究对象,建立三维有限元分析模型,采用增量动力分析法,系统研究了双向及三向地震作用下动力响应特性。研究结果表明：双向地震作用下,主墩在PGA=0.4g时轻微损伤概率达43%,引入竖向地震动后,主墩在PGA=0.2g时即出现22%的轻微损伤概率,完全损伤状态的超越概率增加约25%;支座系统方面,竖向地震动的引入使损伤发展速率显著提高,在PGA=0.4g时轻微损伤概率即达100%。     

抗战爆发后华商证券交易所沦为政策市的原因及影响

抗战爆发后,我国政经局势动荡,自由的经济与金融体制为统制经济与金融的体制所取代。关内外各个行政当局出于特定政治目的或政策的需要,在其控制区内或直接对华商证券交易所发号施令或改变其营业环境,以行政手段来左右华商证券交易所的拆分、撤并、设立、停业和复业,致使证交所蜕化为政策性的市场,沦为官方相机抉择的财经政策的工具,丧失了经营上的自主性和稳定性,既不能持续、稳定和有效地为产业融资服务,又不利于证交所自身的平稳发展。其中的教训需引以为戒。     

中国老年家庭的经济脆弱性与贫困

利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)2006和2009年的面板数据测度了老年家庭的经济脆弱性,检验各因素对经济脆弱性和贫困的相对影响力。老年家庭的经济脆弱性高于贫困;户主特征和家庭变量不同程度地影响到了经济脆弱性及贫困,代际间向上流动的私人转移支付对老年家庭的经济脆弱性和贫困没有作用;超过24%的非贫困家庭是经济脆弱性家庭;期望效用的脆弱性(VEU)方法表明,不平等虽然减少了脆弱性,但其影响经济脆弱性的力量最小,不可解释的风险是最重要的因素,异质性风险和协同性风险的力量居中。     

The Impact of Lending to Women on Household Vulnerability and Women’s Empowerment: Evidence from India

Impact evaluation studies routinely find that lending to women benefits their households. However, a number of them also find that this may not empower the women concerned. This seemingly paradoxical conclusion is confirmed by our study with respect to a lending program in rural India. We investigate this result by examining a combination of loan-use data and borrower-testimonies. We find that loans procured by women are often diverted into enhancing household’s assets and incomes. This combined with woman’s lack of co-ownership of family’s productive assets, we conclude, results in her disempowerment. If empowering women is a crucial objective, then the patriarchal hold on productive assets must be challenged.     

A composite indicator model to assess natural disaster risks in industry on a spatial level

In the event of natural disasters, industrial production sites can be affected by both direct physical damage and indirect damage. The indirect damage, which often exceeds the direct ones in value, mainly arises from business interruptions resulting from the impairment of information and material flows as well as from domino effects in interlaced supply chains. The importance of industry for society and the domino effects often result in severe economic, social, and environmental consequences of industrial disasters making industrial risk management an important task for risk managers at the administrative level (e.g. civil protection authorities). Since the possible industrial disaster damage depends not only on hazard and exposure but also on the vulnerability of a system, an effective and efficient industrial risk management requires information about the system’s regionalized vulnerability. This paper presents a new methodology for structural industrial vulnerability assessment based on production factors that enables to assess the regional industrial disaster vulnerability. In order to capture industry-specific vulnerability factors and to account for the processes underlying regional industrial vulnerability, a two-stage approach is developed. This approach combines a composite indicator model to assess sector-specific vulnerability indices (V_s) with a new regionalization method. The composite indicator model is based on methodologies from the field of multicriteria decision analysis (MultiAttribute Value Theory) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method is applied to correct the (V_s) for interdependencies among the indicators. Finally, the developed approach is applied to an exemplar case study and the industrial vulnerability of 44 administrative districts in the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg is assessed.     

Ethical Decision-Making by Consumers: The Roles of Product Harm and Consumer Vulnerability

The primary purpose of this study was to examine the effects of perceptions of product harm and consumer vulnerability on ethical evaluations of target marketing strategies. We first established whether subjects are able to accurately judge the harmfulness of a product through labeling alone, and whether they could differentiate consumers who were more or less vulnerable. The results suggest that without the presence of a prime, subjects who depended on implicit memory or guess were able to detect differences in “sin” and “non-sin” products and consumer vulnerability, but were far less likely to be able to distinguish among high and low levels of product harm and consumer vulnerability. The inability to accurately identify high and low levels of product harm and consumer vulnerability impacted their perceptions of the ethicality of target marketing strategies, such that only four out of 18 target marketing strategies were judged as unethical. Thus, our findings contradict previous research that found subjects judged many more of the integrated strategies as unethical [Smith and Cooper-Martin, J Market 61(1997) 1]. Our results suggest that assessing ethical evaluations of strategies varying in product harm, and consumer vulnerability may only be relevant if consumers can accurately identify product harm.