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1.
In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation. 相似文献
2.
This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series. 相似文献
3.
Daniel A. Pellathy Diane A. Mollenkopf Theodore P. Stank Chad W. Autry 《Journal of Business Logistics》2019,40(2):81-104
The centrality of cross‐functional integration (CFI) to supply chain theory and practice has long been recognized. Yet researchers continue to struggle with consistently defining or measuring the CFI construct, thus limiting the utility of CFI research. This research develops (1) a comprehensive definition of CFI that synthesizes previous supply chain research and (2) a valid set of scale items that measure the conceptual domain outlined by this definition. The goal is to build a common foundation for extending knowledge on CFI's antecedents and consequences, and ultimately to improve scholars’ ability to guide a broader practitioner community still struggling to achieve integration in their organizations. 相似文献
4.
《管理科学学报(英文)》2021,6(3):324-335
Expected shortfall (ES) is a popular risk measure and plays an important role in risk and portfolio management. Recently, change-point detection of risk measures has been attracting much attention in finance. Based on the self-normalized CUSUM statistic in Fan, Glynn and Pelger (2018) and the Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) algorithm in Fryzlewicz (2014), this paper proposes a variant WBS procedure to detect and estimate change points of ES in time series. The strengthened Schwarz information criterion is also introduced to determine the number of change points. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of our variant WBS procedure about ES in time series. An empirical application is given to illustrate the usefulness of our procedure. 相似文献
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冒萍 《湖北财经高等专科学校学报》2005,17(5):46-48
高校后勤财务管理存在资产流失严重、收入与成本费用核算不够规范、财务管理制度不够完善、工作效率不高等问题,应采取理顺关系、改变观念、建章立制、规范管理、转变职能、加强队伍建设等措施予以完善。 相似文献
8.
国家助学贷款的风险与防范 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
霍爱玲 《西安财经学院学报》2004,17(1):91-93
国家助学贷款是一个政治、福利、教育、金融概念的混合体。本文主要从国家助学贷款发放的现状、存在的问题人手,提出了应加强维护信用制度的法律建设;创建良好的社会信用环境;改进管理制度与操作模式;加强各部门的协调与沟通等防范措施。 相似文献
9.
本文紧密结合实例,详细阐述了以系统论的思想,应用发展TQM,配以人本论的观念形成新产品批量生产能力的,立体管理思路、内容、应用及效果。 相似文献
10.
吴其付 《桂林旅游高等专科学校学报》2004,15(3):68-71
非典给中国旅游业带来了强烈的冲击,作为旅游业的龙头,旅行社遭到了惨重的经济损失。在旅行社全行业处于极度萧条的时段内,政府出台了一系列的措施来扶持旅行社的发展,各旅行社也纷纷采取各种措施力图自救,无论是政府救助还是企业自救,在某种程度上都存在一定的不足之处。 相似文献