Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

A股市场过度反应的新证据——基于A股和H股估值变化的视角

传统的检验市场过度反应的方法是采用De Bondt和Thaler构造的赢家组合和输家组合,通过检验赢家组合和输家组合的超额收益率来判断市场是否存在过度反应。有别于传统的检验市场过度反应的方法,本文基于我国股票市场上A股和H股估值变化的特殊视角,实证分析了我国A股市场存在的过度反应现象。     

基于衍生型环境BSC的绩效评价指标体系设计——以石化企业为例

衍生型环境BSC的构建使环境管理对经济成功贡献之间所暗存的因果关系更明晰化、可视化,为促进企业成功实施环保战略提供了管理工具和方法。在国内外相关文献的理论指导下,探讨了衍生型环境BSC的绩效评价指标体系的构建路径和基本架构。把环保战略转化为因果关系耦合的目标和指标,是构建衍生型环境BSC绩效评价指标体系的重要依据。衍生型环境BSC需要从四个维度——财务、客户、内部流程和学习与成长——挖掘与环境相关的内容。结合石化企业的行业背景和企业资料进行了案例分析,为其构建衍生型环境BSC提供一种思路和框架。     

公共政策评估研究综述

政策评估是政策运行过程这一有机链条中的重要一环,对于改进政策制定系统,克服政策运行中的弊端和障碍,提高政策水平具有深远的意义。但是长期以来人们对这一环节的重视不够,通过对政策评估的研究,以其提高大家对政策评估重要性的认识。     

印度对华反倾销实践及其评价

本文在全面介绍印度对华反倾销调查的案件数量、涉案产品类别、我国企业应诉情况、案件最终裁决情况以及印度对华反倾销中有关非市场经济问题的规定的基础上，分析和总结了印度对华反倾销案件所具有的若干特点，特别是其中与WTO规则不相符合的某些具体做法，以期为我国企业今后应诉印度反倾销提供借鉴，为政府部门和相关研究机构研究应对策略提供参考。     

Tourism at Costalegre,Mexico: An ecosystem services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures

Tourism, as all human activities, is dependent on the natural environment and its respective ecosystem services (ES). Different user groups manage and consume these touristic ES differently, resulting in discrepancies and potential conflicts. Despite the urgency to find inclusive local approaches for sustainable development, tourism studies still analyze socio-economic and ecological impacts separately and lack integrated social–ecological approaches to improve foresight in tourism planning. Based on a growing concern regarding the future of Costalegre on the Jalisco coast of Western Mexico, we analyze through interviews, surveys, and participant observation the dependence of tourism on specific ecosystem services and conduct a scenario analysis which shows present and future implications for the social–ecological system. Furthermore, this analysis shows in detail how different scenarios change ES provision and people's livelihoods. Key findings include identifying freshwater provision and cultural ES as the most important touristic ES. At a regional scale, peasants in ejidos are the main ES stewards, whereas high-class tourism facilities constitute important local stewards. Benefits, mainly access to freshwater and the beach, are unequally distributed, provoking conflicts among different ES user groups that may escalate in the near future. Improved communication between all user groups and strengthening of key political actors seem to be the most immediate recommendations to ensure the long term sustainability of this particular region. This work may contribute to improved planning and decision-making as our ES based scenarios are a first step to integrate social–ecological knowledge into improved decision-making. At a local scale, the study reveals the most likely future development options and their social and ecological consequences. It could also serve as a baseline for informed policy making.     

关于我国保险公司履行社会责任的综合评价——基于利益相关者理论的视角

企业社会责任的理念源于20世纪初的美国。随着上世纪80年代利益相关者理论的提出,学术界对企业社会责任的研究进入新领域。保险业作为特殊的金融服务机构其各方利益相关者的利益冲突亦随着经济社会的发展逐步凸显。本文基于利益相关者理论的视角,对保险公司社会责任进行了界定,并对我国保险公司目前履行社会责任存在的问题进行了研究和分析,在此基础上提出了改进建议。     

银团贷款在控制政府融资平台风险中的应用——基于模糊综合风险评价的分析

地方政府融资平台信息不透明、治理结构不健全等情况给金融机构信贷风险控制带来挑战.银团贷款因为能提高信息共享、遏制信贷欺诈、分散信贷风险,所以能对控制集团客户风险发挥积极作用.可以模糊综合评价模型为基础,分析政府融资平台引入银团贷款模式后的风险评价,为控制地方政府融资平台信贷风险提供思路.     

Quality of service and segmentation in the MICE industry: An approximation based on fuzzy logic

This article aims to evaluate the service quality experienced at academic conferences held at the Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja in Ecuador. Our approach is based on fuzzy logic and ideal solutions to calculate a global attendee satisfaction index for specific market segments: Gender, nationality, and age. Current literature on the service quality experienced by conference attendees is still scarce. Our results show that the analyzed segments experience varying levels of satisfaction, and that the more influential attributes to each of them are also different. Our results can be applied to improve the competitiveness of Loja and that of Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja.