The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

On Measuring the Value of a Nonmarket Good Using Market Data

We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold.     

谈编辑方法论

编辑有法,这是不容质疑的。编辑方法是编辑学理论的一个重要研究范畴。然而编辑学现状表明,我们对编辑方法论的研究缺乏应有的重视。编辑方法是反映编辑工作全过程中核心内容的方法。包括选题方法、组稿方法、审稿方法、加工方法和校对方法。在当今信息时代,编辑应将计算机技术的方法纳入到编辑方法之中。要有效实施方法还应遵循一些编辑方法的原则。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

防止利用关联方交易操纵利润的方法

目前,一些上市公司利用关联方交易操纵利润、粉饰会计报表,造成会计信息的严重失真,为此,规范关联交易定价政策、逐步减少现有可避免的关联交易、制止新的应避免的关联交易产生十分必要。     

现代企业制度下如何当好企业领导的思考

在现代企业制度条件下如何当好企业领导是一个新的课题。本文提出现代企业制度要求有现代企业领导者,而当好现代企业领导者,必须以人才为根本,抓好人力资源的开发和利用;必须努力提高企业领导者的领导水平,同时要强化创新意识,开拓创新实践。     

关于新一轮国土规划性质及其理论体系建设的思考

从新时期国土规划的性质及地位出发,运用多学科综合研究国土规划的理论体系建设问题,在此基础上运用层次分析法探讨国土规划的编制思路,最后提出未来国土规划应着力解决的重点。     

Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

翻译方法技巧谈

本文从翻译理论和实践两个方面探讨了一些翻译方法和技巧,并用实例说明了掌这些方法和技巧后的翻译效果。作者同时认为在翻译中对翻译理论和翻译实践还有许多探讨空间。