服务业集聚与产业结构优化关系探究

随着全球化进程的不断加快，服务业集聚已经成为人们普遍关注的话题。产业集聚在获得规模效应的同时避免了垄断现象的产生，服务业集聚不但拥有这样的优势，而且还有自己独特的形成和发展特点。从产业结构的优化角度切入，借助区位商和专门化率等分析指标，以江苏省和上海市为例，对服务业集聚的形成进行理论和实证分析，提出产业结构的优化对于服务业集聚的形成和发展有着积极的作用。合理的产业结构能够为服务业集聚提供坚实的基础，各地区应该根据各自的产业特点积极的进行优化，催生服务业集聚，加快本地区经济的进一步发展。     

香港发行人民币债券的效应与对策分析

在香港发行人民币债券，既是香港特区政府多年来的愿望，也是人民币国际化的重要一步，因此具有极其重要的意义。本文通过在香港发行人民币债券对内地和香港的积极作用和消极作用的分析，提出了在港发行人民币债券应注意的问题以及相关对策建议。     

Why are Small Firms Different? Managers’ Views

Do incentives differ between large and small organizations? Results from a representative survey of compensation managers are used to shed light on the issues. I find that (i) small establishments rely less on pecuniary incentives, and have a significantly more hostile attitude towards incentive schemes based on competition and relative rewards; (ii) large units are more vulnerable to mechanisms of efficiency wages, effects that remain even after controlling for differences in monitoring ability; (iii) large units are more prone to indicate that negative reciprocity is important, and that their employees care about relative pay. I argue that these findings fit with behavioral stories of incentives and motivation, in particular those stressing group interaction effects, inequity aversion and gift exchange.     

Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets

We examine the presence or absence of asymmetric volatility in the exchange rates of Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY), all against US dollar. Our investigation is based on a variant of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model, using daily realized variance and return series from 1996 to 2004. We find that a depreciation against USD leads to significantly greater volatility than an appreciation for AUD and GBP, whereas the opposite is true for JPY. Relative to volatility on days following a positive one-standard-deviation return, volatility on days following a negative one-standard-deviation return is higher by 6.6% for AUD, 6.1% for GBP, and 21.2% for JPY. The realized volatility of EUR appears to be symmetric. These results are robust to the removal of jump component from realized volatility and the sub-samplings defined by structural-changes. The asymmetry in AUD, GBP and JPY appears to be embedded in the continuous component of realized volatility rather than the jump component.     

基于引力模型的中美农产品贸易边境效应研究

针对中美两国在农产品贸易上的新变化,应用引力模型的派生模型——边境效应引力模型对中美两国农产品贸易的流量和流向进行理论和实证研究。首先介绍了边境效应引力模型基本模型的推导过程,并引入了调整模型。然后采用1987至2005年其中5年的截面数据进行计算,结果发现:中美农产品贸易的边境效应显著存在,且呈逐年下降趋势;两国之间的农产品贸易边境效应存在流向和区域上的差异;距离的平方并不影响模型的可靠性。     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

强化企业集团财务预算管理

财务预算是行为计划的量化,能使管理者全盘考虑整个企业集团价值链之间的相互联系,保证企业各项目标的不断提高和优化,是体现企业业绩的一种好的管理模式。财务预算的全过程会促进管理者及全体员工面向未来,促进发展,有助于增强预见性,避免盲目行为,激励员工完成企业的目标。强化企业集团的财务预算管理,必须采取一系列对策措施,才能行之有效。     

Complementarity, coordination and compatibility: The role of fixed costs in the economics of systems

We analyze industry equilibrium and incentive to compatibility when goods produced by different producers generate utility only when consumed as component parts of a system. We assume the presence of two systems, each composed of some basic component and a set of differentiated complementary products. The combination of complementarity between the two components of the system and of fixed costs in the production of the complementary product results in a form of network effect. We focus on the role played by the size of the fixed costs in the production of the complementary products in determining the size of this system effect and, by this means, the structure and types of equilibria that may be observed: monopolistic or duopolistic, symmetric or asymmetric. We also highlight the consequence of the same fixed costs for the private and social incentives to render the systems compatible.     

旅游业乘数研究辨正

乘数效应是研究旅游业经济影响中广泛使用的一种方法.但"旅游业乘数"是一个伪命题,现有的模型、计算方法是不可靠的,广泛引用的数据也不可信.本文分析了旅游业乘数研究的不足,并提出了几点建议.     

社会养老保险新政的运行效果分析——基于沈阳市国有大型企业的调查

利用调查数据重点考察了社会养老保险新政的实际运行效果,指出了目前存在职工参保意愿不强烈、政策有效性尚不明显、对制度长期建设缺乏信心等现实问题,以期对养老保险制度的改革完善提供理论和政策依据。