基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

义乌、重庆小商品市场发展比较及启示

缺乏先天资源优势的浙江义乌,通过发展国际小商品贸易,带动相关产业链,取得了极大的成功.同样身处内陆的重庆市小商品市场,拥有更多资源优势,合理规划将改进现有格局.提升GDP贡献力.本文通过对比重庆与义乌小商品市场的现状,分析了重庆小商品市场目前存在的主要问题.在总结义鸟小商品市场的优势及成因的基础上,提出了改进重庆小商品市场生态链的策略.     

从GDP政治到生态政治——中国循环经济发展的重要前提

阐述了论题的来由，分析了GDP政治及其对循环经济发展的阻碍作用，提出了要树立生态可续型社会、可持续发展社会的发展现；要摈弃GDP政治观念，在符合中华民族总体利益的前提下，引入并在研究、发展和运用生态政治理论的进程中寻求问题的解；确立环境价值观念，明确环境价值的数量关系，在经济发展中计量环境成本；在推进循环经济的发展进程中，要注重发挥生态政治和政府部门的作用。     

边疆民族地区经济增长与就业关系比较研究

通过建立GDP就业模型揭示经济增长与就业的内在关系。要增加就业降低失业率，必须保持快速和稳定的经济增长和提高GDP就业弹性。比较分析边疆少数民族地区和东部发达地区的GDP就业弹性，发现由于东部发达地区经济更依赖于资本和技术进步，其GDP就业弹性、GDP对就业的“指数效应”比边疆少数民族地区的小。同时随着边疆少数民族地区经济的资本有机构成逐渐提高和进一步的资本深化，GDP就业弹性也在逐渐下降。东部发达地区GDP对就业的“乘数效应”比边疆民族地区的大，说明了东部发达地区依然是吸收就业和农村剩余劳动力的主要地区，并提出增加就业的对策建议。     

个人所得税统计数据反映的两个经济现象

自改革开放以来,个人所得税保持着稳定的增长趋势,反映了我国国民收入分配结构的变迁,同时,作为一种制度,个税制度正在成为越来越重要的一种国家干预经济的手段。作为初次分配的一种直接反映,个人所得税比重的地域差异、结构差异反映着我国的收入差距和分配公平问题。     

中国东部地区FDI、出口与经济增长的关系

运用协整理论,对东部地区1985年~2005年的年度数据进行实证分析。结果表明:FD I、出口和经济增长间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,出口和外商直接投资是东部地区经济增长的重要驱动因素。     

GDP质量的系统分析与改善对策——以甘肃省为例

GDP已经成为世界公认的衡量经济增长速度的指标,但它只是单纯从数量上反映经济增长。GDP外部质量特征主要体现在年平均发展速度、年地区发展的离散系数上;内部质量特征则包括支出法构成、收入法构成、三次产业构成、要素的贡献率、能源和原材料消耗等方面。应综合GDP的内部质量指标和外部质量指标编制GDP综合质量指标评价体系,弥补单一GDP指标的不足。     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth.     

中国国内生产总值与教育之间关系的实证分析

本文从柯布-道格拉斯生产函数入手,将劳动力按受教育程度划分为四类分别进行处理。主要就中国国内生产总值(GDP)与各等教育程度劳动力和投资之间关系进行单整和协整检验,并建立误差修正模型(ECM),然后在协整条件下对各等教育程度劳动力与GDP的长、短期关系进行分析。文章的实证结果将为我国有关部门的政策决策提供有力依据。