Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?

In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation.     

Organization,technology and management innovations through acquisition in China’s pork value chains: The case of the Smithfield acquisition by Shuanghui

This paper reviews the changes in Shuanghui’s operations after the Smithfield acquisition as well as transformations in China’s pork industries. As income grows and diets change, there has been an increasing demand for high-quality pork and more processed pork products. However, China’s swine and pork industries are still at an early stage of development as evidenced by the low market concentration, intensive use of labour, a proliferation of intermediaries, and low levels of technology. Bounded by the established consumer preferences for freshness and the status quo in the midstream and upstream segments, Shuanghui is in a slow process of upgrading its domestic operations with Smithfield’s leading brands, import of chilled and frozen pork, advanced technologies, and the vertically integrated business model after this acquisition. In particular, it remains unclear whether Shuanghui can follow Smithfield’s experience to establish stable and safe hog supplies by multiplying self-owned hog farms, maintain and expand its current contracts with large-scale commercial hog farms, or rely more on global sourcing of pork primarily from the U.S.     

The valuation relevance of environmental performance revisited: The moderating role of environmental provisions

This study attempts to broaden our understanding of the value relevance of environmental performance by providing empirical evidence on the moderating role of financial environmental reporting. Previous studies find that firms' environmental performance can be both positively and negatively associated with market value. Such contradictory findings can be attributed to the fact that environmental performance is associated with future economic benefits and costs. This study suggests that firms with recognized environmental provisions on their balance sheets enable investors to disentangle these opposite effects either by signaling strong future financial performance or by enhancing the reliability of environmental performance information. Regardless of the mechanism by which this moderation effect is invoked, it is hypothesized that capital market participants place a positive and significantly higher value on the environmental performance ratings of firms with recognized environmental provisions than on the ratings of firms without environmental provisions. Utilizing a sample of 692 firm-year observations of French listed firms and employing a linear price-level model that associates the market value of a firm's equity with its environmental performance, I provide empirical evidence to corroborate this thesis. In addition to contributing to the academic debate on the market valuation implications of environmental performance, this study intends to provide useful insights from a country that can be considered a pioneer of environmental reporting legislation; hence, it provides valuable lessons for other jurisdictions that are in the process of developing their sustainability reporting regulations. Finally, the findings of this study support the calls for more integrated reporting showing that the interaction of financial and non-financial information has market valuation implications.     

Exploring an in-store customer journey for customers shopping for outdoor apparel

The omni-channel shopping phenomenon creates major challenges for brick-and-mortar stores to remain relevant and appeal to customers. A way to counteract these challenges is to offer customers a journey where in-store experiences enable them to encounter numerous physical and virtual touchpoints evoked by affective, cognitive, physical, relational, sensorial and symbolic responses. This study ascertained the customer journey activated by the experiences causing value and resulting in intentions to revisit a retailer specializing in outdoor apparel. Our web-based survey collected 300 valid responses for analyses. The statistical analyses confirmed a positive relationship between the customer in-shop experience factors and the shopping trip value experienced, which in turn mediated the relationship with intention to repatronage. Some conclusions are made and various suggestions for future research are recommended.     

工资对个人劳动供给的非线性影响：部门市场化程度差异视角

从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展，我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异，劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据，结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型，依托部门市场化程度的差异性，文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论：第一，我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二，工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示，工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点"，工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三，劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四，随着年龄增长、人力资本积累，个人劳动时间供给趋于降低，签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加，而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看，无论是市场部门还是公共部门，我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲"，国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。     

Coffee value chains on the move: Evidence in Ethiopia

Important changes have happened to the upstream segment of the coffee sector in Ethiopia - Africa’s biggest - in the last decade, as illustrated by the increasing adoption of improved production, harvest, and post-harvest practices. Upstream marketing has also improved and there have been large investments in processing capacity, shown by the extended coverage of wet mills. These improved practices are shown to be associated with positive impacts on coffee productivity and prices. Changes appear to be linked with multiple factors including local market reform, greater presence of public extension agents, high international prices, and a push for certification by international buyers. On the other hand, a combination of production (lack of improved seedlings, weather and disease shocks) as well as institutional issues (saving constraints and lack of vertical integration and traceability) have seemingly impeded more widespread uptake of improved practices and therefore better farm performance. The study illustrates the significant complexity in obtaining transformation at the farm level in these settings.     

Labor market analysis through transformations and robust multivariate models

The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation.     

乡镇企业与小城镇良性互动的对策思考

发展乡镇企业和小城镇,是中国解决农业、农村、农民问题的两个重大战略和根本方针,而二者又是互相影响、相互制约的。它们的协调发展对发展农业、富裕农民、繁荣农村、实现国民经济的快速健康发展具有重要意义。应坚持保护农业和农民利益、市场化、法制化等原则,从宏观和微观方面采取得力措施,实现二者的良性互动。     

The Performance of Service Industries in Canada: A Real Value Analysis

The performance of service industries in Canada has been lower than that of good industries over the last four decades, with noticeable exceptions such as for railways and telecommunication carriers. Service industries were less economically (and technically) efficient in that they generated less output value (quantity) per hour worked (level and growth) or per combined unit of labour and capital (multifactor productivity growth) than good industries. The relative output price of services declined slightly over time compared with goods. At the disaggregated level, changing relative output prices were substantial and proved to be an important factor explaining the relative satisfactory economic performance of many service industries despite their low technical performance. Nevertheless, the output share of service industries increased over that period, sustained, mainly, by the growing recourse of all firms to outsourcing of services.     

Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?

The objective of this paper is to determine the best predictor of equity market crashes by focusing particularly on volatility and market liquidity. In finance, volatility has traditionally been regarded as the best measure of market risk. However, this paper shows that the forecast value of market liquidity, in particular our modified calculated market depth, predicts equity market crashes much more accurately than does the forecast values of EGARCH or Implied Volatility.