Official FX interventions through derivatives

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swap auctions carried out by the Brazilian Central Bank on the USDBRL exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the exchange rate in a significant way, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. We show that during our sample period auctions of contracts in which the Central Bank took a short position in USD had larger effects than those in which the Central Bank took a long position. The supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.     

Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?

We investigate the relationship between a country's domestic financial development and the (composition of its) net foreign asset position using a pooled mean group estimator and data for 50 countries for the 1970–2007 period. The results show that financial development reduces a country's long-run net foreign asset position. In addition, financial development leads to higher net equity and lower net debt positions. These findings confirm the theoretical predictions of Mendoza et al. (2009). The results are robust to using different indicators of financial development and inclusion of the level of development of a country in the cointegrating relationship.     

Cost-efficacy analysis of biological treatments in psoriasis: an 18-month assessment

Summary

This study compared the cost-efficacy of the following approved biological treatment strategies for plaque psoriasis over 18 months: (1) alefacept 15 mg intramuscularly weekly for two 12-week courses; (2) efalizumab 1 mg/kg subcutaneously (SC) weekly; and (3) etanercept 50 mg SC twice weekly for 12 weeks followed by a maintenance dose of 50 mg weekly. Direct utilisation-related costs included drug costs, office fees, injection fees and costs incurred due to adverse events and laboratory monitoring. Efficacy was based on response rates from large-scale clinical trials. At 18 months, total utilisation-related costs for alefacept, efalizumab and etanercept were $26,667, $33,365 and $32,962, respectively. Cost-efficacy, calculated using the corresponding response rates for the three therapies, was comparable ($66,669, $75,828 and $61,041, respectively). Thus, for patients with moderate to severe psoriasis who have responded to therapy, two 12-week courses of alefacept 7 months apart, or weekly maintenance treatment with efalizumab or etanercept, resulted in comparable total cost-efficacy.     

Staged venture capital contracting with ratchets and liquidation rights

This paper uses real options analysis to study later round financing in the presence of two standard venture capital contracting provisions: anti-dilution (ratchet) and liquidation preference. We argue that such provisions can preclude financing of a positive NPV venture in the case of a large follow-on financing relative to firm value. Liquidation preference contracting at multiples greater than one is not feasible in the later round if the financing is small relative to firm value. We highlight an interaction effect between the two provisions: increasing the liquidation multiple can help to avoid dilution and the need for the prior venture capitalist to waive ratchet provisions.     

Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

We examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies, which applied BMA, investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the effect of R&D due to data unavailability. We extend these studies by proposing to capture the investment in R&D by the number of Nobel prizes in science. Using our indicator, the estimates show that R&D exerts a positive effect on long-term growth. This result is robust to many different parameter and model prior structures as well as to alternative definitions of R&D indicator.     

公路30m箱梁预制施工方法探讨

文章以广西河池市金城江五桥项目为例,通过改变箱梁内模结构,并采取相应砼浇筑顺序,从根本上解决了箱梁底板砼浇筑质量难以保证的问题,供其他类型梁体预制参考与借鉴。     

Can national infrastructure spending reduce local unemployment? Evidence from an Australian roads program

We examine the effect of a federally-funded local infrastructure spending program on local unemployment rates. To address the likely funding endogeneity problem, we exploit variation in spending due to pork-barreling, and find that higher government expenditure on roads substantially reduces local unemployment.